Mainz vs Borussia Dortmund: Mainz to try and cause an upset against a Dortmund team with momentum?

Mainz vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Odds on 27 September 2025

Bo Henriksen’s Mainz enters this game with confidence after a strong performance in a 4-1 win over Augsburg, boosted by the rise of players like Kaishu Sano. Despite that, their offensive output remains somewhat inefficient, and injuries/suspensions have caused influential players such as Dominik Kohr to be banned, and this is expected to disrupt their setup. Niko Kovač's team is also riding a wave of form as they are unbeaten in their recent matches, showing improved defensive stability, and benefiting from sharpness in attack via Guirassy, Beier, and others. 

This game seems poised for a tactical duel where Mainz will try to press early, disrupt Dortmund’s build-up, and hope to catch them on transitions. Dortmund will aim to control large chunks of possession, exploit space out wide, and punish lapses.

Mainz: Forms and Statistics

Mainz show a mixed bag at home. Mainz is capable of strong attacking output, but also opening themselves defensively. Their goal average is between 1.33 - 1.67 per home match in recent matches, but they concede too often. With absences in defence, their stability is under pressure. Their recent win against Augsburg gives an injection of belief, but finishing efficiency and defensive organisation remain areas needing improvement.

Mainz - Lineups

🔖 Mainz Predicted Lineup (3-4-2-1)

Zentner; Costa, Bell, Hanche-Olsen; Widmer, Sano, Amiri, Mwene; Nebel, Nordin; Sieb

⛔️ Unavailable: Dominik Kohr (suspended), Anthony Caci (out), Benedict Hollerbach (doubtful), Daniel Gleiber (out), Maxim Dal (out)

👤 Head coach: Bo Henriksen

Borussia Dortmund: Forms and Statistics

Dortmund have been consistent away from home, scoring regularly and showing improved defensive shape. Despite missing some personnel, Dortmund managed to control games, apply pressure, and exploit opponent errors. Their conversion in attack is sharper than Mainz’s, their squad depth helps when facing adversity, and their unbeaten away streak gives them an edge in matches where Mainz commonly press.

Borussia Dortmund - Lineups

🔖 Borussia Dortmund Predicted Lineup (3-4-2-1)

Kobel; Anton, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini; Ryerson, Sabitzer, Nmecha, Svensson; Adeyemi, Beier; Guirassy

⛔️ Unavailable: Emre Can (out), Julien Duranville (out), Niklas Süle (out), Fábio Silva (doubtful), Aaron Anselmino (doubtful)

👤 Head coach: Niko Kovač

Mainz vs Borussia Dortmund match prediction 27 September 2025

• In 5 of the last 6 games between Mainz and Borussia Dortmund, bet on over 2.5 goals has played. The bet is offered on the Betway bookmaker website for odds of 1.72 odds;
• In 5 of the last 6 games between Mainz and Borussia Dortmund, bet on BTTS has played. The bet is offered on the Betway bookmaker website for odds of 1.63 odds;
• In the last 10 games between Mainz and Borussia Dortmund, bet on under 10.5 corners has played. The bet is offered on the Betway bookmaker website for odds of 1.56 odds;

Mainz vs Borussia Dortmund match prediction 27 September 2025

Mainz have picked up just 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 6 outings across all competitions. Mainz historically struggled to win at home against Dortmund as they have lost the majority of their last 10 home matches against them, though there have been recent surprises. Dortmund, in contrast, are unbeaten in their last 6 matches (4 wins, 2 draws), averaging about 2.33 goals per game while conceding about. Dortmund’s away form is solid as the team has a few big defensive lapses leading to several clean sheets, and consistent scoring in their road games.

A Dortmund with momentum is slightly ahead in this game as the team is more consistent, has better converting chances, and is less affected by recent setbacks. But Mainz, especially at home, is dangerous and capable of catching Dortmund cold if they get sloppy. We expect both teams to score and Dortmund to potentially win or draw. 

Below are our predictions

Our match prediction: is BTTS for a coefficient of 1.63 in the Betway bookmaker.

Our betting tip on the match: is over 2.5 goals for a coefficient of 1.72 in the Bet365 bookmaker.

Lastly: is W2 to win for a coefficient of 2.12 in the 1XBet bookmaker.