Mainz vs St Pauli Prediction: The home side should get the 3 points

Mainz vs St Pauli: Prediction for the Match on December 21, 2025

Mainz will face St Pauli in a Bundesliga match at Mewa Arena on December 21, 2025. Mainz, sitting in 18th place with 7 points, will take on 16th-placed St Pauli, who has 11 points. Mainz has lost 5 of their last 7 home matches, while St Pauli has lost 5 of their last 9 away games.

Mainz: Form and Statistics

Mainz 05 has a strong recent record in this fixture, and they hold a psychological edge after winning the last two meetings, including a 2-0 victory at home last season. This is reflected in our 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs FC St. Pauli prediction. Both teams are fighting to avoid relegation, which should make for a tense, hard-fought match. Mainz's new coach, Urs Fischer, has already made an impact, as seen in their recent results. A standout performance was their 2-2 draw at Bayern Munich, where they fought hard to secure a point. They followed that with a 1-1 draw at Lech Poznan in the UEFA Conference League. Mainz now look more organized and are playing a more defensive style under Fischer.

FSV Mainz 05: Team News

St. Pauli, known for their aggressive pressing under Alexander Blessin, will face a tough challenge. Although St. Pauli is not the most talented team in the Bundesliga, their high pressing often forces opponents to play wide. However, Mainz has become better at maintaining their shape, making them a dangerous threat on the counterattack.

Injury List:

Anthony Caci (Thigh) - Out

Maxim Dal (Knee) - Out

Robin Zentner (Groin) - Out

Phillipp Mwene (Groin) - Out

Maxim Leitsch (Thigh) - Out

Sota Kawasaki (Hip) - Out

Nadiem Amiri (Muscle) - Doubt

Silvan Widmer (Muscle) - Doubt

Niklas Tauer (Cruciate Ligament) - Doubt

Mainz Expected Lineup

Batz (GK), Da Costa (DF), Kohr (DF), Bell (DF), Potulski (DF), Veratschnig (DF), Boving (MF), Maloney (MF), Sano (MF), Jae-Sung (MF), Hollerbach (AT)

St Pauli: Form and Statistics

Nadiem Amiri has been one of the Bundesliga’s most reliable scorers this season, with 3 goals in 12 appearances for Mainz. On the other hand, St. Pauli’s top scorer is Andreas Hountondji, with 4 goals in 11 games. However, Joel Chima Fujita has provided 3 assists in St. Pauli’s last five matches, so they shouldn't be written off completely. St. Pauli has some momentum, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five games. They beat Heidenheim 2-1 at home and drew 1-1 at FC Koln. Coach Alexander Blessin will have them ready to press high in the first half, which could give Mainz opportunities to break them down.

St Pauli: Team News

St. Pauli are on the verge of signing Avispa Fukuoka defender Tomoya Ando

FC St. Pauli Injury Report

David Nemeth (Groin) - Out

Marwin Schmitz (Ankle) - Out

Andreas Hountondji (Hamstring) - Out

Ricky Jade-Jones (Hamstring) - Out

Eric Smith (Suspended) - Out

St Pauli Expected Lineup

Vasilj (GK), Wahl (DF), Dzwigala (DF), Mets (DF), Pyrka (MF), Sands (MF), Irvine (MF), Oppie (MF), Fujita (AT), Lage (AT), Kaars (AT)

Mainz vs St Pauli Head-to-Head statistics

Mainz has won 6 of the last 12 matches against St. Pauli. They’ve had the upper hand in recent encounters, winning the last four. The most recent match, on February 22, 2025, ended in a 2-0 victory for Mainz. Their previous meeting, on October 5, 2024, also saw Mainz win 3-0. This history suggests Mainz could have the advantage going into the upcoming match.

Mainz vs St Pauli: Betting Tips & Odds

• Mainz 05 has not won any of their seven Bundesliga home games this season, with two draws and five losses. St. Pauli has a similar away record, with one win, one draw, and five losses. However, St. Pauli’s away form has improved recently, picking up one win and one draw in their last three away games.
• Mainz 05 has been struggling, with only two draws and three losses in their last five matches. This poor form could hurt their confidence and momentum ahead of the match against St. Pauli. Their inability to beat strong teams like Bayern München and Borussia Mönchengladbach suggests they may struggle in this game.
• St. Pauli, on the other hand, has shown some improvement, with one win and one draw in their last five matches. This could give them a confidence boost going into the game. However, their losses to teams like Bayern München and SC Freiburg show they might face challenges against a strong Mainz side.

Mainz vs St Pauli match prediction, 21th December 2025

St. Pauli is close to signing Avispa Fukuoka defender Tomoya Ando. Both teams are fighting for important points, making the match expected to be tightly contested. For betting tips, bookmakers slightly favor Mainz (1.93), with St. Pauli priced at 4.0. Mainz are favorites, but they have a poor home record in the Bundesliga. Given their struggles, the draw in the double chance market seems like a good option. Mainz fans should be content with that outcome, especially as they have only 7 points from 14 games. St. Pauli is just slightly better, with 11 points in 16th place. The prediction is that Mainz will win 2-0 in this game.

Our match prediction is Mainz to win with odds at 2.02 on the 1Xbetbookmaker.

Our betting tip is BTTS (no) with odds at 1.84 on the BC.game bookmaker.

Our last match prediction is Under 2.5 total goal with odds at 1.78 on Betway bookmaker.