Stadium: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)
01.03.2025 17:30
The magic of the cup comes alive as St Pauli faces Borussia Dortmund in a David vs Goliath showdown. St Pauli has built their success on defensive discipline, but they will need every ounce of resilience to repel Dortmund’s attacking might. The hosts will look to frustrate their illustrious opponents while capitalizing on set-pieces and counter-attacks.
Dortmund’s attacking riches have seen them average 1.6 goals per away game. However, defensive vulnerability has been their Achilles' heel, often allowing opponents back into games. This encounter pits St Pauli’s dogged determination against Dortmund’s attacking flair in what could be a captivating battle.
The likelihood of both teams scoring is high, and the clash of playing styles could result in over 4 cards. Corners are also expected to feature prominently, given Dortmund’s wide attacking play and St Pauli’s set-piece reliance.
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St Pauli’s conservative approach sees them average 0.9 goals per home game. Their defensive discipline is their strongest asset, making them difficult to break down. They adopt a low-block system, relying on counter-attacks and set-pieces to create scoring chances. However, occasional lapses in concentration, particularly when under sustained pressure, have cost them valuable points. Their aggressive pressing in midfield often leads to multiple bookings per game. With their combative style and the importance of the cup tie, the likelihood of over 4 cards is high. Despite their low-scoring nature, St Pauli’s tactical discipline keeps them competitive in tight contests.
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund’s attack averages 1.6 goals per away game, but defensive vulnerabilities persist. Their possession-based approach sees them dominate the ball, often creating numerous scoring opportunities. Wide play and quick interchanges result in a high volume of corners, particularly against compact defenses. However, their aggressive pressing style leaves gaps at the back, making them prone to counter-attacks. This intensity also leads to several fouls, contributing to frequent bookings. The combination of attacking quality and defensive lapses makes BTTS highly probable. Dortmund’s technical ability should give them the upper hand, but their defensive frailties leave the door open for their opponents.
History of Head-to-Heads
Bundesliga 2025/2026 
Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga 2024/2025
Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga 2024/2025
St. Pauli
DFB Pokal 2021/2022
Borussia Dortmund
Club Friendlies 2016
St. Pauli
St. Pauli Latest Games
St. Pauli 
St. Pauli
FC Heidenheim
St. Pauli
St. Pauli
St. Pauli
Union Berlin
St. Pauli
Borussia Moenchengladbach
Hoffenheim
St. Pauli
Borussia Dortmund Latest Games
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Moenchengladbach
Borussia Dortmund
Bodo-Glimt
Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia Dortmund
Villarreal
Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Expert Betting Tips
Dortmund’s superior attacking quality gives them a 60% probability of victory. A 2-1 away win is predicted, with BTTS likely. Over 2.5 goals is highly probable, while the physical nature of both teams increases the likelihood of over 4 cards. Dortmund’s wide play should generate more than 9.5 corners, making this a potentially action-packed encounter. However, St Pauli’s resolute defending could keep the margin tight, making for a tense finish.
Below are my predictions for the game:
My first prediction is W2 to win for odds of 1.94 at Betway
My second prediction is over 2.5 odds for odds of 1.83 at Bet365
My final prediction is over 9.5 corners for odds of 1.89 at 1XBet
Other predictions
