St Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction: St Pauli waiting to cause an upset at the Millerntor

St Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Odds on 23 August 2025

The Millerntor stadium will be the centre stage for an intriguing game when St. Pauli hosts Borussia Dortmund in what promises to be one of the standout games of the Bundesliga’s open day games. St. Pauli’s promotion to the Bundesliga has injected fresh energy into German football, and the club’s passionate and emotional fanbase will treat this as a special occasion. 

Dortmund had a great unbeaten preseason, and although the disappointing 2025/2025 season will be fresh in their mind. This can push Dortmund to start very strong and assess their situation in January. But St. Pauli’s high pressing and fearless style, which carried them through the 2. Bundesliga could cause nervous moments for Dortmund’s backline. Add in the raucous Millerntor atmosphere, and this clash is set up as both a celebration and a stern test for the Dortmund.

St Pauli: Forms and Statistics

St. Pauli has experienced mixed results in preseason, recording 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. They have netted 7 goals across those games, but conceded 8 to give an indication of both their attacking energy and defensive lapses. St Pauli's team that clinched the promotion was built on team intensity and effort rather than individual brilliance, and that mentality is likely to continue. Against a talented Dortmund side that is lethal in transitions, St. Pauli must maintain shape and discipline while hoping their passionate support inspires another shock result.

St Pauli - Lineups

🔖 St Pauli Predicted Lineup (3-4-3)

Vaslj; Wahl, Smith, Dzwigala; Pyrka, Sands, Fujita, Oppie; Afolayan, Hountondji, Lage

⛔️ Unavailable: Afeez Aremu, David Nemeth

👤 Head Coach: Alexander Blessin

Borussia Dortmund: Forms and Statistics

Dortmund played 5 preseason games without tasting defeat, with 4 wins and a draw, scoring 13 goals and conceding only 3. Their attack looks sharp and is firing from all angles. Last season’s disappointment has clearly sharpened Dortmund's resolve as the team presses more cohesively and finishes chances more clinically. 

While the away form in 2024/25 was patchy at times, Dortmund will look well-drilled coming into this game.

Borussia Dortmund - Lineups

🔖 St Pauli Predicted Lineup (3-5-2)

Kobel; Mane, Anton, Bensebaini; Ryerson, Gross, Sabitzer, Bellingham, Svensson; Guirassy, Adeyemi

⛔️ Unavailable: Sébastien Haller, Youssoufa Moukoko

👤 Head Coach: Niko Kovač

St Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund: head to head statistics

A review of the historical data suggests that this has been a one-sided fixture. Dortmund have dominated past encounters, winning the last five meetings across all competitions. When the two sides last met in the DFB-Pokal in 2022, St. Pauli shocked Dortmund with a 2-1 win, and this suggests that the home team cannot be underestimated.

St Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund: Betting Tips & Odds

• In the last 10 games between St Pauli and Borussia Dortmund, bet on over 1.5 goals has played. The bet is offered on the Betway bookmaker website for odds of 1.26 odds;
• In 4 of the last 5 games between St Pauli and Borussia Dortmund, bet on BTTS has played. The bet is offered on the Betway bookmaker website for odds of 1.78 odds;
• In 4 of the last 5 games between St Pauli and Borussia Dortmund, Borussia Dortmund has won. The bet is offered on the Betway bookmaker website for odds of 1.76 odds;

St Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund match prediction 23 August 2025

We expect that Dortmund’s quality should ultimately prove decisive against a St. Pauli side that plays with intensity. St Pauli will also be motivated by the home crowd, who can provide the atmosphere that could make this a spirited contest. However, we expect Dortmund to take all three points by dominating possession and creating chances. A scoreline of 1-3 or 1-2 is likely. 

Below are our predictions

Our match prediction: is over 2.5 goals for a coefficient of 1.80 in the Betway bookmaker.

Our betting tip on the match: is W2 to win for a coefficient of 1.79 in the Bet365 bookmaker.

Lastly: is BTTS for a coefficient of 1.78 in the 1XBet bookmaker.