Werder Bremen vs St Pauli Prediction: Bremen’s defensive lapses meets St. Pauli’s gritty challenge

Werder Bremen vs St Pauli: Prediction for the Match on October 04, 2025

Werder’s early season has been rocky. They have conceded heavily in many matches, struggling to keep clean sheets, and failing to win at home so far, despite showing attacking flashes. Werder Bremen has been under pressure to shore up their backline and find consistency. St. Pauli have shown more attacking promise this term than in similar stages last season as they have scored more, created more chances but defensive fragility and a weaker squad depth may limit them. 

Tactically, Bremen are likely to press high, look to overload wide areas, and capitalize on transition moments. St. Pauli will likely sit compact, try to frustrate, and aim for counter-attacks or set-pieces. The outcome may depend more on Bremen’s defensive response and whether St. Pauli can convert the opportunities they force.

Werder Bremen: Forms and Statistics

Werder have had a mixed start. They have shown resilience in some matches, but their defence has been tested badly, conceding often and not keeping many clean sheets. Scoring has also been inconsistent; when they do get chances, finishing is uneven. 

Werder’s form at home is underwhelming this season as the team is without a win so far in home league games, has a high goals-against tally, and defensive mistakes have been costly. Offensively, they have shown bursts of quality (goals, pressure), but lack consistency. They face many shots conceded and their defensive organization is under question.

St Pauli: Forms and Statistics

St Pauli don’t dominate possession often, but are difficult to break down, especially in the midfield and wide areas. Their matches tend to be tighter, with fewer gaps, more defensive organisation, though sometimes costly mistakes leave them vulnerable to high-quality attacks.

St. Pauli away are more resilient than expected, as the team tends to score in most games, creates chances, and manages to keep matches close. But they have also conceded in every away fixture, and defensive lapses often cost them, especially when Bremen apply early pressure. Their scoring is improving compared to last season, but finishing under pressure is still a concern.

Werder Bremen - Lineups

🔖 Werder Bremen Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Hein; Sugawara, Friedl, Coulibaly, Agu; Lynen, Stage; Puertas, Schmid, Njinmah; Grüll

⛔️ Unavailable: Maximilian Wöber (out), Olivier Deman (out), Mitchell Weiser (out), Julián Malatini (out), Niklas Stark (out), Mio Backhaus (out), Salim Musah (doubtful), Marco Friedl (doubtful), Samuel Mbangula (doubtful)

👤 Head coach: Horst Steffen

St. Pauli - Lineups

🔖 St. Pauli Predicted Lineup (3-4-1-2)

Vasilj, Wahl, Smith, Dźwigała; Saliakas, Sands, Fujita, Oppie; Sinani; Hountondji.,Lage

⛔️ Unavailable: Ricky-Jade Jones (out), David Nemeth (out), Jackson Irvine (doubtful), Danel Sinani (doubtful), Hauke Wahl (doubtful)

👤 Head coach: Alexander Blessin

Werder Bremen vs St Pauli match prediction 04 October 2025

• In 4 of the last 5 games between Werder Bremen and St Pauli, bet on under 2.5 goals has played. The bet is offered on the Betway bookmaker website for odds of 2.25 odds;
• In 8 of the last 10 games between Werder Bremen and St Pauli, bet on under 4.5 cards has played. The bet is offered on the Betway bookmaker website for odds of 1.22 odds;

Werder Bremen vs St Pauli match prediction 04 October 2025

Bremen have conceded at least 3 goals in four of their five Bundesliga fixtures this season. St. Pauli have scored in four of their five league games so far, but have also conceded in every away outing. The Head-to-head record heavily favours Bremen. Out of 38 meetings, Bremen have won 22, St. Pauli only about 6, with many draws. Several recent Bremen vs St. Pauli matches at Bremen have ended in draws.

According to the statistics, the game looks like it will be better contested than many expect. Bremen are favourites given their head-to-head and home status, but their defensive frailties mean they’re vulnerable. St. Pauli have enough threat to score, especially on counter-attacks or from set-pieces. We anticipate goals from both sides, possibly a tight win for Bremen if they shore up their defence. A 2-1 win for Werder will not be that surprising. 

Below are our predictions

Our match prediction: is BTTS for a coefficient of 1.62 in the Betway bookmaker.

Our betting tip on the match: is under 3.5 goals for a coefficient of 1.60 in the Bet365 bookmaker.

Lastly: is W1 to win for a coefficient of 2.41 in the 1XBet bookmaker.