Manchester City vs Real Madrid: Madrid won't allow the Citizens to create a comfortable lead

Man City have never beaten Real Madrid by two goals or more in the UEFA Champions League. Will Josep Guardiola's men be able to maintain a comfortable lead now? We predict that Madrid will fight the favorite!

This is our best prediction today, with the best odds from a 60%-win rate tipster.

Manchester City

Manchester City have had another strong season and continue to fight for the two major trophies. In the EPL, the Citizens are leading the standings, while they have already reached the semi-finals in the Champions League. They were recently knocked out of the FA Cup, losing 2-3 to Liverpool, but there's little point in them shedding too much grief over that. They've finally stopped misfiring in the league, winning their last two games against Brighton and Watford 3-0 and 5-1, respectively. At the same time, Josep Guardiola's side is also performing well in the continental club competition, where they have already qualified for the playoffs with Sporting and Atlético de Madrid.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid can already clinch the Spanish La Liga title with a 15-point lead over their archrivals after five games to go. This allows Los Blancos to concentrate on their Champions League performance, where they have not won for a long time by their standards, since 2018. Carlo Ancelotti's side has been on the verge of relegation on several occasions during the playoffs in the current competition, but each time they have been rescued. In the encounter with PSG, they came back from 0-2 down, but Karim Benzema scored a hat-trick in the second half to seal a 3-2 win, and in the quarter-final, the Spaniards nearly lost the game against Chelsea. Still, Rodrigo and Benzema's goals helped them rectify the situation.

History of head-to-head encounters

In the Champions League, the teams have played six head-to-head encounters with absolute equality. Each team has two victories, two more games ended in a draw, and the scoreline is 7-7. The last time the opponents met in the last 16 of the tournament in 2020, Man City won by the same score of 2-1.

Expert Betting Tips

Manchester City are favorites to win the first leg of the semi-final but do not prematurely bury Real Madrid. If you look at all the statistics of their Champions League rivalry, the Citizens have never beaten the club from Madrid by two goals or more in six fixtures. Now, there is a good chance that the Spaniards will be able to put up a credible challenge against the English. Yes, Josep Guardiola's charges will have the game initiative, but they are well aware of how dangerous the counterattacks by Los Blancos are, so we will not see total domination. With this in mind, a Real Madrid victory with a handicap (+1) for 2.14 seems to be the best option for our prediction.

For the second consecutive round of the Champions League playoffs, Real Madrid have to start in England. Carlo Ancelotti's charges played in the quarter-finals in London, where they beat Chelsea 3-1, before losing just as cheerfully to the Blues in Spain, 1-3. It is unlikely that the more open and attacking Man City encounter will be any less goal-rich. Yes, the Citizens suffered a 1-0 and 0-0 defeat to the other Madrid side in the last round, but Atlético tried to dry everything they could while the Lions will not do that even away. They will still find their chances in attack. As a result, a bet on Total Over 2.5 goals for 1.66 is inevitable.

Regarding the likely authors of the prolific exploits in the upcoming game, special attention should be paid to Karim Benzema. In the Champions League playoffs, he has been phenomenal in terms of goalscoring in his last three games, with seven goals in that span, including eight for Los Blancos, accounting for 88% of the team's total goalscoring output. He also plays very productively in the Spanish championship, having already scored 25 goals in 29 games, which allows him ahead of the nearest pursuer in the sniper race for ten goals. In such a situation, a bet on Karim Benzema's goal is worth considering at odds of around 3.34.

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