Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot Prediction: Can Mateusz Gamrot win on the opponent's turf?

Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot: Prediction and odds on the Match on 12 October, 2025

This weekend, UFC is back with an event in Brazil that will be seen by people all over the world. Charles Oliveira and Mateusz Gamrot will fight in a high-stakes lightweight fight as the main event. This is the first of three international events in a row. Fans can look forward to an exciting night with 12 fights and top talent on display. Who will win? We're giving you a sneak peek at the matchup and a chance to bet for free at Telecom Asia.

Charles Oliveira: Form and Statistics

Oliveira lost by knockout to Ilia Topuria at UFC 317 just a few months ago. This was his fifth loss by KO or TKO. Even so, he has the most submissions (16) and finishes (20) in UFC history. Only five of his 35 UFC fights have gone to a decision. Oliveira is 5'10" tall, weighs 155 pounds, and has a reach of 74 inches. He has a record of 35 wins, 11 losses, and 0 draws. He is one of the most unpredictable finishers in UFC history because of his aggressive style and dangerous submission game. He lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute at a rate of 55%, which is pretty good for a lightweight. He does, however, take 3.26 strikes per minute and has a 48% defense, which means he is open to attacks. This has been a problem for him, especially when he fights strong punchers. In the past, Oliveira has also been knocked down by top fighters like Islam Makhachev, Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler, and David Teymur. He has five career knockout losses, which is why people call him a "glass cannon."

Charles Oliveira: Strength

Charles Oliveira used to be the UFC lightweight champion and has a lot of experience. He is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and has won regional MMA titles. Oliveira has 10 wins by KO and 21 wins by submission, with 16 of those finishes coming in the first round. He is a dangerous opponent because he is fast and puts a lot of pressure on his opponents. His boxing has gotten better over time, especially his hooks and uppercuts, which are very accurate. He also has a good muay Thai game, with strong knees, elbows, and leg kicks. People don't give Oliveira's wrestling enough credit; he has strong takedowns from the clinch. He is an excellent transitional grappler with a lot of different submission skills.

Mateusz Gamrot: Form and Statistics

Neither fighter is particularly durable. Gamrot has been knocked down four times in 11 UFC bouts, but he has shown great recovery and has never been finished professionally. Gamrot, whether fighting in southpaw or orthodox, relies heavily on his jab. He uses it to set up a variety of strikes, including precise crosses and powerful calf kicks. His best work comes from building off his straight punches, often using his southpaw crosses to set up low-single attacks. He’s also skilled in hand fighting, but against someone like Oliveira, he’ll need to be careful. Mateusz "Gamer" Gamrot stands at 5'10" and weighs 155 lbs, the same as Oliveira, but with a shorter 70-inch reach. His professional record is 25-3-0 (1 NC), reflecting his steady rise in the lightweight division. Gamrot’s fighting style is based on pressure, control, and relentless grappling. He averages 5.33 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 36% success rate. His 90% takedown defense makes him tough to take down. Once in control, he’s patient and heavy from the top. In striking exchanges, Gamrot lands 3.35 significant strikes per minute with 51% accuracy. He absorbs slightly fewer strikes than Oliveira (3.04 per minute) and defends better with 59%.

Mateusz Gamrot: Strength

Mateusz Gamrot is the KSW lightweight and featherweight champion. He has also won a lot of grappling awards, such as the Polish and European ADCC titles. He has 8 knockouts and 5 submissions, and 3 of those finishes happened in the first round. Gamrot fights with a lot of speed and pressure, and he usually gets stronger as the fight goes on. He can jab from either stance and hit crosses accurately when the chance comes up. He hits well when there are breaks in the action. Gamrot is also good at takedowns, preferring low singles and chaining them together well. He is a great scrambler and submission artist because he is a transitional grappler. But he only has three weeks to prepare for the fight.

Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot Betting Insights, Tips & Odds

• Charles Oliveira is the bigger fighter, with a 4-inch reach advantage over Mateusz Gamrot. He also has a wider range of striking techniques, more power, and is a more efficient striker at distance.
• Oliveira's strike differential is better (-0.1 vs. -0.4 per minute) and he’s faced a tougher strength of schedule than Gamrot.
• Oliveira’s grappling is his real strength. He averages 2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes with 39% accuracy and attempts 2.6 submissions per 15 minutes. Once the fight hits the mat, Oliveira is dangerous.
• He holds the UFC record for most submission finishes, and his transitions are quick and smooth. However, his 56% takedown defense could be a weakness against a wrestler like Gamrot.

Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot Expert Betting Tips

The main event at UFC Rio is a fight between two top lightweights who are both used to dealing with pressure. Gamrot is a fighter who likes to switch stances and move around a lot, which gives him a lot of different looks. This is one of the most interesting stylistic matchups of the year. Oliveira brings chaos, power, and the threat of submission, all of which are worse when he fights at home. Gamrot, on the other hand, has a lot of structure, is patient, and is a great wrestler. Bettors should remember that Oliveira has dangerous submissions and can end the fight, while Gamrot has a grind and decision-focused style. Gamrot will probably win in striking exchanges, but he might go too far with the clinching and grappling against Oliveira. Oliveira is dangerous from all sides and can get submissions from the back. I think Gamrot's aggressive style will be his undoing in this fight. This fight is a real test of speed, cardio, and small margins in the lightweight division, no matter who wins. As the week goes on, keep an eye out for weigh-ins and updates from the camp. The live odds could change. I think Gamrot will win by decision.

Our first prediction is W2 double chance - 1.909 odds for 1xbet

Our second prediction is Over 2.5 rounds - 1.78 odds for bet365

Our third prediction is W2 to win - 1.86 odds for Betway