Fedor Emelianenko (Russia) vs Timothy Johnson (USA)
VTB Arena (Moscow)
On October 23, there will be the first Bellator tournament to take place in Russia. In the main battle of the evening, Fedor Emelianenko will meet American Tim Johnson.
Fedor Emelianenko: his state is worrying
The legendary Last Emperor will fight in Moscow for the first time in a long while, and, in fact, the whole tournament card is built around him. Fedor has two more fights under contract with Bellator, including this one, but a fight with Johnson can still be the last fight of his career (there is such a clause in his contract).
Emelianenko’s state is really worrying right now. Fedor has given up quite a bit, and he hasn't been in the cage in two years. During that time he's hardly gotten any younger or faster. It's worth remembering that his last fights were a little bit like Russian roulette, it’s either he'd knock the opponent out quickly, or they'd knock him out just as quickly. In short, whoever gets there first takes the fight. No clever tactics in Fedor Emelianenko's recent fights can be observed.
«There’s hardly half or even a third of the strength I had at 25 or 30 years old left. Plus the recovery, of course, is no longer the same, the age plays its part. But, thank God, I'm still in shape, it's interesting, I like it. Can I beat Moldavsky now? No. I don't want to get beaten up myself. I'm not the Fedor I used to be. I don't like it very much. I'm already at the age when I can't do anything but tell stories.»
Timothy Johnson: seems to be at his best
Timothy Johnson is not a big name, but a relatively tough fighter, who in his previous fight (in June this year) fought for the Bellator title (not the last league in the world) and lost only by decision to Valentin Moldavsky, giving him a lot of trouble.
Before that, Johnson had knocked out Matt Mitrione and Tyrell Fortune (good, top fighters) in the first round and defeated Cheick Kongo, an elite fighter, by split decision.
«Right after the fight with Valentin Moldavsky, I called my agent and told him to add Fedor to my list of opponents. Time passed and I even started considering other options, but my agent called me and told me that he had chosen me. I felt like I had won the lottery. I think the first round will be exploring, and in the second I'll knock Fedor out.»
| Criteria | Emelianenko | Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 45 | 36 |
| Weight (kg) | 101 | 120 |
| Height (cm) | 183 | 191 |
| Wins | 39 | 15 |
| Losses | 6 | 7 |
| Wins by knockout | 14 | 7 |
| Losses by knockout | 5 | 3 |
Expert Betting Tips
Bookmakers have considered Fedor as a favorite, but it didn’t seem reasonable. If the fight goes according to the usual for the "late" Emelianenko scenario, the chances for knockout (it can't be any other way in this case) are absolutely equal. But if the American thinks about it a bit, he'll realize that it's more advantageous for him to get the fight longer. If he manages to do that (and the odds are high), it will be really scary for Emelianenko in the later rounds.
All in all, there's no secret about it, and Russian UFC fighter Shamil Gamzatov simply summed up what almost all the experts say:
«If Fedor gets in, he'll knock out his opponent. I think that age can affect Emelianenko a lot, he has a very tough opponent. In general, I think that Fedor will count on one punch, trying to knock Timothy out. If Emelianenko doesn't knock out Johnson at the beginning of the fight, if there's not enough power for that, then it's going to be tough from here on out.»
Timothy Johnson, at least now, is not inferior to Fedor in anything and wins in body measurements. Still, Fedor at his best would have passed such a fighter without breaking a sweat.
The odds on Emelianenko's win are 1.935, and on Timothy Johnson's win — at 1.872.
Other predictions
