Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano Prediction: Champ Has No Other Choice But to Choke the Opponent

The fight will be in the lightweight category.Islam Makhachev is the current champion, and Renato Moicano is in tenth place in the rankings. The bookmakers think Makhachev is going to win. But then Arman Tsarukyan hurt his back just before the weigh-in. The league found a solution: Brazilian Renato Moicano, who was supposed to fight in the same event as Beneil Dariush, will replace him.

Islam Makhachev

Islam Makhachev is seen as the successor to Khabib Nurmagomedov, and he is performing well so far. If he wins this fight, he will become the fourth lightweight to hold a title in the division (Khabib had three). In amateur competitions, Islam was a world champion in combat sambo. In professional MMA, he has only suffered one defeat, completely by accident, back in 2015. Renato Moicano, who is ranked tenth, doesn't seem to be a very tough opponent compared to Arman Tsarukyan, and Makhachev has no one else to fight in the lightweight division. This is why he is looking at the higher divisions with more and more interest. If we talk about Makhachev's strengths, it's simple: he's good at every aspect, and he hasn't had to work at his limit yet, as the opponents haven't given him that opportunity lately. But experts have noticed some things he could improve in his striking technique. In the wrestling, the Russian's perfect - always one step ahead of his opponents, waiting for the right moment and taking advantage of any opportunity. Islam is extremely strong and has a wide range of techniques. He can change the course of the fight according to the situation and look for completely unexpected ways to continue attacking. After changing his opponent at UFC 311, Islam accepted the fight immediately. Although if he had refused, no one would have condemned him.

Renato Moicano

The 35-year-old Brazilian fighter was once a Jungle Fight champion. Renato has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and has been competing in the UFC for ten years. He has won twelve bouts and failed five. Moicano has fought some very tough guys, but we remember very well how he lost to Rafael Fiziev in the first round. Now, Renato is ranked tenth, he has won four previous bouts. In the most recent one, he sensationally defeated Benoit Saint-Denis, forcing the doctor to stop the fight.

Stats Betting

What's interesting is that both Islam and Renato have had their bouts stopped early quite often lately. Given the emotions associated with the change, it's likely their fight will be short. This is also shown by the official UFC statistics. On average, Islam Makhachev's fights last 10 minutes and 34 seconds, while Renato Moicano's last 11 minutes and 45 seconds. This is also will be a five-round bout. It's clear who the winner will be, as the undisputed champion meets the tenth number of the rating. Here are some interesting facts about takedowns for those who like advanced stats: Islam averages 3.19 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Renato - 1.87.

Expert Betting Tips

It's hard to see how Renato Moicano can be happy about the bout's course when he's weaker, fighting on his feet and on the floor. His only hope is the infamous lucky-punch. And that would only happen if Islam loses concentration, but this is also just wishful thinking. Khabib's team is not happy, either, even though they still remember Adriano Martins' lesson. We expect the Brazilian to provoke the opponent and drag him into the emotional turmoil. Everything must happen quickly, because Moicano has not prepared for five rounds. If he does not finish Islam in the first half of the fight (which is already improbable), then in the second half - there will be no even theoretical chance. Makhachev is on the brink of a historic event. Even though he won't be in a hurry and won't take any risks, we still don't see any other outcome than his early victory. 

Prediction:

W1 for 1.08

Fight Won't Go Into the Distance for 1.12

W1 by Submission Choke Disq for 2.00