Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto Prediction: Mario Pinto to be a serious knockout threat against Jhonata Diniz

Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto: Prediction and odds on the Match on 12 October, 2025

UFC Fight Night 261 goes down Sunday, October 12, 2025, at the Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Heavyweights Jhonata Diniz and Mario Pinto meet in a bout that could shake up the upper ranks of the division. Diniz comes in with a 9-1 record and a growing reputation as a composed, volume-based striker. Pinto, undefeated at 10-0, is looking to extend his perfect run with another statement finish. Who will win this encounter? Here at Telecom Asia, we take a look at the match’s preview and offer free betting opportunities.

Jhonata Diniz: Form and Statistics

Jhonata Diniz has a record of 9 wins and 1 loss and averages 4.58 significant strikes per minute. He only lost to Marcin Tybura, who is in the top 10 heavyweights in the UFC. Diniz is likely to throw more punches in this fight. Even though he's not as accurate as Pinto, he's still a dangerous striker. Diniz has a 3-1 record in the UFC since getting his contract on Dana White's Contender Series in 2023. After losing to Tybura for the first time, he came back strong and beat Alvin Hines easily. Diniz is 6 feet 4 inches tall and has a reach of 79.5 inches. He is the slight favorite to win against another hungry prospect. Diniz is a seasoned striker with a background in kickboxing. He has seven knockouts in nine wins. The 34-year-old Brazilian has only lost once, to Tybura by doctor's stoppage in the second round last November. He has also beaten Karl Williams, Austen Lane, and Alvin Hines.

Jhonata Diniz: Strength

Jhonata Diniz is a new kind of technical heavyweight. He is good at both striking and defending. His orthodox stance and methodical approach help him stay accurate while also being safe. What stands out is how he has used his athletic advantages without hurting his defense.

Mario Pinto: Form and Statistics

Mario Pinto (10-0) is putting his undefeated record on the line for the second time in the UFC. His big break came last October when he knocked out Lucas Camacho in the first round of the Contender Series. Pinto then knocked out Austen Lane in the second round with a powerful punch, earning him the Performance of the Night bonus. Pinto is huge for a heavyweight, standing 6'5" tall and having a reach of 79 inches. He is also very fast. Pinto has a 73% accuracy rate when he strikes, and six of his wins have come by knockout. His first UFC fight, in which he beat Lane, was a strong one, but a win on Saturday would be his biggest win yet. To win, Pinto will need to land clean strikes to counter Diniz's high volume. Pinto is 6'6" tall, and after his knockout wins, including his DWCS debut and the win over Lane, he's showing that he's a real threat in the heavyweight division. Don't forget that he's the underdog in this fight.

Mario Pinto: Strength

Mario Pinto is an exciting heavyweight prospect who has never lost a fight and has a great finishing ability. He doesn't have a lot of experience, but he has shown that he can hit hard and be very efficient. His orthodox stance hides an aggressive, finish-focused style that has worked very well.

Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto Betting Insights, Tips & Odds

• Diniz's stats show that he is good at what he does. He hits his targets 56% of the time, which is good for a heavyweight. He strikes four times a minute and has a 59% defensive rate, which means he does a good job of balancing offense and defense.
• His 78% takedown defense is impressive because it shows he can keep the fight at striking range, which is where he feels most at ease.
• Pinto's numbers are also very good. His 71% accuracy when striking is impressive, but he takes 5.29 strikes per minute, which suggests that he isn't very good at defending himself.
• His perfect takedown defense and high knockdown rate are two of his best skills. They show that he has real finishing power at heavyweight.

Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto Expert Betting Tips

This fight shows two different stages of heavyweight growth. Diniz has experience, control, and a steady flow of work. Pinto, on the other hand, is young, strong, and has a dangerous style from the start. For people who bet, this fight is all about risk. If you bet on Pinto, you want him to get knocked out early. If you bet on Diniz, you want him to use his experience to survive and work harder than his opponent. Diniz is the slight favorite, but we think this fight will end before the end of the round. Pinto finished both of his first two UFC fights, and three of Diniz's five UFC fights have also ended this way, including his last one. Betting on the fight to end inside the distance seems like the safest bet because both fighters have been finishing fights a lot lately.

Our first prediction is W1 double chance - 1.75 odds for 1xbet

Our second prediction is W1 to win by TKO, KO, or DQ - 2.75 odds for bet365

Our third prediction is W1 to win - 1.80 odds for Betway