Justin Tafa vs Louie Sutherland Prediction: Will Louie Sutherland make a solid statement in his UFC debut?

Justin Tafa vs Louie Sutherland: Prediction and odds on the Match on 28 September, 2025

Louie Sutherland is headed to the UFC. The 10-3 heavyweight is currently riding a four fight win streak and will be debuting against Justin Tafa at UFC Perth on Sunday. Who will win this encounter? Here at Telecom Asia, we take a look at the match’s preview and offer free betting opportunities.

Justin Tafa's recent form

Justin Tafa steps into the cage for the 11th time under the UFC banner, a veteran who has spent most of his career inside the Octagon. At 31, the “Bad Man” carries both pressure and pride into this fight, competing in front of a hometown crowd. He comes into this matchup desperate for redemption. His last two outings were brutal: a decision loss to Karl Williams in March 2025 and a first-round TKO defeat to Tallison Teixeira at UFC 312. A third straight setback could be devastating for his standing in the division. What makes Tafa intriguing is how often his fights stay upright. Aside from Williams, no one has taken him down inside the UFC, and he’s never gone for a takedown himself. That leaves him in striking battles where chaos rules, and the winner is usually the one who lands first—or lasts longer. This fight feels like a clash of survival and statement. For Tafa, it’s not just about winning. It’s about proving that his power can still carry him through the storm.

Justin Tafa`s Strength

Tafa’s style is no secret. He’s built his reputation on raw knockout power, the kind that can end a fight with one punch. His leg kicks, when used early, add another dangerous layer. But his record shows a pattern—when he doesn’t land the big shot, trouble usually follows.

Louie Sutherland's recent form

Louie Sutherland (10-3) enters the UFC riding a four-fight win streak and carrying underdog status in his debut. The 31-year-old Scot is a patient striker with knockout power, earning eight finishes by KO. His last came in the Levels Fight League, where he claimed the heavyweight title with a crushing stoppage. But this is his toughest test yet. His regional dominance came from imposing size and power early, and that may not be enough here. Justin Tafa has already proven he can eat shots from UFC heavyweights and keep pressing forward. That experience, paired with knockout power of his own, makes Tafa the safer pick in this matchup.For Sutherland, the path is narrow but clear. If he can keep Tafa at range with kicks and a sharp jab, he has a chance to drag this fight deep. If not, his debut could end with a heavy counter.

Louie Sutherland`s Strength

Nicknamed “The Vanilla Gorilla,” Sutherland brings more than power. A former rugby prospect, he’s shown strong cardio and a chin that has never failed him. Across 13 pro fights in PFL, Bellator, and regional circuits, he has never been finished. His style blends long jabs and rangy kicks that set up quick, heavy combinations once he commits.

Justin Tafa vs Louie Sutherland Betting Insights, Tips & Odds

• Tafa fights with raw power. He throws 4.09 significant strikes per minute and lands more than half of them. Five of his UFC wins ended in knockouts, including a first-round finish of Parker Porter in 2023. One clean shot is all it takes.
• On the mat, though, he rarely goes there. His 0.2 takedowns per 15 minutes tell the story, with no submission attempts on record. A 60% takedown defense has held up so far, but it has not been tested against elite wrestlers.
• His gas tank is another question mark. Most of his fights end early, and when forced into deeper waters, like against Karl Williams, he faded. Defensively, he absorbs 5.02 significant strikes per minute, which leaves him open against busy strikers.
• For Tafa, this fight is about redemption. In front of his home crowd, he’ll look to land early, avoid grappling, and remind everyone of his knockout power.
• Sutherland brings volume and variety. He throws 5.45 strikes per minute with 50% accuracy and owns four knockouts. His style blends long jabs, sharp kicks, and quick counters.
• Unlike Tafa, he mixes in wrestling. He averages 1.5 takedowns every 15 minutes, with 40% accuracy, and has shown he can threaten with submissions. His lone submission win came in Cage Warriors, and his wrestling could expose Tafa’s weaker ground game.
• Cardio is a strength. He went five hard rounds in a Cage Warriors title fight in 2024, showing he can push a pace that Tafa struggles to match.
• But there are questions. He has no UFC experience, and a TKO loss in 2023 raised doubts about his chin against big hitters. His 55% takedown defense also looks shaky against skilled wrestlers.
• For Sutherland, this debut is about ambition. If he survives the early storm, he can use his wrestling and cardio to flip the script—or catch Tafa with a counter on tired legs.

Justin Tafa vs Louie Sutherland Expert Betting Tip

Louie Sutherland pushed his record to 10-3 last night, claiming the LFL Heavyweight Title with a first-round finish over Luke Newland. Now he steps into the Octagon for a showdown that promises chaos. Sutherland vs. Tafa is less about judges’ scorecards and more about who hits the canvas first. Together, they own 12 first-round finishes, and neither man has ever looked interested in dragging fights into deep waters. Tafa brings his trademark brawling style—always marching forward, throwing bombs, and trusting his chin. Across from him, Sutherland fires with crisp boxing and explosive counters, thriving in wild exchanges. Heavyweight fights are already built for knockouts. With two men who take damage while hunting for kill shots, this one feels destined to end violently. Whether it’s Tafa’s left hand crashing home or Sutherland clipping him in a scramble, don’t expect 15 minutes. Expect someone out cold.

Our First prediction is +3.5 Spread Louie Sutherland at 1.66 odds on 1xbet

Our Second Prediction is a W2 to win with odds at 2.00 odds on bet365

Our third prediction is Over 1.5 rounds at 1.68 odds on Betway