Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico Prediction: Will Aaron Pico be able to make an impression on his UFC debut?

Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico Prediction and Odds on the Match on August 17, 2025

Scheduled as the Co-Main Event (fight 11 of 12) under the 145 lbs (65.8 kg) weight class, this match is expected to be highly exciting. It will take place at the United Center, Chicago, Illinois, United States. Lerone Murphy is coming into this match from a five-match winning streak, while Aaron Pico has won four times in the last five matches. Who will win this encounter? Here at Telecom Asia, we take a look at the match’s preview and offer free betting opportunities.

Lerone Murphy's recent form

Lerone Murphy joined the UFC in 2019 and has had three wins and one draw. He has had an impressive run, with five wins in the last five bouts. The wins were against Gabriel Santos, Makwan Amirkhani, Josh Culibao, Edson Barboza, and Douglas Silva de Andrade. The draw was against Zubaira Tukhugov in his debut. Despite that, Murphy won the Performance of the Night award against Ricardo Ramos. The wins were by knockout in the first round. In terms of title wins, Murphy won the Full Contact Contender Featherweight Championship against Ant Phillips via TKO. Prior to that, against Manolo Scianna, Murphy won the Full Contact Contender Featherweight Championship. Lerone Murphy boasts a professional MMA record of 16 wins and a draw. He enters UFC 319 as an undefeated featherweight ranked number six in the world. He’s earned notable wins over Edson Barboza and Josh Emmett, showing adaptability and composure against elite competition. Taking this fight on just three weeks’ notice after Movsar Evloev’s withdrawal, Murphy sees it as a prime chance to strengthen his title case and prove he can handle dangerous opponents on short notice. Two fights (and two years) later he was taken down 5 times in R1 by Makwan Amirkhani and had quite the time trying to create any kind of space (conceded 4+ minutes of control time in R1 but as able to KO Makwan at the very beginning of R2 with a knee before he could get taken down again). One fight later (year and a half later), he was once again taken down 5 times by a debuting, week’s notice replacement fighter in Gabriel Santos who again, arguably beat Lerone (17/19 media members scored it for Santos and I thought Santos won as well).

Lerone Murphy`s Strength

Lerone Murphy is known for his sharp, precise striking, strong takedown defense, and calm, calculated approach. He is super talented; he’s good offensively on the mat, but he lacks defensive wrestling

Aaron Pico's recent form

Aaron Pico, boasts a professional record of 13 wins and 4 losses, making his highly anticipated UFC debut with an elite wrestling background and explosive knockout power, having scored 9 KO/TKOs and 2 submissions in his career. While new to the UFC stage, his performances in Bellator showcased championship-level potential, and he views a win over a ranked, undefeated opponent like Murphy as the perfect way to announce himself as a major featherweight contender.

Aaron Pico`s Strength

Aaron Pico is known for his aggressive forward pressure and ability to finish fights early. He blends heavy hands with relentless grappling to overwhelm opponents.

Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico Betting Insights, Tips & Odds

• In Lerone’s UFC debut, Zuba Tukhugov was able to take him down on 6/8 attempts and control him for nearly 10 minutes, in a fight that I, and 12/13 media members on MMADecisions thought Zuba won (control time on UFCStats is wrong). His next 3 fights were against primary strikers in Culibao, Barboza, and Ige, where he conceded 1/5 takedown attempts and was actually able to show off some of his offensive wrestling. Then in his most recent fight he conceded 4/11 takedowns to Josh Emmett, but he didn’t allow much control time, which is a plus. The bookies have Lerone Murphy to win by decision or technical decision at 3.40 odds in the 1xbet bookmaker.
• Aaron Pico was a super prospect, a Golden Gloves boxer, and the best wrestler in the nation at age 18. The bookies have Aaron Pico to win by decision or technical decision at 2.40 odds in the 1xbet bookmaker.

Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico Expert Betting Tip

Lerone Murphy offers value given his proven durability, measured fight style, and ability to neutralize dangerous opponents over three rounds. Murphy has never finished in his professional career and thrives in extended bouts, using sharp, precise striking and strong takedown defense to dictate range and pace. Against a debuting Aaron Pico, who is explosive early but untested at the UFC level, Murphy’s calm, calculated approach and adaptability against elite competition like Edson Barboza and Josh Emmett position him well to weather Pico’s early aggression. Murphy should've lost to both Tukhugov and Santos imo. Pico's control isn't phenomenal at all, but he does a lot of damage there, can mat return when Lerone stands, and does have some subs. Even if Pico starts strong, Murphy’s defensive awareness and composure on short notice should allow him to survive the opening storm, make adjustments, and potentially outpoint Pico as the fight progresses. Since this bet refunds in the event of a finish, backing Murphy on a decision-only line mitigates the risk of Pico’s early power while capitalizing on Murphy’s track record of winning on the scorecards.

Our First prediction is +3.5 Spread Lerone Murphy at 1.66 odds on 1xbet

Our Second Prediction is a Fight to go the distance (yes) with odds at 1.60 odds on bet365

Our third prediction is Aaron Pico to win at 1.60 odds on Betway