Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista Prediction: Can the rising star, Umar Nurmagomedov, handle the pressure?

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista: Prediction and odds on the Match on 25 October, 2025

UFC Fight Night on ESPN+ will be an exciting match for MMA fans. Umar Nurmagomedov will fight Mario Bautista in the Main Card (fight 11 of 13). All action will be held at Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Both fighters have won at least four of their last five fights. Who will win? Let's look at the preview and give some free betting tips.

Umar Nurmagomedov's recent form

Umar Nurmagomedov has won 18 fights and lost 1. He began his career in 2018 with the PFL promotion, where he won two fights. After that, he fought in the UFC and won all six of them. His last fight was on August 3, 2024, against Cory Sandhagen. Everyone agreed that Umar won. Before that, he won a unanimous decision over Bekzat Almakhan at a UFC Fight Night event. He won the UFC Fight Night Performance of the Night award in early 2023 after beating Raoni Barcelos. He also won the same award for beating Sergey Morozov by submission. Umar has also beaten Brian Kelleher (rear-naked choke), Nate Maness (unanimous decision), Sidemar Honorio (unanimous decision), Taras Grytskiv (rear-naked choke), Saidyokub Kakhramonov (unanimous decision), and Fatkhidin Sobirov (unanimous decision). He won the empty GF Bantamweight Championship in 2019 by submitting Braian González with a rear-naked choke. He also won the FMMAS Bantamweight Championship by beating Wagner Lima in a unanimous decision.

Umar Nurmagomedov's Strength

Umar Nurmagomedov is Known for strong grappling, 57% striking accuracy, and endurance, he's ranked and a heavy favorite.

Mario Bautista's recent form

Mario Bautista is 5 feet 9 inches tall and weighs 135 pounds. He has won 16 times and lost 2 times. He is 32 years old and has a reach of 69 inches. He fought Patchy Mix last and won by unanimous decision in the third round. Mix hit 96% of his significant strikes from a distance, but Bautista was even better, hitting 99% of his. Bautista hit 173 of 302 significant strikes, which is 57% of all his attempts. Mix hit 122 of 304 important strikes. Mix hit 92 out of 265 headshots, while Bautista hit 96 out of 216 headshots. Even though Mix was accurate, Bautista was able to hit more strikes overall.

Mario Bautista`s Strength

Mario Bautista's recent form

Mario Bautista is 5 feet 9 inches tall and weighs 135 pounds. He has won 16 times and lost 2 times. He is 32 years old and has a reach of 69 inches. He fought Patchy Mix last and won by unanimous decision in the third round. Mix hit 96% of his significant strikes from a distance, but Bautista was even better, hitting 99% of his. Bautista hit 173 of 302 significant strikes, which is 57% of all his attempts. Mix hit 122 of 304 important strikes. Mix hit 92 out of 265 headshots, while Bautista hit 96 out of 216 headshots. Even though Mix was accurate, Bautista was able to hit more strikes overall.

Mario Bautista`s Strength

Mario Bautista is quietly elite at 135. 16–2, 8 straight. 6.13 SLpM, 49% acc, 55% def. R1 RNCs of Kelleher and Cannetti, then outboxed Patchy Mix over 3 at UFC 316. Title-shot ready.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista: Betting Insights, Tips & Odds

• Umar Nurmagomedov asks Dana White for his co-main event bout at UFC 321 against Mario Bautista to be a No. 1 contender fight.
• White responds saying to go out there and put on a show that makes people want the winner of this bout to fight for the title next. UFC 321 is on October 25, 2025 in Abu Dhabi, UAE.
• This week the squad’s all in on Umar Nurmagomedov — Khabib’s bloodline runs deep, and the dominance runs even deeper. Mario Bautista’s tough, but Umar’s levels above — elite wrestling, razor-sharp timing, and that Dagestani pressure that never stops.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista Prediction

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista Prediction

You won't want to miss the fight between Jailton Almeida and Alexander Volkov. Volkov has won 38 times and lost 11 times. He is 36 years old, 6 feet 7 inches tall, weighs 250 pounds, and has an arm span of 80 inches. Almeida is 34 years old, 6 feet 3 inches tall, and weighs 205 pounds. He has won 22 times and lost 3 times, and his reach is 79 inches. Almeida is much more active than Volkov, who only gets 0.61 takedowns every 15 minutes. Almeida gets 6.58 takedowns every 15 minutes. Volkov hits 4.97 times per minute on average and has a 57% accuracy rate. Almeida hits 2.62 strikes per minute with a 65% accuracy rate. Umar Nurmagomedov is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the bantamweight division, and this is another exciting fight. He can control exchanges because he is an elite wrestler. He hits the ground almost 2.0 times per minute and has great defense, stopping 78% of takedowns. Once Umar is on top, he uses pressure and accuracy to break his opponents down. Umar's strikes are also dangerous because they hit 57% of the time, and he mixes them in with his takedown setups. Bautista is great at scrambles and submissions, but Umar's calmness and positioning make those chances few and far between. Umar will probably control the fight with feints, level changes, and clean entries. He will use ground control and effective striking to get a dominant decision or a late finish.

Our match prediction is W1 to win by points with odds at 1.60 on 1Xbet.

Our betting tip on the match is W1 to win by decision or technical decision with odds at 1.60 on Bet365.

Lastly, fight to go the -3.5 Spread Umar Nurmagomedov at odds of 1.60 on Betway