Adrian Mannarino vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction: Veteran craft versus young Italian shotmaker in Beijing

Adrian Mannarino
Adrian Mannarino
Start
Day
Hours
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Seconds
Finished
Live
28 Sep 2025 08:00
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo Musetti
Tennis ATP 500 Beijing China Round of 16
Date: 28 September 2025
Kickoff: 08:00 MSK
Venue: Beijing National Tennis Center
Raphael George
27 Sep 2025
14:10
All time statistics:
1929
1167
96
60.43%
Statistics
Odds
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Odds 1,6
Bet Type Musetti to win
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Adrian Mannarino vs Lorenzo Musetti: Prediction for the Match on September 28, 2025

At ATP 500 China Open (Beijing), Round of 16, Adrian Mannarino will be up against Lorenzo Musetti - a typical style of play confrontation: Mannarino’s lefty consistency against Musetti’s offensive one-handed uniqueness. Musetti, who is ranked higher and is within the top 10, comes from a very good Chengdu tournament, whereas Mannarino has already started the Beijing tournament with an easy win. Such a clash is loaded with important ATP points and is very likely to be used for set-market betting instead of just predicting the outcome of the match.

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Adrian Mannarino (ATP ~No.60) is a veteran left-hander who relies on balance, flat, directionally hitting and the ability to make the opponent uncomfortable rather than just hitting a lot of winners. His winning record in 2025 has been rather modest (ESPN shows a total of 11–11 roughly for the year), and his first-round China Open performance was a typical 6–4, 6–4 controlled win in Beijing — a showcase of his experience and skill still paying off on the hard courts. Mannarino’s serve, as a whole, is not a major weapon but with his first-serve percentages and his ability to prolong rallies, opponents are forced to take extra risks; he wins a lot of points with low errors and can make impatience pay off. In facing aggressive baseline players, he tries to use depth, angles and patience to negate their big strokes; his main defect is that he suffers to continuous hitting and very high first-serve percentages.

Lorenzo Musetti (ATP No.9) is one of those players who just cannot be predicted, as he is constantly mixing heavy topspin, a beautiful one-handed backhand, light drop shots, and weird angles that disrupt the usual way of playing. 2025 has been a good year for him, and he made it to the final in Chengdu a few days ago before a tight three-set defeat; that tournament run not only highlights his good shape but also his character of playing long, high-variance matches.

He started his campaign in Beijing with a very close three-set victory but was briefly making the news for his on-court explosion which he quickly regretted and issued an apology for; the event is noise in the background, but it is still there because temperament can have an effect in the tight parts of the game. Musetti normally serves about 3–4 aces per match this year and has both the energy and the means to take the initiative — he is the player with the most potential to win points and to turn the set and match in his favor, but at the same time, there is the possibility of his being volatile in the final moments of the match.

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Mansetti and Mannarino are 1–1 H2H: Mannarino won at Indian Wells (11 Mar 2023, 6–4, 6–4), while Musetti prevailed in Chengdu (22 Sep 2024, 6–2, 5–7, 6–2).

  • Over 24.5 Total Games — H2H and recent results indicate multiple competitive sets rather than a short straight-sets blowout.
  • Both Players to Win a Set — both players’ recent matches reveal they often split sets; Musetti’s unpredictability plus Mannarino’s defense confirm this.
  • Musetti to Win (Match Winner) — performance, ranking, and recent tournament participations with deep runs lean towards Musetti to win, albeit not by a great margin.
  • Set 3 Over 9.5 Games — the deciding set between an experienced grinder and a streaky shotmaker usually gets elongated.
  • Combined Aces Under 10.5 — both players have ~3–4 aces per match as an average; thus, a conservative combined aces under line is logical.

Don't be surprised if Lorenzo Musetti pulls through in three tight sets. However, expect at least one set to be taken by Mannarino. Although Musetti's armory and his good shape of late confirm him as the clear favorite, Mannarino's solidity and know-how on hard courts will still allow him to grab a set or keep the rallies going. Safe bets would be on set markets and modest totals rather than a straight-sets wager considering their H2H and recent matches.

Best bet recommendations:-

🎾 Musetti to win @ 1.6 odds on 1xbet 

🎾 Both Players to Win a Set @ 2.29 odds on Betway

🎾 Over 22.5 Total Games @ 1.95 odds on Bet365

⚠️ Disclaimer: Odds change quickly. This content is informational only. Bet legally and responsibly. If you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Q1: When is Adrian Mannarino vs Lorenzo Musetti being played?

The match is scheduled for September 28, 2025, at 08:00 MSK during the ATP 500 China Open in Beijing.

Q2: Where is the match taking place?

The match will be held at the Beijing National Tennis Center, host of the ATP 500 China Open.

Q3: Who is the favorite to win this matchup?

Lorenzo Musetti enters as the higher-ranked player (Top-10) and recent Chengdu finalist, making him the betting favorite against Adrian Mannarino.

Q4: What are the top betting tips for this match?

Popular betting angles include Musetti to win, Both players to win a set, and Over 24.5 total games in this best-of-three battle.

Q5: Where can I find detailed betting analysis for this match?

You can read the full match preview, predictions, and betting insights on TelecomAsia.net.

Odds
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Odds 1,6
Bet Type Musetti to win
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Odds 2,29
Bet Type Both Players to Win a Set
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Odds 1,95
Bet Type Over 22.5 Total Games
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