Ajla Tomljanovic vs Jessica Pegula Prediction: Can underdog Tomljanović shock Pegula in Beijing?

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27 Sep 2025 06:00
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Tennis WTA 1000 Beijing China Round of 64
Date: 27 September 2025
Time: 06:00 MSK 
Venue: National Tennis Center Beijing 
Raphael George
26 Sep 2025
12:21
All time statistics:
1929
1167
96
60.43%
Statistics
Odds
Bet Type
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Odds 1,615
Bet Type Pegula win & under 21.5 games
Bonus 100 EUR
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Ajla Tomljanovic vs Jessica Pegula: Prediction for the Match on September 27, 2025

The China Open (WTA 1000) is back at the National Tennis Center in Beijing from Sept 24–Oct 5, 2025 — this second-week hard-court swing just earns your late-season ranking points and race positioning.

After a successful 2025 season, World No.7 Jessica Pegula, the seeded favorite, is coming. Ajla Tomljanović (WTA ~No.94) has advanced to Round of 64 and has a confidence-boosting victory acquired recently.

This fight is actually top-seed vs a brave underdog, a favorite scenario for bettors who should concentrate on low-variance markets (match winner, set betting, totals) instead of longshots.

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Ajla Tomljanović is placed within the WTA top 100 (WTA profile states WTA No.94 and a 2025 YTD record around 20–21), and she has made a great season with her hard court and clay results. In the first round of Beijing, she started with a solid 7-6(1), 6-2 win over Yuliia Starodubtseva, and she was successful in breaking the rhythm and finishing the points in two sets by using the return's depth and net approaches. The tennis of Tomljanović is a combination of her consistent ground strokes, her aggressive attitude to come to the net, and her experience in extending the rallies until her opponents commit mistakes; she will try to keep the points long, focus on Pegula's second serve and convert defense into quick offense. When playing against an opponent from the top 10, she will require almost perfect serves and short error-free rallies to have set opportunities. 

One of the top 10 players in the world (WTA No.7 on the latest rankings) and a very stable hard-court season, Jessica Pegula entered with an excellent 2025 win-loss record (around 42-17 YTD) in Beijing. Her groundstroke game is a combination of good ball-striking, well-placed serves, and defensive transition made with discipline; those characteristics give her the least trouble in WTA 1000 matches where depth and margin are critical. Pegula was crowned with titles and achieved good results this season and she has defeated Tomljanović quite recently (e.g., Charleston) which has given her a straightforward tactical plan: attack the return, be patient during big rallies and go to the net with the ball converted. Pegula is going to be the one controlling the rhythm of the big points and making the most of the opportunities that come with game pressure.

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Jessica Pegula leads their meetings (Pegula vs Tomljanović) in official H2H records; she’s beaten Ajla multiple times with the most recent 6-3, 6-2 (Charleston 2025).

  • Pegula to win (Match Winner) — strongest low-variance play: top-10 form vs a top-100 opponent.
  • Pegula 2-0 (Straight Sets) — safer than a longshot and priced reasonably at set-bet lines.
  • Over 19.5 Total Games — Tomljanović tends to push sets; markets often price this line shallow (–110) and it’s a conservative totals play.
  • Set 1 Over 9.5 Games — both players probe early; use if you want a short-term in-play hedge.
  • Tomljanović to Win at least one Set — upside if she gets hot; treat as speculative cover only.

Jessica Pegula is the expected winner; this should be a relatively routine hard-court win for her, but expect Tomljanović to take games and possibly a set if Pegula starts slowly. 

My bet recommendations:-

🎾Pegula win & under 21.5 games @ 1.615 odds on 1xbet 

🎾Pegula win 2-0 @ 1.6 odds on Bet365

🎾Under 19.5 games @ 1.82 odds on Betway

⚠️ Disclaimer: Odds change quickly. This content is informational only. Bet legally and responsibly. If you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Odds
Bet Type
Bookmaker
Claim Bonus!
Odds 1,615
Bet Type Pegula win & under 21.5 games
Bonus 100 EUR
Bet Now!
Odds 1,6
Bet Type Pegula win 2-0
Bet Now!
Odds 1,82
Bet Type Under 19.5 games
Bonus 250 USD
Bet Now!

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