Alejandro Davidovic Fokina vs Daniil Medvedev: Prediction for the Match on October 06, 2025
The ATP Shanghai Masters 2025 Round of 32 is brought to life by a gripping encounter between Daniil Medvedev (World No. 18) and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (No. 20), who are not only hard-court specialists but are also looking forward to getting a good start in this great ATP 1000 event. Medvedev, although he was a bit cramped, had quite a good run to the Beijing semifinal and so he intends to keep it going. He is basically trying to get back to his top form which is a bit off due to a hard year. His season record is 31-20 and the hard-court record is 17-11 thus far. Davidovich Fokina, at the instance, is energetic with a 37-22 summary of the career, and 22-13 on hard in particular, after a 6-4, 6-4 victory over Matteo Arnaldi. Unfortunately, he also has to deliver the bad news of his straight-sets defeat to Medvedev. Shanghai's fast outdoor hard courts are perfect for baseline grinders, which is why one thinks of Medvedev's long stays here in the past. X users have been extremely active and a few are even heatedly discussing this matter – On the one hand, Medvedev is the best and tactical, on the other hand, young Davidovich Fokina has a lot of energetic fists to show. This is what tennis predictions and Shanghai Masters 2025 betting lovers live for. Besides, their confrontation is even more exciting due to the fact that Medvedev supremacy staggers the complete record (5-1), including the latest hard-court thrashing. It will not be surprising if monopolists follow one of the surest trends, like Medvedev wins in straight sets, to make profit.
Claim Welcome Bonus🇪🇸 Alejandro Davidovic Fokina: form and statistics
World No. 20, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, brings his signature dynamism to the Shanghai Masters 2025 Round of 32 in a fiercely competitive season, with ATP data showing that he is 37-22 overall and has won 22 of 13 hard court matches. He didn't falter through the early stages of the event, outplaying Matteo Arnaldi 6-4, 6-4 in the second round, successfully turning half of his break chances (2/4) and working his first serve at 78% of points gained.
The player is on a hot streak as he has been in three finals recently: Delray Beach, Acapulco, and Washington, and also made it to the 4th round of the Australian Open, marking his career-best year with that progress. However, Davidovich Fokina's energy hasn't been unbreakable; instances like his five-set US Open defeat to Arthur Rinderknech and 6-3, 6-3 Beijing loss to Medvedev have toned down the momentum. The athleticism of Davidovich Fokina is behind the fact that his game is flexible as his strong forehand generates 25% of his winners and he doesn't hesitate as well to attack the net (success rate 75%). Besides, he is ranked among the best in the percentage of break points he converts (close to 40% on the hard) and he is happy to extend the rallies beyond 5 shots where he also makes use of the drop shot (last time he played, 15% of points were won this way) to confuse.
In terms of the hard courts, as shown by the 82% first-serve hold rate, the player is quite solid, but his performance can be affected by double faults (he averages 3 per match) when he is under pressure.
🇷🇺 Daniil Medvedev: form and statistics
Medvedev Daniil, No. 18 in the ATP rankings, comes back to the Round of 32 at the Shanghai Masters 2025 with a new spirit after a 31-20 total record for the season, with 17-11 on hard courts alone. By the way the stats say so. During his last Beijing campaign, he showed a lot of character when he won against Cameron Norrie 6-3, 6-4 in his first match and followed it up by a shocking victory over Alexander Zverev, and a walk-over against Davidovich Fokina 6-3, 6-3 in the second round although he had to retire due to cramps in the semifinals against Learner Tien.
Medvedev conquered Dalibor Svrcina 6-1, 6-1 in Shanghai, which was a clear indication of great baseline play and that his physical condition had greatly improved. His service return has been brilliant since he gets 42% of his return points among the elite of the tour, on the other hand, his first serve (on average 8 aces per match) is the main factor of his overall superiority in long rallies as the duration of the rally can be 5.5 shots per point.
The Medvedev hard court defense and flat ground strokes are very effective on the medium fast hard courts in Shanghai where he always manages to go through at least the QF. His 86% first serve points won out of the match against Zverev is just one of the many examples of the high level of serve that he always manages to bring and he has even been very efficient at going to the net; he has saved the break points in all the matches he played this fall.
Medvedev is in fact a hard-court virtuoso, for example, his main talents were very much on display in his 2021 US Open triumph, where he methodically dismantled someone of the aggressor, that is counterpunching. In the match against Davidovich Fokina, Medvedev's greater experience (leading 5-1 head-to-head, 3-1 on hard) will allow him to dictate the speed of the play, thus taking in the pace and making the opponent commit errors in the cross-court exchanges.
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Alejandro Davidovic Fokina vs Daniil Medvedev Head-to-Head Statistics
According to the ATP statistics, Medvedev has a very impressive record of 5-1 wins over Davidovich Fokina, out of which he has won 3-1 on hard courts. Their most recent encounter at the Beijing 2025 tournament was a Medvedev's 6-3, 6-3 victory, where he dominated the rallies and was able to save all his break points. On average, matches go for 22 games with Medvedev's groundstroke control being decisive in straight sets on hard courts. Davidovich Fokina's only success against Medvedev was in Montreal 2024 (6-4, 1-6, 6-2), but conditions in Shanghai are more suitable for Medvedev's defensive game, which could mean that he will have another game with high-quality and fast win in Round of 32.
Alejandro Davidovic Fokina vs Daniil Medvedev Betting Tips and Odds
- Medvedev to Win (1.65): It is really safe to take this bet as your anchor for the rest of your betting strategy. The statistics show that Medvedev has beaten his opponent 5 times out of the last 6 matches and the models give him a 60% probability of winning. Apart from that, his 17-11 hard-court record this year is also supportive of this bet.
- Under 22.5 Total Games (1.91): The last 4 times that these players have met the total number of games was below 22.5, and the average of games for these matches was very low. Medvedev's power tennis can finish a match in no time, for example in Beijing he defeated his opponent 6-3, 6-3, so a quick settlement of the match is possible.
- Medvedev to Win 2-0 Sets (2.30): He is strong and very stable in all of the recent hard court matches against his opponents, and this includes the Beijing match where he won in straight sets. Further, due to his serve (86% of points won) he is not expected to lose many games in any of the sets.
- Medvedev -2.5 Games Handicap (1.83): He is successful in covering this 60% of hard court victories this season. He is also so dominant in baseline rallies that the opponent has no choice but to commit errors as it happened in the match against Svrcina (6-1, 6-1) where he won easily.
- No Tie-Break (1.67): Tie-breaks are very few in the history of this rivalry (less than 20%). Medvedev is very strong on his return and as a result, he breaks the opponent's serve very often on Shanghai hard.
- Davidovich Fokina Under 8.5 Games Won (2.00): A reliable prop; he was restricted to 6 games in the Beijing defeat, which goes hand-in-hand with Medvedev's defensive numbers (42% return points). Odds are just an example from 1xbet, please refer to the actual odds.
Alejandro Davidovic Fokina vs Daniil Medvedev Match Prediction
On Shanghai's outdoor hard courts, Medvedev's tactical baseline brilliance is likely to ground Davidovich Fokina's athletic flair resulting in a controlled Round of 32 victory at the ATP Shanghai Masters 2025. Medvedev 42% return points wins is a strategy that severely limits the options of Davidovich Fokina's second serve (55% put-away), thus allowing Medvedev to dictate the rallies with errors occurring as they average 5.5 shots. Their confrontation in Beijing (Medvedev 6-3, 6-3) is a perfect example of his advantage, with X polls registering 60% support of the Russian's comeback of form after the Beijing semi-finals. Davidovich Fokina's quickness may definitely grab a couple of games at the start but Medvedev's experience of breaking sconces off when saving all break points in the last matches, will definitely make execution tough for Medvedev.
Below are my top 3 bets for this match:
Our main prediction: Medvedev to Win @ 1.6 odds on Betway
Our betting tip for the match: Under 24.5 games @ 1.61 odds on 1xbet
Our final betting tip for the match: Medvedev win 2-0 @ 2.25 odd on Bet365
Other predictions
