The Monte Carlo Masters serves up another spicy all-Spanish clash as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina takes on world No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz. This one's got all the ingredients of a thriller—contrasting styles, past history, and high-stakes clay-court tension. Davidovich Fokina, fresh off a commanding win, looks dialed in with four consecutive victories, while Alcaraz, despite recent struggles, still carries the aura of a Grand Slam champ. Add in Monte Carlo’s slower clay and unpredictable winds, and we’ve got ourselves a compelling match-up. The question is: Can the underdog bite back, or will Alcaraz continue to dominate his countryman? Let’s break it down from form to forecast.
Claim Welcome BonusDAVIDOVICH FOKINA
It’s no secret Davidovich Fokina thrives on clay. He’s scrappy, fiery, and when he’s on, he’s a problem for anyone—especially on the red dirt. The Spaniard enters this match on a 4-win tear, looking razor-sharp in his demolition of Popyrin. He hit just 1 ace, but more importantly, committed zero double faults—a clear sign of control from the baseline and the service line.
What really stood out was his 68% first-serve percentage and a nasty 36% win on first serve return. Those numbers suggest he’s not just holding his own—he’s actively putting pressure on return games. Even though he didn’t face any break points in his last match, converting 3 break points out of a handful shows clinical finishing.
He’s riding a three-set win streak and seems to be enjoying a purple patch in Monte Carlo. While he's still outside the top 40, this version of Davidovich isn't to be taken lightly, especially when confidence is flowing and the rallies get long and gritty. With his movement, drop shots, and return game firing—don’t rule out a surprise.
CARLOS ALCARAZ
Let’s be honest—Alcaraz hasn’t quite looked like his dominant self in recent weeks. Two early-round exits had fans scratching their heads, but a tough 3-set win over Arthur Fils may be the jolt he needed. That match wasn’t pretty, though. Despite coming out on top, he tossed in 7 double faults and landed only 61% of his first serves. That’s a red flag, especially on clay where rhythm and percentage tennis win the day.
What he did get right, though, was break point conversion—capitalizing on 5 chances and saving 63% of the break points he faced. That mental toughness under pressure? Still very much alive.
Alcaraz’s raw talent is undeniable. He can turn defense into attack with a flick of the wrist, and when he gets into the groove, he’s a nightmare to face. But the key issue right now is rhythm. If Davidovich starts fast and keeps the points long, Carlos will need to raise his level—quickly.
Still, as the higher seed and with the experience edge, Alcaraz is the favorite. But if he serves like he did against Fils, he’ll give his opponent chances—and Davidovich might just take them.
HEAD TO HEAD
H2H Record: Alcaraz 1, Davidovich 0
Last Meeting: ATP 500 Barcelona 2023 – Alcaraz won 2-0
Their only meeting came last year on similar clay courts, with Alcaraz winning in straight sets. While that might make Alcaraz backers feel comfortable, it's worth noting that Davidovich is in much better form now—and he’s had a knack for upsetting top players in Masters events. It’s a limited sample size, but enough to suggest this isn’t a walkover by any stretch.
Expert Betting Tips
Davidovich Fokina +4.5 Games Handicap @ 1.738 Odds
With his form and Alcaraz’s recent inconsistency, the underdog covering the spread is very likely.
Over 21.5 Total Games @ 1.683 Odds
Both players are comfortable on clay and this could easily go the distance.
Alcaraz to Win 2-1 @ 1.72 Odds
Moderate risk, high reward. A three-set thriller is definitely on the cards.
Other predictions
