Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction: Underdog Spike vs Canadian Firebrand on Outdoor Hard Court

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Denis Shapovalov: Prediction for the Match on July 20, 2025

The ATP 250 Los Cabos final, held on July 20, 2025, is a fascinating encounter outside on hardcourt at the Estadio Mextenis, with Aleksandar Kovacevic (World No. 76) facing Denis Shapovalov (No. 33). Kovacevic has impressed with his rise and resilience over the past months while Shapovalov provides elite shot-making and form. This preview provides insight into rankings, momentum, head-to-head projections, betting trends, and best value picks for this all-important fixture.

🇺🇸 Aleksandar Kovacevic

Aleksandar Kovacevic, an American player who is currently ranked No. 76 as per Sofascore with 799 pts, is enjoying a breakthrough year. He reached the final this week after previously upsetting Félix Auger‑Aliassime in Montpellier (as qualifier runner-up), as well as overcoming Andrey Rublev in a dramatic semifinal in Los Cabos. He now holds a 28–19 record for the season and has displayed resilience, almost seeing reversal of momentum on a number of occasions. Kovacevic is almost unknown in the social media world but he said after beating Rublev, "once you get a win... you believe you can do it again". His one-handed backhand and depth from the baseline have flourished this season on hard courts. Fueled by confidence and aiming to claim his first title while achieving his highest ranking, Kovacevic will bank on his mental strength and tactical consistency against Shapovalov.

🇨🇦 Denis Shapovalov

Canada's Denis Shapovalov, the world number 33, arrives in the best form possible. The left-hander won the Dallas ATP 500 earlier this year, his third career title, with key victories over top‑10 players. At Los Cabos, he's now 3–0 in matches, with a scoreline of 2–0 in all three, giving away just 12 games in the process. A post-match interview had him stating that focusing on offensive power "is paying off" . His lethal forehand and crisp one-handed backhand, combined with being one of the best returners on outdoor hard courts, allow him to thrive. Shapovalov's goal now is to firm up his Top 30 resurgence with a Los Cabos victory in 2025.

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Denis Shapovalov Head-to-Head Statistics

This is the first ATP-level meeting between Kovacevic (No. 76) and Shapovalov (No. 33), with their record at 0–0.

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Denis Shapovalov Betting Tips and Odds

• Shapovalov hasn’t dropped a set this week, dominant on serve and groundstrokes.
• Kovacevic twice overturned set deficits to beat top‑10 opposition this season—in Montpellier and Los Cabos semis.
• Shapovalov conceded only 12 games across three matches, signalling potential for quick finishes.
• Kovacevic's two top‑10 wins reflect his capability to break serve in key moments, offering upset potential.
• With Shapovalov’s first‑serve points win rate in the mid‑70% range and strong break-point play, over-first-set markets look promising.

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Denis Shapovalov Match Prediction

I expect Shapovalov to control the match early and finish in straight sets, but Kovacevic’s grit could extend rallies and service games. The over‑21 games bet adds smart value. Below is a summary of my tips:

🥇Denis Shapovalov to win by -3.5Handicap @ 1.79 odds on Bet365.com —

His form, shot-making, and dominance on hard courts make him the favorite here.

🥇Shapovalov win first set @ 1.6 odds on Betway.com —

Riding momentum and quality serve, he's likely to open strong.

🥇Total Games Over 21 @ 1.63 odds on 1xbet.com —

 Despite a straight-set prediction, Kovacevic’s resistance and comeback ability may stretch one set deep—ideal for the over market.