Buckle up, folks—this one's got “potential upset” written all over it. World No. 2 Alexander Zverev faces off against a resurgent Matteo Berrettini in the Monte Carlo Masters. While Zverev is the higher seed, his recent form hasn’t exactly screamed confidence, losing two of his last three—including a stumble in Miami to Arthur Fils. Berrettini, on the other hand, is stringing wins together and just cruised past Mariano Navone in straight sets.
Clay might not be Berrettini’s favorite surface, but with a big serve and solid forehand, he’s got the tools to hang in long rallies—and frustrate Zverev, who’s still looking for rhythm. Add in a bit of recent head-to-head heat, and this matchup is dripping with narrative.
In this blog, we’ll dive into each player’s form, what the data’s telling us, and drop our three safest betting tips. Let’s see where the smart money’s going.
Claim Welcome BonusAlexander Zverev (Germany, ATP 2)
Recent Form: L–L–W–W–L
Last Match: Lost to Arthur Fils, Miami R16 – 6-3, 3-6, 4-6
Zverev’s season so far? A bit of a rollercoaster. Sitting at ATP No. 2, you'd expect a bit more consistency—but lately, he's been stalling at the business end of big matches. His recent loss to Arthur Fils in Miami was a prime example: started strong, but faded as the match wore on.
Stat-wise, he’s serving well: 9 aces, no double faults, and 70% first serve in. But here’s the red flag—he only converted 1 break point and posted a 29% first-serve return rate. That’s not gonna cut it against Berrettini, who lives off quick service games and short rallies.
Still, Zverev’s got the clay-court pedigree. He’s a solid mover on the dirt and can dig deep in long baseline exchanges. But mentally? If he doesn’t assert early dominance, things could unravel—especially with Berrettini’s confidence peaking.
In short: Zverev's game is solid, but the timing, the rhythm, the confidence—it’s all just a half-step off right now. That opens the door.
Matteo Berrettini (Italy, ATP 34)
Recent Form: W–W–W–L–W
Last Match: Beat Mariano Navone, Monte Carlo R64 – 6-4, 6-4
Don’t look now, but Matteo Berrettini might be quietly cooking something. After a tough 2023 riddled with injuries, he’s putting together a tidy comeback in 2024. His straight-sets win over Mariano Navone in Monte Carlo wasn’t flashy, but it was efficient—and that’s exactly what we like to see from a player building confidence.
His serve’s still a weapon, even if it wasn’t on full display (just 2 aces vs 4 double faults). The key was the return game—44% first-serve return and 5 break points converted. That’s a huge improvement from the Berrettini we saw earlier this year.
While clay isn’t his comfort zone, Berrettini’s flat forehand and improved return numbers make him a sneaky threat on slower surfaces—especially if he gets time to set his feet. He’s also riding the momentum wave, which can be deadly against someone like Zverev, who’s mentally vulnerable right now.
Berrettini’s no longer just “the big server with a one-two punch.” He’s evolving—and this version could absolutely punch above his ranking.
Head to Head: Zverev 4 – Berrettini 2
Their rivalry has some spice, no doubt. Zverev leads the head-to-head 4-2, but—and here’s the kicker—Berrettini won their most recent meeting in straight sets: 6-3, 7-6, 7-6. That win came in 2023 and left a mark, especially considering how tightly contested the match was.
Most of their previous encounters have been close, often decided by a few key points on serve. What’s more telling is that Berrettini has started solving the Zverev puzzle. He's figured out how to pressure Zverev’s second serve and hold his own in long rallies.
Zverev still holds the historical edge, but there’s a noticeable shift in recent dynamics. Berrettini’s mix of power, placement, and confidence is starting to counter Zverev’s baseline grinding. This head-to-head leans in Zverev’s favor on paper—but right now, momentum might be with the Italian.
Expert Betting Tips
Over 22 Total Games @ 1.60 Odds
• These two usually go deep in sets. Berrettini's improved return game and Zverev’s service holds suggest we’re getting at least one tight set or even a decider.
Zverev to Win @ 1.6 Odds
• Despite his inconsistency, the model still favors Zverev’s all-around clay game and deeper return game when it matters. But not by much.
Match to Go to 3 Sets @ 2.22 Odds
• The mental volatility on both sides, combined with current form, sets this one up for a three-set battle.
Where’s the smart money? It’s on a close one. Zverev’s got the clay experience, but Berrettini’s form, confidence, and improved return metrics make him a serious threat. Expect fireworks—and don’t be surprised if the Italian pulls off the upset.
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