Alexandre Muller vs Karen Khachanov Prediction: Can Muller’s counterpunching disturb Khachanov’s hard-court momentum at Beijing’s National Tennis Centre?

Alexandre Müller
Alexandre Müller
Start
Day
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Finished
Live
25 Sep 2025 05:00
Russia
Russia
Tennis ATP 500 Beijing China Round 32 
Date: Sept 25, 2025
Kickoff: 05:00
Venue: National Tennis Center China 
Raphael George
24 Sep 2025
11:01
All time statistics:
1929
1167
96
60.43%
Statistics
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Bet Type Karen Khachanov win and under 2.5 sets
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Alexandre Muller vs  Karen Khachanov: Prediction for the Match on September 25, 2025

China Open (ATP 500) at the National Tennis Centre, Beijing is an event that will take place from September 25 to October 1, 2025; the men’s Round of 32 match between Alexandre Muller and Karen Khachanov is going to be held at the tournament’s early days (official order-of-play will provide the exact court and time). Khachanov, who is in very good form at the end of summer, is the bookmakers' favorite to win; Muller is a highly unpredictable opponent that, if almost perfect in serving and returning, will be able to take a set off him. For the final court and a kickoff, please check ATP order-of-play on match day.

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Alexandre Muller (France) is a successful tour player who managed to enter the Top-50 in 2025 — the best rank of his career is near ATP No.38 (snapshot of August 2025). This season he has made pretty good results on the hard courts (an ATP title at the beginning of the year and some Masters/main-tour victories) but his 2025 form has been somewhat unsteady: most public trackers show his 2025 singles record around ≈20–21 wins / low-20 losses. The style of Muller is based on his compact footwork, brilliant depth and consistency, and a low-error profile - he likes to be at the bottom, prolong rallies and change break opportunities into breaks of serve rather than overpower opponents. In the match with Khachanov his strategy will be straightforward: do not allow the big first serve to have a big effect, hit the ball quickly on the second serves and make the points long so that the Russian’s space for hitting winners decreases. He is a threat when his first-serve percentage and return depth both are perfect.

Karen Khachanov (Russia) is a heavy-ball baseliner whose power and consistency will make him one of the top hard-court players in 2025. The ATP ranking history shows that he reached top-10 level after an excellent late-summer run (deep at Masters/1000 events) and a strong season record (public trackers show ~29–30 wins to ~20 losses in 2025). Khachanov’s signature shots are a big, heavy serve and a flattening forehand which he uses to finish points quickly - he complements a defensive approach with a powerful first-strike game. His recent results (hot runs at North American hard-court events) indicate to us that he comes here with the right mindset and match fitness. In the match against Muller, he will be looking to keep points short, targeting second serves, and steering clear of long, low-error rallies where Muller is good. Models and book markets are on his side making him the solid favorite here.

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Khachanov leads the pair 1–0; their only prior tour meeting was at the Moselle Open (Metz) on 21 Sep 2021 — Khachanov won 4-6, 6-1, 6-3. 

  • Khachanov — Match Winner (market/model consensus range ~66–76%). Heavy favourite per analysis and bookies.
  • Khachanov 2-0 (straight sets) — bookmakers often price this competitively (implied ~50–55% on many bookmakers).
  • Khachanov to win 1st set — higher single-market probability (~65%); useful for same-match parlays.
  • Game handicap (Khachanov −3.5) — alternative to 2-0 that protects vs tight 7-5 sets.

I predict Karen Khachanov to win — most likely in straight sets. Khachanov’s serve + first-strike game shortens points and makes straight sets likelier; Muller needs to extend rallies and win return games to create an upset.   

Best bet recommendations:-

🏅Karen Khachanov win and under 2.5 sets @ 1.77 odds on 1xbet

🏅Karen Khachanov win 2-0 @ 1.77 odds on Bet365

🏅Karen Khachanov win 2-0 @ 1.75 odds Betway 

⚠️ Disclaimer: Betting odds and lines are subject to change. Please check with your bookmaker for the latest prices before placing any wagers.

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Odds 1,77
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