Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Prediction: Clash of grit and skill

Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff: Prediction and odds on the Match on 03 May 2025

Prediction for the Tennis match which will take place on May 03. Who will turn out to be stronger? Check the players conditions! Several betting options are available.

🇧🇾 Aryna Sabalenka:- WTA No. 1

Aryna Sabalenka continues to show how she has the No. 1 ranking in the world, as she is marching into the finals in Madrid with a sweeping five-match win streak, all being won in straight sets. The semifinal featured her defeating Elina Svitolina, whom she outclassed with a score of 6-3, 7-5, in a display of power and control. Sabalenka fired 4 aces, committed 4 double faults, landed 61% of her first serves, and saved 71% of break points faced. She also won 43% of first-serve return points and converted 4 break-point chances, highlighting both her serving and returning efficiency.

There is not much change in the play style throughout the latest year of the 2025 season for Sabalenka, solidly establishing herself as one of the most even-tempered and one of the most aggressive players on the tour. The 99 aces she has boxed matched with only 39 double faults shows her consistency in the game. She has 65.4 percent success rate with the first and winning 67.8 percent of those points as well as 51.6 percent of the points won from her second serves. She won 77 percent of her service games and converted break points at a very strong rate of 52.2 while saving 63.4 percent in defense.

Sabalenka has more than one trophy in her cabinet for Madrid, having clinched the title twice before, and this is her fourth final here-more than any other player since 2009. It's simply that she feeds on the high-altitude clay, when her power game becomes even more difficult to counter.

🇺🇸 Coco Gauff:- WTA No. 4

Coco Gauff has had an amazing run leading into the Madrid final, giving perhaps the most dominant performance of her career in the semifinal against Iga Swiatek. In just over an hour, Gauff destroyed the defending champion 6-1, 6-1, breaking serve at will and controlling rallies from the baseline. She gave 6 aces and only 1 double fault, landed 66% of her first serves, and returned incredibly well—winning 65% of points on Swiatek's first serve. Gauff saved not a single break point and converted 5 of her own, fully leveraging her aggressive return style. 

Following such inconsistent play earlier this year, particularly on her second serve (38.8% won), Gauff has clamped down her own game on clay quite a bit. Year-to-date, she's shelled out 77 aces and 127 double faults, but when her first serve is on, it is a deadly weapon, winning 72.5% of the time. She makes a great 60.4% of her service games and has converted 57.0% of her break point chances, showing great opportunism. 

Gauff is gaining maturity and strategic sharpness, and now her enhanced mobility on clay is just starting to blend with her inherent ability. This is her first final in Madrid, and after having eliminated the tournament favorite, the momentum is all with her heading into the title match.

🤝 Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Head-to-Head Statistics

The WTA Tour has hosted nine contests between Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff since 2019, with Gauff having made a narrow escape ahead of the series with a lead of 5-4. Intense matches have found Gauff, in particular, winning three of their last four encounters, the latest being at the 2024 WTA Finals in Riyadh, a straight-set 7-6(4), 6-3 win for Gauff. Their previous clash went the way of Sabalenka earlier in the year, in Indian Wells. The clay head-to-head is a little more balanced, though Sabalenka has had wider success in Madrid. This final serves as the very first 2023 meeting between them on clay.

📉 Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Betting Trend

• Gauff's higher break-point conversion rate (57.0%) compared to Sabalenka's (52.2%) indicates potential for more breaks of serve.
• Gauff's higher double fault count (127 YTD) suggests a propensity for service errors under pressure.
• Given both players' recent straight-set victories, the match is likely to be decided in two sets, suggesting a total games under 21.5.
• Sabalenka is favored to win, reflecting her consistent performance and higher ranking.

🎯 Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Match Prediction

The Madrid Open final has all the makings for an exciting matchup between the world's top player Aryna Sabalenka and the resurgent Coco Gauff. Sabalenka's baseline power and strong clay experience do give her the slight edge, yet Gauff's recent wins and versatility pose a serious challenge. 

Both players have shown phenomenal form, and consistent service games from Sabalenka combined with aggressive returns by Gauff should pitch the match up to a high standard. The result might come down to how well Gauff can keep double faults to a minimum and keep the pressure on Sabalenka's serve.

Below are the betting tips for the match:- 

🔥 My prediction for the match is Aryna Sabalenka to win with a coefficient of 1.891 odds on 1xbet

🔥 My betting tip for the match is Total Games Under 22.5 with a coefficient of 1.75 odds on Bet365

🔥 My main betting tip for the match is Aryna Sabalenka to win first set with a coefficient of 1.31 odds on Betway