Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova: Prediction for the Match on June 21, 2025
The Steffi Graf Stadion in Berlin, with its grass courts, holds the promise of a blockbuster match on June 21, 2025, in the semifinal of the Berlin Open, wherein World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka takes on 2023 Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova. This WTA 500 clash offers more than just a ticket to the final-it is a precursor to the Wimbledon match that pits Sabalenka's relentless power against Vondrousova's tactical brilliance. Following a nail-biting victory in the quarterfinals against Elena Rybakina, Sabalenka seeks her first grass title of 2025. Vondrousova, who was ranked 164th due to a shoulder injury, is back to full strength on the grass courts and made a declaration promise in her win over 11th-ranked Ons Jabeur. With their head-to-head standing at 4-3 in favors of one or the other, the bad blood percolates into every past encounter. Do join us for the straightforward analysis, key stats, and top three betting tips for this high-intensity clash.
Claim Welcome Bonus🇧🇾 Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka is the WTA's No. 1 player, one of the two players to have won the Grand Slam title twice (Australian Open in 2023 and 2024). She carries volleys and groundstrokes with grace, lacking the sweet rhythm of polish service. On fast surfaces like grass, she is a force to reckon with, having been to the semifinals of Wimbledon twice (2021 and 2023). Her 2025 season is at 33-7, with titles in Brisbane, Miami, and Madrid but Gauff defeated her in the Roland Garros final of 2025. She enters Berlin, her first grass tournament of the year, at 3-0 with the wins over Rebeka Masarova 6-2, 7-6 (6) and Elena Rybakina 7-6 (6), 3-6, 7-6 (6) in a 2 hour 42 min battle in the quarterfinals. Sabalenka served 8 aces, won 74% of her first-serve points (48/65), and saved 6 of 8 break points against Rybakina. If she believes Berlin is her domain, 7.3 aces per match shall add to it. She has shown improvement on mental resilience, as she stated after her match with Rybakina, "Honestly I have no idea how I was able to win those points." Fans on X, such as @TennisUpdates25, consider her "a beast under pressure." Conversely, she is again pressed for a grass title and the lack thereof is punctuated by the experiences of loss in Grand Slam finals and places urgency on her Berlin run.
🇨🇿 Marketa Vondrousova
The 25-year-old Czech-Vondrousova is a former World No. 6 and the 2023 Wimbledon champion. Her crafty left-handed game, mixing spin, slices, and drop shots, goes perfectly with grass courts. The left shoulder injury that saw her drop down to 164th in the rankings has somehow healed enough for her to pursue a comeback, posting a 9-5 record in 2025. She is 3-0 in Berlin, with wins over Madison Keys, Diana Shnaider (6-3, 6-7(3), 6-3), and an utterly dominant 75-minute quarterfinal thrashing of Ons Jabeur 6-4, 6-1, converting 5 out of 7 break points, winning 68% of her first serve points (25/37), and losing only two points on serve in the entire second set. She has converted a staggering 70% (12/17) of break points through the tournament in Berlin, displaying a ferocious return game. Vondrousova's 2023 Wimbledon title surely flies in the face of any argument about her grass pedigree alongside her recent form, which, as @CANALSportCZ noted on X, reflects "unbreakable focus." She expressed, "I am just happy to be back competing at this level," which, in essence, means confidence. Despite all the current rankings, Vondrousova remains a big threat, especially against big hitters like Sabalenka.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova Head-to-Head Statistics
In their head-to-head record, Sabalenka enjoys a narrow lead of 4-3 in seven meetings, holding a 1-0 record on grass courtesy of their 2018 Libema Open meeting, 6-3, 7-6). The most recent encounter saw Vondrousova defeating Sabalenka 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 on clay in Stuttgart 2024, just ending Sabalenka's four-match rally in the rivalry. Three of their affrays have gone to three sets, demonstrating how competitive it has been. Sabalenka's power-based game works well on the faster surfaces, but Vondrousova's array of shots, especially her drop shots and angles, have troubled the Belarusian, as seen in Stuttgart. On grass, Sabalenka's serve and aggression give her a slight upper hand; however, Vondrousova's 2023 Wimbledon run suggests that she can fight pace with finesse.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova Betting Tips and Odds
- Sabalenka has played tiebreaks in both her Berlin matches, winning both. Her aggressive serve-and-volley style thrives in high-pressure moments, making tiebreak bets a solid option.
- Vondrousova has converted 70% of her break points in Berlin (12/17), exploiting opponents’ serves with her return game. Expect her to challenge Sabalenka’s serve early.
- Sabalenka has won the first set in 80% of her 2025 matches (32/40), including both Berlin wins. Her odds to win the first set (1.44) are appealing.
- Vondrousova’s 2023 Wimbledon title and 3-0 Berlin record show she’s a grass-court specialist. Her +3.5 game handicap (1.988) is a safe bet against Sabalenka’s power.
- Five of their seven H2H matches have exceeded 20.5 games, and Sabalenka’s recent three-setters suggest this could be another long battle. Odds for Over 21.5 games (1.92) look promising.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova Match Prediction
The clash is set to put together the opposite forces of Sabalenka’s raw power against Vondrousova's tactical genius. A clutch display by Sabalenka against Rybakina, during which she saved four match points, shows the mental development she has undergone. However, Vondrousova, a master on the grass courts, makes for a lethal underdog after crushing Jabeur. The Belarusian will rely heavily on her serve; meanwhile, Vondrousova may extend the match by disrupting Sabalenka's rhythm with pace variation. Considering the statistics of prediction platforms like Stats Insider and Tennis Tonic, here are the top three betting tips: For Sabalenka to win in three sets, due to the power and resilience she's shown lately, though Vondrousova will definitely push her hard with craft.
First Set Total Games Over 9.5 ~ 2.17 odds (Betway)
Vondrousova +3.5 Game Handicap ~ 1.988 (1xbet)
Tiebreak - Yes ~ 3.00 odds ~ Bet365
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