We’re in for a treat at the Monte Carlo Masters as two explosive talents face off—Andrey Rublev, the fiery Russian ranked 9th in the world, and France’s ageless showman, Gael Monfils. While Rublev’s recent form is a bit shaky, Monfils has quietly been stringing together some quality wins, reminding us he’s still a threat on any surface.
Rublev has the edge in the rankings and past meetings, but Monfils' unpredictability and current form could throw a wrench in the expected script. With Monte Carlo’s slower clay and swirling conditions, every spin-heavy rally and service return could swing the momentum wildly.
In this blog, we’ll break down their current forms, head-to-head battles, and use a sophisticated data-driven betting model to offer the top five safest betting tips for this clash. Let’s dig into what could be one of the more intriguing early-round matches on the Riviera.
Claim Welcome BonusAndrey Rublev (Russia, ATP 9)
Recent Form: L–L–L–W–L
Last Match: Lost 3-2 to Casper Ruud – UTS Nimes (Exhibition)
Andrey Rublev’s talent is undeniable—but so are his recent struggles. The Russian has dropped four of his last five matches, with confidence looking a bit shaken and decision-making under pressure far from ideal. Even in exhibition play, like the recent 3-2 loss to Casper Ruud at UTS Nimes, Rublev looked erratic—overhitting forehands, rushing points, and letting frustrations bubble up.
On clay, Rublev’s game usually finds more breathing room. He thrives on the slower bounce, giving him time to wind up that monstrous forehand. However, his movement and shot tolerance are far from elite compared to the top-tier clay-court players. And with his first serve dipping below 60% in recent matches, he’s offering too many second serves—ripe for aggressive returns from someone like Monfils.
What’s worrying for backers is the body language: Rublev’s confidence seems rattled. Still, his firepower and baseline dominance can explode at any moment. If he gets into a rhythm early, especially off the return, he could bulldoze Monfils. But that’s a big if right now.
Gael Monfils (France, ATP 44)
Recent Form: W–L–L–W–W
Last Match: Beat Fabio Marozsan 2-1 (4-6, 6-1, 6-1)
The veteran Frenchman is doing veteran things. Gael Monfils, at 37, may not have the consistency of his prime, but he’s still a magician on clay when the legs are fresh—and right now, they seem springy. Coming off a sharp 2-1 win over the rising Fabio Marozsan, Monfils showed flashes of vintage brilliance. He served 4 aces, saved 80% of break points, and won 5 crucial return games—making it clear that he still has weapons on both ends of the court.
Monfils' ability to switch from defense to offense with ease is tailor-made for Monte Carlo’s slow clay. The longer rallies give him time to dig into his athleticism, and his shot selection—particularly the drop shot—can disrupt Rublev’s rhythm. What’s more, the Frenchman seems to be enjoying his tennis again, playing with flair but keeping things relatively focused.
Stats-wise, that 54% first serve percentage needs improving, but his 39% first serve return rate shows he can apply real pressure—especially if Rublev gives him second looks. Monfils’ volatility makes betting risky, but his upside right now? Super intriguing.
Head to Head: Rublev 2 – Monfils 1
Their past meetings slightly favor Rublev, who leads the head-to-head 2-1. Most recently, they clashed at the 2023 US Open where Rublev outlasted Monfils in four topsy-turvy sets: 4-6, 3-6, 6-3, 1-6. While Rublev had the upper hand in that match, Monfils actually grabbed the first set and looked the more fluid player before fading physically.
What’s interesting is that all three matches were on hard courts. Clay adds a whole new dimension—possibly tilting the scale toward Monfils, who’s traditionally enjoyed slower surfaces more. While Rublev has more power, Monfils has the patience and movement to extend rallies, frustrate his opponent, and force errors.
If the match drags on or turns into a grind, history suggests Rublev’s mental game might crack under pressure. But if the Russian starts fast and keeps the rallies short, he’s more than capable of flattening Monfils.
Expert Betting Tips
Over 19.5 Total Games @ 1.66 Odds
• With Monfils’ ability to hold serve and Rublev’s tendency to start slow, expect at least one set going long or possibly three sets.
Monfils to Win a Set @ 1.50 Odds
• He’s done it before, and his current form suggests he’s good for at least one set—especially early if Rublev’s confidence wobbles.
Rublev to Win @ 1.63 Odds
• Despite recent losses, the model still gives Rublev the edge based on shot production, clay stats, and higher break conversion potential.
Final Verdict:
Rublev is the favorite, but Monfils is the wild card—literally and figuratively. This could be a closer affair than the rankings suggest.
Other predictions
