Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alex de Minaur Prediction: We're Sifing With the Favorite

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alex de Minaur: Prediction for the Match on October 4, 2025

As part of the 1/32 finals of the Beijing tournament, Camilo Hugo Carabelli, the 43rd ranked player in the world, will face Alex De Minaur, who is currently ranked eighth in the world. The two players have not faced each other before on the tour, and bookmakers have favored the Australian, believing that he has the best chance of winning in the upcoming match. Let's see if the bookies are correct in their prediction for this encounter.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli: form and statistics

The Argentine arrived in Shanghai on a 4-0 losing streak, which began on August 11 in a tournament in Cincinnati. This was the third tournament for Camilo on Chinese soil this fall. In Hangzhou, he was defeated by Hijikata in two sets, and in Beijing, he lost to Davidovich Fokina in two games. In the current tournament, Hugo Carabelli scored a formal victory over the Frenchman Atman. However, the match was not completed, as Atman withdrew with the score at 4-4 in the first set after 40 minutes of play.During the meeting, Camilo recorded 1 ace, 71% points won on the first serve, and 44% points won on second serve. His reception statistics were 29% effective, and his winners/unforced errors were 6 to 3.

Alex de Minaur: form and statistics

For Alex, the Shanghai tournament was the eighth hard-hitting tournament after Wimbledon, where he reached the fourth round. In Washington, he had victories over Chinese player Yunchao Kete, Czech player Lehechka, American player Nakashima, French player Mute, and Spaniard Davidovich Fokina. As a result, he became the winner of the tournament. In Toronto, De Minaur defeated Komesana and Tiafoe, but lost to Shelton in two sets. In Cincinnati, he lost in the first round to American Opelka. In New York, he won over his compatriot O'Connell and Japanese Mochizuki. He also won against German Altmaier and Swiss Riedi. However, he suffered a loss to Auger-Alliasime. At the Davis Cup, he suffered a defeat against Collignon, but managed to win over Bergs. At the Laver Cup, he faced Zverev in the second round and defeated him in two sets, as well as Menshik. In Beijing, the Australian defeated Chinese Wu in two sets, Frenchman Rindekneh in three sets, and did not play against Menshik. The Czech player withdrew from the match with a score of 4:1 in favor of Alex in the first set, leading to a loss to the second-ranked player in the world, Sinner. The score of the match was 6:3, 4:6, and 6:2, in favor of Yannick. During the match against the Italian player, De Minaur, he made 5 aces, with one double fault. He won 56% of the points on his first serve and 68% on his second serve. The statistics on reception were 18%/54%.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alex de Minaur Match Prediction

Camilo might not have made it to the second round of the Masters if Atman had not been injured during the meeting. Before Shanghai, the Argentine was on a 4-match losing streak and had not been practicing well. Regardless, De Minaur, who has been a very active player during the hard part of the season, will play in his eighth tournament in Shanghai after Wimbledon. Last week in Beijing, Alex performed very well, losing only to the world's second-ranked player and taking a set from Sinner. De Minaur is in good form, both in terms of game practice and overall fitness. To be honest, we do not see how Camilo can defeat a top eight player in the ATP rankings. We think Alex will win confidently tomorrow.

Our main prediction: TU 18.5 for a coefficient of 1.60 in the betway bookmaker.

Our betting tip on the match: W2 & TU (18.5) for a coefficient 1.71 in the 1xbet bookmaker.

Our final betting tip on the match: H2 (-6.5) for a coefficient 1.91 in the bet365 bookmaker.