Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini: Prediction for the Match on November 04, 2025
It’s hard to ignore the blaring desert floodlights around Center Court when two-time major winner Coco Gauff returns to the scene of her 2024 Finals victory. It’s even harder to ignore the 65% win probability paired with 1.536 moneyline odds on 1xbet. This is because Gauff has been winning 77% of her first-serve points during her fall indoor season (WTA). How does she do it? Incredible athleticism retrieving and forcing an opponent error 24 times after their last three matches. This match is pivotal in deciding Group A fate. For one, the victory guarantees a Turin semifinal seed while the other is relegated to a must-win showdown finale. The two also end the match with revenge arcs that intertwine. Each player commands a different surface; Gauff holds the hard courts while Paolini, the clay. Gauff’s post-US Open serve tweak—a wider stance and higher toss—has been a game changer in flat-serve defenses. For Gauff, it’s an achievement to make her mark as a top-3 elite; for Paolini, it’s the rock-bottom offered after the Wimbledon and Roland Garros finals. They both correct what the other has while striving for respect.
Claim Welcome Bonus🇺🇸 Coco Gauff: Form and Statistics
Gauff has been beating almost every player in the WTA circuit. Winning in the finals clinched her position in the top 3 of the WTA leaderboard and increasing her WTA 1000 set won percentage up to 65%. Gauff also boasts a strong yearly record of 47 wins and 14 losses and dominant performances on indoor hard courts with a record of 8 wins and 3 losses. Gauff's performance in the Wuhan tournament has been very convincing. In the semifinals she defeated Paolini 6-4, 6-3 and in the finals she bested Pegula 6-4, 7-5. In the finals Gauff presented 5 break chances in the 7th game and won the game with an ace of 110 km/hour to clinch the set 7-5. In Pegula, Gauff's last 5 indoor matches included 4 wins, with the last being Wuhan 6-4, 7-5. Gauff also lost to Pegula in the final RR of the same tournament. (L-W-W-W-W: l. Pegula 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-2 Finals RR; d. Paolini 6-4, 6-3 Wuhan SF; d. Anisimova 6-3, 6-4 Wuhan QF; d. Bencic 6-2, 6-3 Beijing QF; d. Pegula 6-4, 7-5 Wuhan final) – Tennis Abstract. Gauff also explained her predictability to Tennis.com after her match with Pegula on 2nd Nov. Gauff also played the Wuhan final on 12th Oct with a remarkable performance of 26 winners, 15% of them being slice backhand winners. Gauff also had remarkable net stats, winning 78% of her net points on 42% of her approaches. Paolini also had 14 errors from the low backhand and Gauff capitalized on dominant left spin. Gauff had the prop bets of more than 1.5 aces, stating she averages 5.1 in indoor, and under 21.5 games set with 82% of break conversion. She won 29 hard games up to this point of the year.
🇮🇹 Jasmine Paolini: Form and Statistics
The Key Stats—70% Winning the Deciding Set in 2025 Upsets, Results in 32-10 (WTA) Year-To-Date Record, Hard Indoor 6-4. Wuhan? She Stunned Swiatek 6-1, 6-2 in Quarters, Holding 91% in First Serves, and Lost 6-4, 6-3 in Semis Vs. Gauff, Hitting 19 Winners. Last 5 Indoors: (2-3) L-L-W-W-W (l. Sabalenka 6-3, 6-1 Finals RR; l. Gauff 6-4, 6-3 Wuhan SF; d. Kostyuk 6-4, 7-6(5) Beijing R16; d. Garcia 6-3, 6-4 Wuhan R32; d. Pegula 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 Beijing QF) - Tennis Abstract. Sabalenka Match Stats: “When she serves like that, it's difficult,” (Super Tennis, Nov. 2) Beijing upset Sept. 28: 92% tiebreak hold rate. Micro Stat: 31% drop-shot winners in 7 vs. Gauff. Indoors (Tennis Abstract). Gauff illustrates Paolini's strategy of ripping crosscourt forehands to the wide angles, limiting her top shots. 55% Net. Low slices and in Rome. Props: Paolini +3.5 games @ 1.851 (1xbet). Vs lefties, 9.1-shot rally avg slows. Over 21.5 games @ 1.965- 65% Return Decisive Breaks if Gauff’s serve Declines. Hard YTD: 26-9. Drive? Turin top-5 lock, avenging Wuhan fade. Paolini, honoring Pennetta's legacy, isn't chasing—she's staring directly, and claiming her chapter, fierce and unflinching.
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Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini Head-to-Head Statistics
Coco Gauff 3–3 Jasmine Paolini overall (WTA). After seven encounters since 2021, we know how the story goes—Gauff’s legs vs. Paolini’s precision. Most recently, 2025 Wuhan SF—Gauff 6-4, 6-3 (19 games, 5 breaks total). Serves earned Gauff 2-of-9 possible breaks.
Indoors, Gauff is 2-1, including the 2024 Beijing QF 7-5, 6-2. Paolini’s flats skidded, but couldn’t breach Gauff’s 74% defense (Tennis Abstract). Paolini slapped the Rome final 6-4, 6-2 on clay, but Gauff’s retrieval on hard is even tougher, forcing 26% more errors.
Prop tease—Over 3.5 breaks @ 1.965 (1xbet). 8.7-shot average rallies breed slips.
Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini Betting Tips and Odds
- Gauff ML @ 1.536 (1xbet, 03-Nov 13:28) — 8-3 indoor record and H2H hard edge overpower Paolini’s return for straight-sets control.
- Under 21.5 games @ 1.896 — Gauff’s 82% break rate indoors mirrors Wuhan’s tidy 19-game finish.
- Paolini +3.5 games @ 1.851 — Rally tolerance stretches one set, cashing on Gauff’s rare serve wobbles.
Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini Match Prediction
Who wins? Coco Gauff 65%. Riyadh rematch tilts American—defense dismantling fire to seize Group A.
Set 1: Gauff’s early break via low slices—Paolini’s backhand clips tape—races 6-3, 77% first serves stifling returns.
Set 2: Paolini counters with angled forehands, snagging 3-1 on a Gauff double, but Coco’s legs claw back, saving 3-of-4 breaks in a 7-5 endurance twist.
No third Set—Gauff seals without drama, Wuhan tweaks intact. Upset probability: 20%—Paolini takes straights only if Gauff’s serve dips below 70% (15% indoor anomaly).
Final scoreline: 6–3, 7–5.
Final insight: Gauff’s 65% finals-set grip isn’t a chance—it’s dynasty in motion, a warning that her hunger outruns her years. Paolini battles valiantly, but Coco’s victory carves a statement: defending queen, unbreakable, Turin beckoning louder than ever.
Top 3 Recommended Bets:
Gauff ML @ 1.6 odds on 1xbet (Rating ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐)
Under 21.5 games @ 1.896 odds on Betway (Rating ⭐ ⭐ ⭐)
Paolini +3.5 games @ 1.851 odds on Bet365 (Rating ⭐ ⭐)
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