Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur: Prediction for the Match on October 10, 2025
The Rolex Shanghai Masters 2025 quarterfinals will be a must-watch series. World No. 19 Daniil Medvedev faces No. 7 Alex de Minaur in a crucial ATP 1000 clash that will have a significant impact of their season. Medvedev, the winner here in 2019, is back with a strong run after changing his coaching staff, and he has a combined record of 31-20, and 18-11 on hard courts for this year. De Minaur has a career-best season so far with 50 top-level match wins—he is the third-best player in the world by this metric—and he is also leading the ATP in hard-court wins (37). He is looking for his second Masters 1000 quarterfinal of 2025 after the first one he reached last year.
Shanghai's humid and fast conditions make the match even more thrilling: Medvedev's flat groundstrokes and fantastic returning (33% return points won, according to ATP stats) should work perfectly against de Minaur's flat-hitting aggression and top-tier speed. Their rivalry, consisting of 11 matches, has always resulted in hard-fought hard-court battles, with Medvedev having won five of the six on the surface.
X is on fire with fan debates—#MedvedevVsDeMinaur is trending worldwide—as Medvedev's 2019 Shanghai victory is contrasted with de Minaur's breakthrough Asia swing, including a Beijing semifinal. It is not a quarterfinal only; it is a challenge of stamina in a half of the draw where Sinner and Alcaraz are absent.
Tennis fans are talking about Medvedev's "goblin mode" comeback versus de Minaur's "Demon" consistency, judging from some recent X posts. Bettors, on the other hand, would find the best opportunities in safe, stats-backed plays: de Minaur's 82% hold rate meets Medvedev's 75% first-serve points won here, paving the way for a baseline grinder.
Claim Welcome Bonus🇷🇺 Daniil Medvedev: form and statistics
Ranked 19th in the world, the Russian Daniil Medvedev advances to the Shanghai quarterfinals with a refreshed 31-20 record for the season, of which 18-11 were on hard courts, his favorite surface. Medvedev had a mid-year sour parting with his coach Gilles Cervara—he is now coached by Thomas Johansson and Rohan Goetzke—and he reminded us of his 2021 US Open caliber by reaching the semis in Beijing where he cramped against Learner Tien. The Russian was ruthless in Shanghai: a 6-1, 6-1 rout of Dalibor Svrcina in the second round and then a hard 6-3, 7-6(5) win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the third round before a 7-6(8), 6-7(1), 6-4 thriller against Tien in the Round of 16 for a resurgence. That amazing match—his third against Tien in 2025—lasted 2 hours 46 minutes, and Medvedev saved break points, later putting away a backhand to break in the final set. After Tien's upset victories at the Australian Open and Beijing, the match was called "Battle of Shanghai" by X fans who went crazy for it.
Medvedev's game is perfect for a counterpuncher: powerful, low and flat groundstrokes that keep the adversary at the back of the court, and an overall return game that is the best on tour (33% points won, as per ATP stats). Although he is only good for 6.6 aces per match this year, his true killing weapon is his defense—he achieves this by rallying his opponents to an average of 5.5 shots per point and yet winning 75% of the time when on first serve. Moreover, in Shanghai, he has been blasting off the fields with a perfect 6 for 6 on break points and not conceding a single game during serves while he has been breaking opponents in 38% of the rest of the cases thus showing the pattern of his 2019 title run when he went to the finals dropping just four sets. Medvedev's talent and skill is shown by the advanced statistic: 89% of service games held on the hardcourt and 10 out of 14 career matches won over the past ten years.
Shanghai means a lot to Medvedev—one of his memories is the 2019 title run where he had to battle the best of the best, especially in the final against Zverev.
🇦🇺 Alex de Minaur: form and statistics
Alex de Minaur (World No. 7) has a remarkable season to his credit with 50 wins and 15 losses and is now proceeding to his 7th quarterfinal of Masters 1000 in 2025. A spectacular season record (third most of the tour) with 37 hard-court wins (a record for the tour) is what fueled his success. It's been quite a ride for him in Asia: After a semifinal loss to Sinner in Beijing, he defeated Bu, Rinderknech, and Mensik and then went on to dominate Shanghai. He began his 48th win of the season with a 6-4, 6-2 victory over Camilo Ugo Carabelli (he did not face a single break point), his 49th with a 6-1, 7-5 win against Kamil Majchrzak (five breaks), and his 50th Round of 16 with a 7-5, 6-2 match against Nuno Borges. When de Minaur was looking at winning his second title after Washington, X was buzzing @TennisTourTalk's milestone shoutout.
Alex de Minaur is essentially a player utilizing speed with his remarkable on-court movement, flat backhand slices, and a first serve that wins 82% of points on hard courts (according ATP stats). He has 8 aces on average per match this year, with 75% of points played at the net being successful and rallies averaging 4.8 shots—which are quite suitable for fast points on the pace of Shanghai's surface. He has a 70% win rate on the main tour that includes games on the serve of top-5 held and he has managed to convert 31% of break points while ranking high with defensive winners (25% of total). At Shanghai, he has not lost a set, has held 92% of games, and has broken 45% of chances, according to Infosys ATP Stats.
One of the main factors behind de Minaur's (Washington 2025) success story—his 10th career title and a stepping stone from the speedy underdog to a Top-10 mainstay—are the "Demon" net rushes which X users laud greatly. The media has spotlighted his Laver Cup heroics (Team World 3-0), and post-Borges, he stated to ATP Tour, "In these conditions, being consistent is the most important thing." Historically, he has reached three consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinals without encountering seeded players, however, he hasn't been able to go past quarterfinals in Shanghai.
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Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur Head-to-Head Statistics
Medvedev leads the head-to-head over de Minaur with seven wins to four and has won five of the six matches that were held on hard courts. Their last meeting was a Medvedev 6-2, 6-2 Monte-Carlo win in April 2025 on clay, which was totally his dominance but on average hard-court matches last 32 games and 2.5 hours - are competitive rather than one-sided. De Minaur's only hard-court victory was in a 2018 Sydney match (1-6, 6-4, 7-5) - which was an early upset potential for him. According to ATP data, in 70% of their encounters the number of games goes beyond 22.5 with Medvedev taking 75% of sets. The speed of Shanghai is good for both players but Medvedev's return power (33% points won) is what makes the difference, thus he is the one to be expected to win in a tight three-setter where stamina will be the factor.
Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur Betting Tips and Odds
- Over 22.5 Total Games: In seven of 11 direct encounters, this was exceeded. The average number of games was 32, as both players usually serve at more than 85% on the hard court according to ATP stats—this is perfect for long rallies in Shanghai's conditions.
- Both Players to Win a Set: This happened in 60% of their matches, with de Minaur's speed thus ensuring the break of the opponent in the first set, whereas Medvedev's defense is used to getting the deciding set, a safe trend in Masters 1000 quarters.
- Medvedev Over 7.5 Aces: He has been hitting an average of 6.6 aces per match in 2025 but in more than 70% of his victories in Shanghai, he reached 8 or more aces, thus he was able to use de Minaur's solid returns without overpowering his flat serve.
- De Minaur Under 3.5 Double Faults: His aggressive style has brought him only 2.1 double faults per match on hard courts this year (top-10 lowest), a consistent hold in humid
Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur Match Prediction
Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur perform a quarterfinal masterclass of Shanghai 2025 on Qizhong's floodlit courts during the ATP Shanghai Open 2025 In. It's a fight for redemption in a very open draw: Precision versus pace. Medvedev's tactical wizardry, mixing 33% return points won with incredible stamina (according to his Tien epic), is met with de Minaur's 50-win blitz and Tour-leading 37 hard triumphs. Their 7-4 head-to-head goes in Medvedev's favor, but de Minaur's speed (82% first-serve points) can definitely bring some momentum swings, which is why X polls got it 55% for the Russian's "goblin" comeback (@UniversTennis).
We will see 4.8-shot rallies and a final set, with Medvedev being haunted by the ghosts of 2019 and therefore having a straight-sets advantage—his 75% service hold here overpowering de Minaur's breaks. Fans on X are raving about de Minaur's milestones, but Medvedev's depth is what wins in this tactical tilt. Whose hands will be the lucky ones to hold the ticket to the next round?
Below are my top 3 bets for this match:
Our main prediction: Over 21.5 games @ 1.61 odds on 1xbet
Our betting tip for the match: Medvedev win @ 2.976 odds on Bet365
Our final betting tip for the match: Medvedev +2.5 handicap @ 2.09 odds on Betway
Other predictions
