Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev: Prediction for the Match on October 31, 2025
Daniil Medvedev is going to play against Alexander Zverev for the 16th time, and the Russian player has a 9-7 head-to-head (H2H) record as well as a 5-0 streak since 2023 (ATP). At 54% implied probability (1.842 on 1xbet), Medvedev is the favorite to continue his dominance indoors.
This quarterfinal match is of enormous importance. Medvedev, 11th in the Turin race, is in need of a deep run if he is to be able to challenge the top 8. Zverev, the 2020 champion, is looking to secure his Finals seeding and put an end to the H2H losing streak. Indoor 2025: Medvedev 8-2, Zverev 7-3 (ATP).
Medvedev’s return of serve is very strong—he is ranked among the top-15 players in first-serve return points won (Infosys ATP Stats)—and that is why he is able to take advantage of Zverev’s 46.8% second-serve hold rate this week (Tennis Abstract). The German player attempts to respond with his hitting power, however, the fact that he has lost the last five matches consecutively against Medvedev is certainly not in his favor.
For the lovers of the game: two 6’6” titans in a tactical fight under the Paris lights. For the gamblers: H2H trend is strongly in favor of Medvedev but Zverev’s home court defense can’t be underestimated. One of them goes into the SF; both are fighting for their legacy and the year-end glory.
Claim Welcome Bonus🇷🇺 Daniil Medvedev: Form and Statistics
Medvedev’s self-assurance is fuelled by a 9-7 H2H marginal victory over Zverev (ATP), with 5 consecutive wins, among which he is the only one that is not Zverev. The Russian ranked No. 13 is 36-22 YTD, 8-2 indoors 2025 (ATP).
Paris run: d. Munar 6-1,6-3; w/o Dimitrov; d. Sonego 3-6,7-6(5),6-4—saved 2 MPs.
Last 5 indoors: W-W-W-L-W (d. Sonego, w/o, d. Munar; l. Moutet 4-6,7-6,3-6; d. Thompson 6-4,6-3)(ATP).
Medvedev, 30 Oct post-R3 (ATP): "I'm playing well, climbing rankings. I will push more to go higher."
Insight X: @TrackerTennis (31 Oct): "Medvedev 9-1 last 10 H2H vs Zverev—mental lock."
By return depth Medvedev makes Zverev going far side thereby winning 43% of break points in the lifetime of the rivalry (ATP).
Prop: Under 23.5 games @ 1.851—last 3 H2H indoors averaged 22.3 games.
The hard-court king with more than 300 victories, Medvedev is looking at his Turin lifeline. Just one win away from serious contention.
🇩🇪 Alexander Zverev: Form and Statistics
28-13 on a hard-court the year to date (ATP), but 1-4 indoors against top-15 returners 2025 (Tennis Abstract). Zverev, No. 3, is 47-20 overall, 7-3 indoors. Paris: d. Carabelli 6-7,6-1,7-5; d. Davidovich Fokina 6-2,6-4. Last 5 indoors: W-W-L-W-L (d. DF, d. Carabelli; l. Sinner 3-6,7-6,4-6 Vienna F; d. Thompson; l. Rublev) (ATP).
Quote: “Surface is quite strange here,” Zverev, 29 Oct post-R2 (Eurosport).
X: @G9_Locks (30 Oct): “Zverev 0-5 vs Med last 5—mental midget mode.”
Serve holds at 89% this week, but Medvedev breaks 28% of return games in H2H (ATP).
Prop: Zverev +0.5 games @ 1.925—covers in 3 of last 5 vs Med.
Defending champ, Turin locked. One win from SF.
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Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Head-to-Head Statistics
H2H: Medvedev 9-7.
2024 AO SF: Zverev d. Medvedev 5-7,3-6,7-6,7-6,6-3 (52 games, 4 breaks)” (ATP). Medvedev has a 5-0 streak after 2023, and is 4-2 on indoor hard (ATP).
Micro stats: Zverev only gets 42% of second-serve points vs Medvedev (Tennis Abstract).
Surface: Slower Paris courts favoring the rally—Medvedev was perfect in Beijing.
Prop tease: Zverev +0.5 games @ 1.925—went beyond in 60% of H2H.
Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Betting Tips and Odds
- Medvedev ML @ 1.842 (1xbet) — H2H dominance (5-0 streak) + superior returns (31.6% first-serve pts won, Infosys ATP Stats) simply overpower Zverev in an indoor match.
- Under 23.5 games @ 1.851 — Last 3 H2H indoors were an average of 22.3 games; Medvedev's straight-sets trend is still valid (ATP).
- Medvedev over 8.5 aces @ 1.90 — He is able to achieve his 9.2 average indoors in 2025 while taking advantage of Zverev's 46.8% second-serve win rate (Tennis Abstract).
Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Match Prediction
Medvedev wins the match 54%.
Set 1: 6-4 - return of the serve and a forced break of the opponent’s side of the court (43% BP conversion in H2H, ATP).
Set 2: 6-4 - Zverev tries hard, but Medvedev’s 67% BP save rate (Tennis Abstract) keeps the ball in his court.
No third set. Upset probability: 46% (Zverev in straights - if serve hits 89% hold, possible; but H2H trend says no).
Final scoreline: 6-4, 6-4.
X insight: @vanshv2k (6 Oct): "Medvedev one of four with multiple 2025 wins over Zverev—chaos king."
Narrative: Medvedev keeps the streak alive, lights up the road to Turin. Zverev 0-6 in last six vs Russian.
Top 3 Picks:-
Medvedev ML @ 1.842 on 1xbet.com (Rating ⭐⭐ ⭐ ⭐)
Under 23.5 games @ 1.851 on Betway.com (Rating ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐)
Zverev +0.5 games @ 1.925 on Bet365.com (Rating ⭐⭐⭐⭐)
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