Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jessica Pegula: Prediction for the Match on October 09, 2025
The WTA Wuhan 2025 Round of 16 on October 9 features a showdown between the two players who have dominated the hard court the most, and it is set out to determine the quarterfinal and subsequent stages of this prestigious outdoor hard-court event. Meanwhile, No. 11 World Ekaterina Alexandrova holding a 41-20 season record which was crowned by her Linz title and Doha semifinal is going to compete against No. 6 Jessica Pegula whose 47-20 record is ornamented with three trophies among which Bad Homburg and Charleston are included. Alexandrova has kicked-off her competition at Wuhan by a 6-3, 6-2 thrashing of Victoria Mboko hence a three hard-court win streak, while Pegula has struggled to a 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(6) victory over Hailey Baptiste, saving two match points in a nearly three-hour match. Just as in the past, the 3-2 (2-0 hard-court) head to head for Alexandrova with a semifinal victory at Doha 2025 6-4, 7-5 can be seen as a complex story layering intrigue. Wuhan's quick tempo helps Alexandrova to unleash her offensive power (as per the WTA data she averages 4.6 aces per match), on the other hand, Pegula's world-class return (she ranks in the top-10 for return points won at 45%) is perfect for long rallies as it was during her US Open semifinal run. Twitter is on fire with people's arguments like @Probahis who claims that Alexandrova's "first-strike aggression" is just unbeatable while @WTA is arguing for Pegula saying that she has a "relentless tiebreak grit." The clash only points to the momentum Shift battle which is ahead of the WTA Finals race, where Alexandrova is aiming for a top-10 debut, and Pegula is confirming her elite status. Phone it in, gambling enthusiasts, these cues scream player prop and totals as undervalued markets. Who comes out on top in this tactical chess match under Chinese lights?
Claim Welcome Bonus🇷🇺 Ekaterina Alexandrova: form and statistics
World No. 11 Ekaterina Alexandrova is coming to Wuhan with a fantastic record of 41-20 in 2025, which means she has won 67% to mark her most consistent campaign ever. On hard courts, she has a record of 17-13, thus demonstrating her love of the surface and a career-high ranking that she has pushed further. Her earnings from prize money are more than $2.3 million, which is mainly due to her winning the title in Linz (defeating Samsonova in the final) and the runner-up positions in Seoul and Monterrey. Her advanced metrics reflect her domination as well: she is ranked within the top-15 in aces per match (4.6) and first-serve points won (72% according to WTA data) and at the same time, her flat and deep groundstrokes help her to score 28% winners from the baseline.
Alexa's last season drive has the power of a live wire. She started Wuhan with a very strong 6-3, 6-2 victory over Victoria Mboko where, amongst other stats, she made 5 aces, broke the opponent’s serve 3 out of 4 times and saved all three of the breaks conceded to her thus allowing herself to extend the hard-court winning streak to three matches. Prior to that, she advanced to the fourth round of Cincinnati (lost to Kalinskaya after wins over Sun and Joint) and achieved, in September, her career-high No. 11 ranking. She lost in the third round at the US Open (l. to Swiatek 6-3, 6-1), an outcome that caused her some pain but which soon after was followed by a Korea Open final (l. to Swiatek in a 1-6, 7-6, 7-5 match), thereby exhibiting the quality of her bounce-back. Moreover, in Doha, she prevailed against a Sabalenka to reach the semifinals and, therefore, she was able to demonstrate that she is solid when faced with the top seeds.
Alexandrova stands 5'9", plays right-handed and employs a two-handed backhand. She is a frst-strike attacker, and would generally be the one dictating the pace in the rally. As a rule, her serves go beyond 120 mph, and 75% of the points are over in less than five shots (according to Tennis Abstract). She also holds the top spot on the tour for the most break points converted on second serves, where she achieves 52%; in this context, Pegula, for instance, being the softer server is a perfect candidate for the second-serve win as she has 55% there. Nevertheless, her 3.7 double faults/match can get out of hand if there is a lot of pressure, as it has recently been shown by the fact that her unforced errors have also gone up (to 22 per match on average). Over time, she has been 7-3 in Wuhan main draws, quarterfinals, including last year.
🇺🇸 Jessica Pegula: form and statistics
World number six, Jessica Pegula, had a solid year in 2025 with a record of 47-20, which amounts to nearly 70% wins overall and serves as an excellent indicator of her performance consistency. She is predominantly a hard court player, where her 31-11 record is accompanied by three titles—Bad Homburg, Charleston, and Austin—thus, she has exceeded the $3.5 million mark in prize money. Pegula ranks in the top-five for the percentage of return points won (45%) and service games held (88%), thus establishing consistency coupled with the ability to play the decisive points. Her first-serve average of 81.9% is very much a factor in her eight quarterfinal appearances at majors, although with an ace rate of 2.4 per match, she is far from the powerful players.
In Wuhan's second-round match, Pegula exhibited her fighting spirit by narrowly defeating Hailey Baptiste 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(6) in a 2-hour 45-minute battle—she saved two match points and then won the tiebreak 8-6 with 42 winners. She started off her run with a 6-1, 4-1 retirement win over Emma Raducanu (dizziness). Obviously, it was hard for her to take the defeat by Noskova in the China Open semis (she even saved three match points), but she can rely on her semifinal appearance at the US Open (l. to Sabalenka) and the Charleston title (d. Alexandrova) to keep her spirits up. Moreover, her clay/grass record stands at 11-5, confirming that she is able to perform well on all surfaces.
The 5'7" player who uses both hands on her backhand and plays from the right side, is mostly a counter puncher, rehabilitation the opponent's shot probably by using slice and/or by hitting to the backcourt. Her forehand is responsible for 25% of winners, and she is a top-ten player for deep returns (she achieves 43.6% win rate over deep balls, according to Tennis Abstract). Pegula's comfortable low error count (18 unforced per match) becomes apparent in the long rallies, however, her more flat serve line of attack results in being targeted by aggressive players. She has historically been 5-3 in Wuhan, with her best two runs being quarters.
From the minority viewpoint of being an ITF player, Pegula who is now a Top-10 mainstay, grapple with the moment when she eventually triumphed over the vast majority of the Slam title holders in Guadalajara WTA 1000 in 2022 thereby dramatizing her ascent right alongside the perseverance her family's NFL personalities are known for. With her 2023 United Cup victory as the US captain, her leadership credentials grew as well. After she overcame Baptiste, in a tweet posted on X, she wrote, "Tough battle—onto the next," which was followed by WTA@ -mounted
More Tennis Predictions
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jessica Pegula Head-to-Head Statistics
Ekaterina Alexandrova has a 3-2 head-to-head lead over Jessica Pegula, with a perfect record of 2-0 on hard courts. Most recently, she defeated Pegula 6-4, 7-5 in the semifinals of Doha 2025. Their match in Adelaide 2024 was won by Pegula 7-5, 6-4, however, Alexandrova's upset in Doha changed the direction of the trend. An average of 21 games and 1.8 sets is the length of their matches, and 60% of those are decided by tiebreaks or very close margins (according to WTA data).
On hard courts, Alexandrova's serve is the one to watch (she averages 5 aces against Pegula), but Pegula's return is still effective as she wins 48% of the second-serve points against her. The speed in Wuhan is favorable to Alexandrova's flat shots, however, Pegula's rally extension (4.8 shots per point) indicates a long point player. Another very close battle is expected with Alexandrova's firepower versus Pegula's calm.
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jessica Pegula Betting Tips and Odds
- Over 21.5 Total Games: The five matches of these players had an average of 22 games, with four going over 21.5; in accordance with WTA stats, Alexandrova's potent-ace style is met by Pegula's rally endurance.
- Both Players to Win a Set: This happened in three of five confrontations, notably Adelaide 2024; Pegula's 75% set-win rate in defeats makes her always competitive.
- Alexandrova Under 4.5 Aces: Even though she was serving, Pegula's deep returns only allowed 3 aces in Doha; Wuhan's situation is not very conducive for a bomb sever.
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jessica Pegula Match Prediction
It might not take long for Alexandrova's violent thundering serve and flat winners to rattle the arena, just as it was in her Doha demolition. However, Pegula's surgical returns—winning 45% of points—will keep probing second serves, and as a result, attacks will force errors in rallies that average 4.5 shots. In their Doha 2025 semifinal (Alexandrova's 6-4, 7-5 win), it was shown that Pegula's backhand is a bit shaky when it is hit with depth, but her grit in the US Open semis (upsets over top seeds) suggests that she has developed and grown over time. There is a split of 55% for Pegula according to the X polls (@atrtennis ), with most people voting for her and commenting "inscrutable magic" in tiebreaks. It is not improbable that Alexandrova's 3.7 double faults will catch her in set two, thus enabling Pegula to be the one who serves at 81.9% first-serve rate and stabilizes. The calmness of Pegula in the last games of the match (80% win rate) can help to figure out the final score as 6-4, 4-6, 6-3. This will see her advance to the next round among the drama of Wuhan's humidity.
Below are my top 3 bets for this match:
Our main prediction: Jessica Pegula win @ 1.72 odds on on 1xbet
Our betting tip for the match: Jessica Pegula win @ 1.75 odds on Betway
Our final betting tip for the match: Jessica Pegula win @ 1.70 odds on Bet365
Other predictions
