Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Lorenzo Musetti: Prediction for the Match on October 08, 2025
The Shanghai Masters Round of 16 is set for an exciting clash as the two top-10 players play in the humid conditions of the Asian swing to get the best possible condition for the coming days. Aubert-Aliassime, after his straight-sets victories over Alejandro Tabilo (6-3, 6-3) and Jesper de Jong (6-4, 7-5), is looking at his second ATP Finals appearance, 630 points behind Musetti, in the race.
A number of fan discussions point out his serving dominance, with several posts highlighting his "unbreakable" service performance after the US Open semi-finals. Musetti, coming through winning with Francisco Comesana (6-4, 6-0) and Luciano Darderi (7-5, 7-6(1)), has decided the most Masters 1000 encounters this year, with 19 wins only one less than Alcaraz.
As the set record (9-9) is even for their rivalry, it makes the duel all the more thrilling at Shanghai with their medium-slow hard court favorites baseline variety. The fans are excited and carefully following Musetti's recent wins in their direct confrontations, thus hinting at a possible upset. On the other hand, the bettors can take advantage of Musetti's excellent break-point conversion to make safe bets.
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Felix Auger-Aliassime, ranked No. 13, gets to the Shanghai Round of 16 with a record of 35-20 overall in 2025, of which 22-9 on hard courts. In fact, it is here that the Canadian has not made a mistake. After breaking Tabilo three times on 60% conversion, he beat him 6-3, 6-3 in the second round and after de Jong he won 6-4, 7-5, not allowing the opponent to break at all. This is his best Shanghai escape since 2019, after having been at the US Open semifinals and after a sequence of 10 wins out of 12 matches from August on (he lost twice, both times against Sinner).
On average, Auger-Aliassime gets 9.76 aces per match on his serve and 50.62% of the points on his second serve. Furthermore, he saves 66.54% of the break points. This makes the serve very difficult for the opponent, especially under the humid conditions that prevail in the Shanghai area. In addition, he breaks opponents 1.96 times per match on hard and his strategy is to exhaust the opponent with long rallies, but he uses flat strokes to probe weaknesses. After the match against de Jong, his words were: "I felt physically strong". Fans all over the world seem to agree as they call him "FAA unstoppable" during his Turin push.
From a tactical point of view, Auger-Aliassime's power from the baseline might be the reason that Musetti's single-handed backhand will in fact crumble as he has won 82% of his recent hard court matches in straight sets against players of a similar style. Moreover, his transition from losing eighth to winning multiple titles is a great sign of mental toughness, although it also means he is using h2h (history of head-to-head matches) as leverage against his current record (3-4 vs. Musetti). The media is very positive about this late-season boost, saying that Shanghai is very important to get to 250 wins in career. Reactions emphasize his strength in tiebreaks which makes him dangerous despite the difference in the ranking.
🇮🇹 Lorenzo Musetti: form and statistics
The 9th ranked Lorenzo Musetti is charging into the Shanghai Round of 16 with a 37-15 record to his name from 2025. 18-10 on hard court is the record that really stands out with his stylish one-handed game. The Italian not only thoroughly dismantled Comesana 6-4, 6-0 in the second round but also managed to pull off the win against Darderi 7-5, 7-6(1) in a very tight match where he was able to convert just 33.6% of break points.
Going by his season, the young Italian has to be remembered for the Monte-Carlo and Chengdu finals, and also the 19 Masters 1000 wins streak he amassed just behind Alcaraz. He is serving 3.19 aces per match on average and is winning 45.06% of the points when he is on his second serve but it is under pressure that he is at his best (57.83% of break points saved) and he is getting broken 2.74 times per match on hard court. His slices and net placements are offensive tools that are unsettling opponents’ rhythm, as evidenced by 93% of elite-level matches where he has managed to have at least one break of serve.
Right now, this is his best Shanghai result after he only made it out of the second round in 2024. After beating Darderi, he took to X to console Sinner's fans and thus, reviving the Italian No. 2’s Davis Cup scare. Musetti’s constant changes of the pace and angles—use of drop shots and one-handed backhand—might be the reason for his opponent’s mistakes during long rallies when combined with his 4-3 head-to-head and the win in Miami 4-6, 6-2, 6-3.
His transformation from World No. 1 junior to a member of the top 10 with the addition of a bronze medal at the 2024 Olympics makes him a very tough competitor. The public calls him "artistic genius" with Shanghai making him even more hopeful for the Finals. The media says that he has the advantage of a tactical style on slower hard courts but power mismatches are always a risk.
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Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Lorenzo Musetti Head-to-Head Statistics
Musetti has a 4-3 overall record against Auger-Aliassime and they last met at the 2025 Miami where Musetti won 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 on a hard court. Their head to head matches are quite balanced with 9-9 sets total which often result in three-setters lasting less than 2.5 hours. The medium pace of Shanghai is more suitable to Musetti's style of play which is more varied than that of Auger-Aliassime who tends to use his power, however, the Canadian's strong serve might be able to go to the tiebreak. Another close encounter will probably be the case, with the last Musetti's win giving us the possibility of a surprising upset.
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Lorenzo Musetti Betting Tips and Odds
- Game Totals Under 23.5 Games: Musetti's matches are often quite short on the hard court, with 70% of them going under this line in 2025, through efficient breaking of serve.
- Musetti to Win 2-0 Sets: He mastered the exploitation of the one-handed backhand weakness of the opponents with which he won on hard court this year, thus he grabbed straight sets in 75% of the hard wins.
- Musetti -3.5 Games Handicap: The typical difference in games is more than 4 on hard, supported by a break conversion rate of 33.6%.
- Under 2.5 Sets: 80% of their encounter are h2h remains under this limit, therefore, Auger-Aliassime has very limited comeback possibilities.
- Musetti Over 7.5 Games Won in First Set: He is very aggressive at the beginning of the match and thus he gets 70%+ first-set games against the players characterized by power hitting.
- Auger-Aliassime Over 2.5 Double Faults: He is usually very nervous and under the pressure of the hard, therefore around 3 per match is his double fault count.
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Lorenzo Musetti Match Predictions
It is expected that Musetti's tactical skill and h2h advantage (4-3) will be able to narrowly surpass the power of Auger-Aliassime on Shanghai's outdoor hard, thus reiterating his victory in Miami. By 33.6% break conversion exploiting the opponent's 25.69% break holding rate, and by disrupting serves (Auger-Aliassime 50.62% second-serve wins) you should see long exchanges where the Italian's one-handed backhand is favored. Polls give a slight edge to Musetti for his 19 Masters wins. With a victory in three sets, Musetti would qualify for Turin, shutting out FAA.
Below are my top 3 bets for this match:
Our main prediction: Musetti to Win @ 1.771 odds on 1xbet
Our betting tip for the match: Musetti to Win @ 1.80 odds on Betway
Our final betting tip for the match: Musetti to Win @ 178 odds on Bet365
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