Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot: Prediction for the Match on October 09, 2025
The 2025 Rolex Shanghai Masters quarterfinals are set to witness an electrifying match: Holger Rune, the 11th-ranked player globally, against qualifier Valentin Vacherot. Rune boasts a 34-20 record for the year (21-11 hard) and includes a 500 Barcelona title win over Alcaraz in his achievements. By contrast, his Shanghai path—victories against Baez, Humbert, and Mpetshi Perricard (6-4, 6-7(7), 6-3)—has led him to a record of 11 consecutive quarterfinals at the Masters.
Vacherot has a 41-22 record overall (15-9 hard) and he has just stunned Djere, Bublik, Machac, and Griekspoor (4-6, 7-6(1), 6-4), climbing 74 ranking spots. The letter X is buzzing with #VacherotMagic, and the fans are saying that he showed "grit" during the match against Griekspoor. Rune’s 65% hard-court win rate (70-51) is slightly better than Vacherot’s (71% 124-49), but the qualifier’s momentum is what bettors are most interested in.
The 60% quarterfinals over-22.5-game trend in Shanghai is perfect for those who want to place safe bets.
Claim Welcome Bonus🇩🇰 Holger Rune: form and statistics
Holger Rune, who is ranked No. 11, has a record of 34-20 for the year and 21-11 on hard courts and, according to the ATP, is 2025 highlights feature a 500 Barcelona title, beating Alcaraz 7-6(6), 6-2, for a Top-10 return. Rune thrashed Baez (6-3, 6-2), Humbert (6-4, 6-4), and Mpetshi Perricard (6-4, 6-7(7), 6-3) in Shanghai, while hitting 36 winners to 17 aces made by the latter. “I kept my focus,” he told ATP after winning 81% of his first-serve points. His style of play incorporates a semi-western forehand (25% winners) and top-10 returns (43% second-serve points), and he is good at 5.2-shot rallies.
X's #RuneRising is a subject of discussion among the fans, with them referring to his victory over Perricard as "Viking mode." The comparison made here is to his 2022 Paris Masters run (five Top-10 wins). Rune’s 42% break-point conversion and 88% hold rate are against Vacherot’s 84% first-serve holds. Though Vacherot’s speed is a challenge for him, Rune’s 24% first-serve break rate and supreme confidence in tough matches give him the upper hand tactically. You can be sure that he will take the initiative from the baseline and thus, get the opportunity to break Vacherot’s serve by the backhand side.
🇲🇨 Valentin Vacherot: form and statistics
With a 41-22 season record (15-9 hard) and playing at around a 130th level, Valentin Vacherot is a real force to be reckoned with at the Shanghai ATP Masters 1000. He came out with an upset in Monte Carlo over Struff and reached the finals in the Challenger in his 2025 season. Vacherot's wins in the qualifications over Basavareddy (6-7(7), 6-4, 6-2) and Draxl (4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4) set the stage for his upsets in the main draw: Djere (6-3, 6-4), Bublik (3-6, 6-3, 6-4), Machac (6-0, 3-1 ret.), and Griekspoor (4-6, 7-6(1), 6-4).
In the match against Griekspoor, he went for 45 winners while also committing 28 errors. "Everything is made of this," said the Frenchman, visibly moved. He is a 6'4" and one-dimensional player at the moment who achieves 10 aces per match and 84% of the points with the first serve, yet, he only has 45% of points won on the second serve.
According to Vacherot's #VacherotMagic, he is the next big thing for Monaco. His forehand (30% winners) and 75% net success counter Rune’s heavy positioning from the back. However, Rune returns 43% of the second serves and, thus, keeps Vacherot busy with 28 errors. Moreover, Rune's 5.2-shot rallies are harder for Vacherot in terms of consistency. Vacherot's serve can definitely be a factor in a set, but on the other hand, there is no doubt about the strength of Rue's shots reaching the back of the court.
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Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot Head-to-Head Statistics
According to ATP records, Holger Rune and Valentin Vacherot have never met before, making their match in Shanghai a completely new tactical battle on fast hard courts. Rune has a 65% win rate on hard courts (70-51 lifetime, 21-11 in 2025), while Vacherot has a 71% win rate (124-49 career, 15-9 this year).
Rune’s 42% break-point conversion and 43% second-serve returns aim at Vacherot’s 82% service hold and 45% second-serve points. The fast surface in Shanghai helps Rune’s defensive returns, but Vacherot’s 10 aces per match (60% of wins with tiebreaks) are causing concern for a possible upset.
Expect the baseline rallies to average 22-25 games, with Rune’s 88% service games held going up against Vacherot’s 38% break-point conversions. Their personalities—Rune’s rally extension versus Vacherot’s 4.5-shot power—indicate a three-setter. Rune’s slight advantage is his experience in 11 Masters quarterfinals, however, Vacherot’s fearless approach at the net could make it a very close fight, which will probably come down to tiebreak execution.
Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot Betting Tips and Odds
- Over 22.5 Games: Vacherot’s matches average 24; Rune’s quarterfinals hit 70% overs.
- Both to Win a Set: Vacherot took sets in all main-draw wins; Rune drops one in 60% three-setters.
- Rune Over 12.5 Games Won: Averaged 13.2 in Shanghai, holding 100% vs. Perricard.
- Vacherot Under 3.5 Double Faults: Averaged 2.8 with 56% first-serve accuracy.
- Tie-Break Played: In 40% of Vacherot’s wins, 50% of Rune’s three-setters.
Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot Match Prediction
The humid courts of Shanghai bore witness to a Rune-Vacherot quarterfinal match that went down to the wire, a battle between calm composure of a top-tier player and fiery spirit of a qualifier. Rune’s 42% return points won helped him take advantage of Vacherot’s 45% second-serve rate, leading to errors in 5.2-shot rallies. He was the main reason for the success of the 88% hold rate and 80% decider wins. Vacherot’s 10 aces and 75% net success, which were factors in his win against Griekspoor, might have been the reasons for stealing a set. Various polls show that Rune is the favorite (65%), and #VikingVsMonaco is a popular hashtag. Rune’s 11th Masters quarterfinal is a sign of his authority over the match, even though he raised the issue of the heat after the match. You can be sure that Rune will win in three sets and the 2025 season will be different because of it.
Below are my top 3 bets for this match:
Our main prediction: Rune -2.5 Games @ 1.6 odds on 1xbet
Our betting tip for the match: Over 21.5 Games @ 1.6 odds on Betway
Our final betting tip for the match: Rune -3.5 Games @ 2.006 odds on Bet365
Other predictions
