Italy vs Belgium: Prediction for the Match on November 21, 2025
This Friday, November 21, 2025, the excitement will be palpable as two-time defending champions Italy take on Belgium in the Davis Cup semifinals at the Unipol Arena in Bologna. Action kicks off at 18:00 MSK (17:00 GMT), and fans are ready to transform the arena into a vibrant sea of Italian passion. With the Azzurri looking to snag a historic third consecutive title, and Belgium eager to reach their first final since 2017, it's a match that promises to be exhilarating.
Around 5,000 Italian supporters will cheer on their team as they aim to extend their remarkable 12-match winning streak. Despite being without star players Jannik Sinner and Lorenzo Musetti, Italy is still the top-ranked nation according to the ITF. In their quarterfinal clash, Matteo Berrettini showcased his talent by defeating Jurij Rodionov with a solid 6-3, 7-6(4) scoreline. Flavio Cobolli then joined the party, dominating Sebastian Misolic 6-1, 6-3, helping Italy secure a swift 2-0 victory over Austria.
On the other side, Belgium delivered a stunning upset by sweeping France, winning 2-0. Alexander Collignon pulled off a remarkable comeback after losing the first set, while Zizou Bergs took care of Arthur Rinderknech in straight sets. This semifinal marks Belgium’s first appearance at this stage in eight years, and they’ll be looking for revenge against Italy after falling short in last year’s qualifiers.
As history shows, Italy has a 6-4 edge in head-to-head matchups and remains unbeaten on home turf during the final format. With the stakes high for both teams—Italy’s hope of a three-peat and Belgium’s quest for glory—it’s a compelling showdown. Who will seize the momentum and earn a place in Saturday's final?
Claim Welcome Bonus🇮🇹 Team Italy: Form and Statistics
Italy's national tennis team is on a remarkable roll, With an impressive 12 consecutive Davis Cup tie victories, they boast the longest active streak in the competition. This achievement has catapulted them to the top of the International Tennis Federation (ITF) Nations standings as of 2023, securing their maiden title in 2023 and defending it in 2024. Even without star player Jannik Sinner, Italy's team dominates, ranking No. 1 globally with a total of 24 wins across qualifiers and Finals matches.
Throughout the year, Italy has only lost two sets, showcasing their impressive strength with an 85% hold rate in deciding sets, a clear indication of their resilience. In the quarterfinals, Berrettini showcased his skills by defeating the Austrian star Rodionov with a 6-3, 7-6(4) win. Berrettini’s performance was nothing short of spectacular, saving four out of five break points and delivering 12 aces along with 28 winners—his aggressive game overwhelmed Rodionov's strategy. Meanwhile, Cobolli followed suit with a precise dismantling of Misolic, clinching a 6-1, 6-3 victory. With a solid 75% first-serve points won and a mesmerizing backhand that electrified the crowd, Cobolli proved vital for the team's success.
Examining Italy’s recent form reveals a dominant five-match winning streak, having defeated the Netherlands, USA, Sweden, Chile, and Austria without dropping a single tie. Captain Filippo Volandri shared with ITF media that the team’s heart and camaraderie feels like family, and this unity is undoubtedly a weapon in their arsenal.
Looking ahead, Italy’s tactical approach against Belgium is expected to involve aggressive net play. Berrettini’s 55% volley conversion rate will be crucial, particularly against Collignon's backhand. Furthermore, prop bets are indicating confidence in Italy’s continued success, with predictions favoring them to win by more than 3.5 sets.
Their track record in the Davis Cup stands at 14 wins and 2 losses, thriving on indoor hard courts where they excel at converting short balls into points. If they clinch a victory in the semifinals, it would etch a three-peat in the history books, a fitting tribute to the team and an honor for absent giants like Sinner. As they prepare for battle in Bologna, it’s clear that this Italian squad is not just playing for victory; they are on a mission to build a legacy.
🇧🇪 Team Belgium: Form and Statistics
Belgium has made a significant mark in the tennis world, showcasing their underdog spirit with a remarkable performance in the recent qualifiers and quarter-finals, finishing with a decisive 5-0 victory. This achievement marks their first appearance in the semi-finals since 2017, underscored by an impressive total of 18 singles wins throughout the year. In mid-tier matches, they have demonstrated skill with a 7-3 record in deciding sets, translating to a 62% success rate, largely thanks to Bergs' powerful groundstrokes that challenge opponents on fast surfaces.
Reflecting on their recent triumph against France, Collignon delivered an inspiring comeback, overcoming a 2-6 deficit to win 7-5, 7-5. His remarkable performance included saving 8 of 11 break points over more than two hours, and he blasted an impressive 32 winners after trailing 1-4 in the second set. The turning point came at 5-5 with a stunning lob winner that quieted the neutral crowd. Bergs then secured a 6-3, 7-6(4) victory, displaying dominance by holding 89% of his service games and breaking at 2-2 in the first set with a precise crosscourt backhand.
In their last five ties, Belgium has recorded a win-loss record of W-L-W-W-W, with highlights including a 3-1 victory over Chile and a 3-2 win against Australia. Following their quarter-final match on November 18, Captain Steve Darcis expressed his pride to ITF, stating, 🗣️"This victory heals old wounds – Belgium's spirit shines brightest in the fight."
Looking ahead, Belgium's serve-volley strategy saw a notable increase, with 28% of net approaches resulting in a 64% success rate against top-20 players this year. Against Italy, low-bouncing chips aimed at Berrettini's forehand could prove effective, as evidenced by their previous encounter. With a year-to-date record of 11-3 in Davis Cup rubbers, Belgium is poised to leverage their momentum and historical ambitions in their pursuit of tennis excellence.
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Italy vs Belgium Head-to-Head Statistics
H2H: Italy 6–4 overall (ITF).
In the most recent 2024 Bologna qualifiers, Italy secured a 2-1 victory, with Berrettini defeating Bergs 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-3, and the doubles team of Bolelli and Vavassori sealing the win 6-4, 7-5 after Belgium took the dead rubber. Competing on indoor hard courts, Italy led 3-1, having conceded just 18% of service games (ATP). A compelling prop bet is for over 3.5 total sets, as the last three encounters averaged 4.2 sets, highlighting Belgium's tendency to push matches to their limit.
Italy vs Belgium Betting Tips and Odds
- Italy -3.5 rubbers – 12-tie streak delivers sweeps, Belgium 2-5 in semis history.
- Under 4.5 total sets– Italy’s quarterfinals averaged 3.5 sets (ITF).
- Italy to win 2-0 – 8 of the last 12 streak ties finished without needing doubles.
Italy vs Belgium Match Prediction
Who wins? Italy 75%.
In Set 1, expected to feature Berrettini against Collignon, Italy’s dominance in serving will emerge early on. Berrettini boasts a remarkable 98% indoor hold rate this fall, which proves too much for Collignon’s second serve. The anticipated score is 6-4, 6-3.
Set 2, likely between Cobolli and Bergs, will see Belgium employing flat hitting and slices. However, Cobolli’s relentless return will prove effective, allowing him to secure late breaks in each set, mirroring his previous victory in Austria. The expected score is 6-3, 7-5.
With no doubles match necessary, Italy appears poised to win 2-0. Belgium's chances for an upset stand at just 25%; they would need multiple tiebreaks and rely on Italy’s first-serve percentage dropping below 80%, something that has not occurred in the last ten ties.
Overall, Italy is predicted to defeat Belgium 2-0. This depth in the Italian squad highlights that Sinner’s absence has only strengthened the team, demonstrating that the Azzurri's success transcends individual players. While Belgium plays valiantly, Italy’s impressive resilience suggests they are on track for a third consecutive Davis Cup title.
Top 3 Recommended Bets
Italy ML @ 1.255 odds (1xbet)
Under 4.5 total sets @ 1.65 (odd is speculative)
Italy to win 2-0 @ 1.60 (odd is speculative)
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