Italy vs Spain: Prediction for the Match on November 23, 2025
Italy’s flawless 2-0 sweeps in quarterfinals and semis this week—can Spain’s doubles duo breach the Azzurri fortress? Home squad surges with three-peat destiny on the line. #DavisCupFinals
Who wins Italy vs Spain? Italy 80% (implied odds: -400).
Italy has won their last 13 Davis Cup ties straight (Davis Cup official). Spain counters with three straight H2H victories, but their singles depth is tested after a gritty 2-1 semi over Germany.
Moneyline available now @ 1.255 (1xbet).
The atmosphere at the SuperTennis Arena in Bologna is charged this afternoon as two-time defending champions Italy face Spain in the 2025 Davis Cup Final. This is their 14th meeting overall and the first time these teams contest the title. Italy comes into this match after a dominant 2-0 semifinal victory over Belgium on Friday. Matteo Berrettini won convincingly against Collignon, 6-3, 6-4, while Cobolli triumphed in a thrilling 32-point tiebreak against Bergs, concluding with scores of 6-3, 6-7(5), 7-6(15). This victory marked Italy's 13th consecutive tie win, making them the first nation since Australia (1999-2001) to reach three consecutive finals.
Spain secured their spot by narrowly defeating Germany 2-1 yesterday, with Pablo Carreño Busta overcoming Struff 6-4, 7-6(6) and Granollers/Martínez clinching the doubles match. With key players like Sinner, Musetti, and Alcaraz absent, this final serves as a testament to team depth on fast indoor hard courts. Italy is favored at 1.255 odds, approximately translating to an 80% win probability, bolstered by strong home support and an unbeaten doubles team (Bolelli/Vavassori). The stakes are high: a historic three-peat for Italy, their fourth Salad Bowl overall, and a chance for Spain to claim a record-equalling seventh title, showcasing the resilience of their program. In this best-of-three contest, national pride is on full display.
Claim Welcome Bonus🇮🇹 Team Italy: Form and Statistics
Captain Filippo Volandri has assembled a formidable team that combines strength and passion. Leading the singles lineup are Matteo Berrettini and Flavio Cobolli, supported by the reliable doubles pairing of Simone Bolelli and Andrea Vavassori. Their performance in the 2025 Final 8 has been impressive, with decisive victories of 2-0 against both Austria and Belgium. The squad has an exceptional 64% conversion rate on break points while achieving a remarkable 91% success in holding serve throughout the week (Davis Cup). Their current 13-tie winning streak is the longest in the competition, showcasing Italy's effective adaptation to the new format and the speedy Bologna courts. Notably, Bolelli and Vavassori remain undefeated in Davis Cup play this year, winning all three matches and 92% of their service games in best-of-three doubles. Strategically, Italy will target second serves in singles and rely on their doubles team to counter any threats posed by Spain. The stakes are high: securing a third consecutive title would solidify this team as Italy's golden generation and bring home silverware for the first time since 1976.
🇪🇸 Team Spain: Form and Statistics
David Ferrer's team embodies determination over flair. Pablo Carreño Busta and Jaume Munar shoulder the singles responsibility, while Marcel Granollers and Pedro Martínez, who were vital in yesterday's semi-finals, offer reliable doubles support. Spain has triumphed in three pivotal doubles matches in 2025 and boasts a 4-1 record on hard courts this season. Their recent head-to-head advantage over Italy—marked by three consecutive victories—bolsters their confidence. However, without Alcaraz, their singles strength is somewhat diminished. For Spain to secure victory, they must engage in lengthy rallies, safeguard their second serves, and hope the contest reaches the doubles decider, where Granollers and Martínez can provide a significant competitive edge.
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Italy vs Spain Head-to-Head Statistics
H2H: Italy 7–6 Spain overall (Davis Cup). Spain has triumphed in their last three encounters, including a 4-1 victory in 2006. However, Italy turned the tables with a 2-1 win on indoor hard courts during the 2018 qualifiers. Since the year 2000, Spain leads 3-2 on hard courts, with 60% of those ties being determined in a live doubles rubber, according to Davis Cup and Tennis Abstract records.
Italy vs Spain Betting Tips and Odds
- Italy ML @ 1.255 (1xbet) – Home form, doubles depth and 13-tie streak simply outweighs Spain’s absences.
- Under 2.5 total sets – Italy have needed just 4 rubbers total across their two ties this week.
- Italy -1.5 sets – Straight-sets singles sweep is the most likely route.
Italy vs Spain Match Prediction
Italy has an 80% chance of success in the matchup against Spain.
In the first set, the Italians of (Berrettini or Cobolli) will apply consistent baseline pressure, resulting in a break in each set, giving Italy a 1-0 lead.
In the second set, although Spain will fight valiantly, Italy's strong return game will secure another break in the second set, leading to a 2-0 victory.
No doubles match is necessary, as the probability of an upset is only 20%. Spain would need to win both singles matches to force a decisive encounter, which they have not achieved against a top-8 nation in the past two years.
The final score is Italy 2-0
Top 3 Recommended Bets
Italy ML @ 1.255 odds
Under 2.5 sets @ 2.10 (odd is speculative)
Italy -1.5 rubbers @ 1.70 (odd is speculative)
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