We’re heading into Round 2 of the Monte Carlo Masters, and here’s a matchup that might fly under the radar but has real upset potential. Jack Draper, currently sitting at ATP No. 6, is enjoying a solid season overall, but comes off a disappointing loss in Miami. Across the net? Marcos Giron, the gritty American who just took down Shapovalov in straight sets.
Clay isn’t either player’s favorite surface, but both have shown flashes. Draper leads the head-to-head 2-0, but those wins came on faster courts, and Giron looked sharp in his Monte Carlo opener.
This one’s shaping up to be tighter than the rankings suggest. The models are giving us interesting value on serve stats, total games, and a sneaky player prop that could make the difference. Let’s dig into each player’s form, then crunch the numbers and deliver our top 3 safest betting tips.
Claim Welcome BonusJack Draper (Great Britain, ATP 6)
Form: WWWWL
Last Match: 0-2 loss vs Jakub Mensik – Miami R64 (7-6, 7-6)
Draper’s raw power and serve-heavy game make him a threat on any surface, and his climb into the ATP Top 10 hasn’t been a fluke. Despite a loss in Miami, his numbers weren’t poor—12 aces, zero break points faced, and a solid first serve percentage. He just couldn’t make inroads on Mensik’s serve and blinked twice in tiebreaks.
That said, clay remains a bit of an adjustment zone for the Brit. His movement’s improved, but he still doesn’t generate the kind of loopy topspin shots that thrive on red dirt. Where he can still shine, though, is on the serve and first-strike tennis—especially if the conditions stay dry and fast.
His past wins over Giron show he can handle the American’s baseline grind, but this surface might level things out a bit more than previous meetings. Still, with confidence high and that serve dialed in, Draper enters as the rightful favorite—he just needs to convert break points more effectively this time around.
Marcos Giron (USA, ATP 45)
Form: WWLLW
Last Match: 2-0 win vs Denis Shapovalov – Monte Carlo R64 (6-3, 7-6)
Marcos Giron thrives on effort and consistency rather than flash, and in his Monte Carlo opener, he showcased exactly that. His win over Shapovalov wasn’t jaw-dropping, but it was clinical, especially in the key moments. Zero double faults and a strong break-point save percentage tell the story of a player who knows how to grind it out.
On clay, that kind of discipline matters. Giron isn’t going to blast opponents off the court, but he will keep balls deep, redirect pace, and force you to play the extra shot—perfect conditions for springing an upset if Draper’s timing is even slightly off.
His serve return game isn’t elite (only 25% of first serves returned won), but he makes up for it with clever positioning and shot tolerance. If he can drag Draper into long rallies and extend the match, fitness and nerves could become a factor.
Giron has never beaten Draper, but he’s close. And with the pressure on the higher seed, the American might just be in position to catch him on a clay slip-up.
Expert Betting Tips
Over 20.5 Total Games @ 1.65 Odds
• Their last match hit 29 games. Even on clay, Draper’s serve and Giron’s return stats point to a tight battle—maybe even a tiebreak.
Marcos Giron +4.5 Games Handicap @ 1.72 Odds
• He’s covered this line in both prior meetings. The model sees value here, especially with Draper less dominant on clay.
First Set Over 9.5 Games @ 1.83 Odds
• Both players serve well early. The numbers suggest this goes deep into the first set—possibly another 7-5 or 7-6.
Final Verdict?
Draper likely squeezes through, but don’t expect a straight-sets cruise. Our analysis leans toward a tight 3-set win for the Brit, with Giron covering the spread and total games pushing over.
Other predictions
