We’re back on the red dirt, and Monte Carlo is already cooking up some spicy matchups. One of the more intriguing ones? Jordan Thompson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas—a clash between a grinder and a clay-court wizard.
Tsitsipas, the world No. 8, hasn’t had the steadiest season so far, but this is his turf. The slow courts suit his heavy topspin and patient point-building style. Meanwhile, Thompson, ranked 35th, is on a bit of a roll and just grabbed a solid straight-sets win in the first round.
On paper, this one looks like Tsitsipas’s to lose. But tennis, especially on clay, has a funny way of leveling the playing field. We’ll break down both players’ form, go through their head-to-head record, and plug it all into our betting model to give you 3 data-backed tips you can actually use.
Let’s get into it.
Claim Welcome BonusJordan Thompson – The Gritty Underdog
ATP Ranking: 35
Form: WWLLW
Last Match: Def. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (6-4, 6-3)
Jordan Thompson isn’t flashy. He’s not going to blow you off the court with 20 aces or a 140mph serve. But what he will do is dig deep, stay patient, and force you to earn every point. That’s exactly what he did in his opening round win over Mpetshi Perricard—just a clean, controlled performance.
Stat breakdown:
1 ace, 1 double fault
59% first serve
43% first serve return points won
3/3 on break points converted
0% break points saved (he wasn’t tested much)
That said, his game isn’t tailor-made for clay. Thompson prefers quicker surfaces where he can flatten out shots and rush opponents. On clay, longer rallies expose his limitations, especially against top-tier guys who live for those grindy exchanges—guys like Tsitsipas.
Still, form is form. Two wins in his last three, and a touch of momentum, could make things interesting… for a while.
Stefanos Tsitsipas – The Clay Court Specialist
ATP Ranking: 8
Form: WWLWL
Last Match: Lost to Sebastian Korda (7-6, 6-3) – Miami, R32
Let’s be honest—Tsitsipas hasn't looked invincible this season. That loss to Korda in Miami wasn’t pretty, especially considering he didn’t really put up much resistance in the second set. But here’s the thing: this isn’t Miami. This is Monte Carlo.
Tsitsipas loves this place. He won the title in 2021 and usually shows up with serious intent.
Stat check from Miami:
5 aces, 1 double fault
60% first serve
0% break points saved
31% first serve return points won
2 break points converted
On hard courts, those numbers look shaky. But on clay, he gets more time to wind up that forehand, and his movement becomes a weapon. He’s built for this surface—both physically and tactically. The slower conditions let him set the tone and play on his terms, which is bad news for someone like Thompson.
Unless Stef has an off day, he should take control early and keep Thompson under pressure throughout.
Head to Head – Tsitsipas Leads 3-1
These two have met four times before, and Stefanos leads the series 3 wins to 1. The most recent was in the 2024 Australian Open, where Tsitsipas came through a tricky 4-setter: 6-4, 6-7, 2-6, 6-7.
That match showed Thompson’s resilience—he doesn’t quit. But Tsitsipas just had more in the tank, especially when it counted. That was on a hard court, though. This time, the clay should give Tsitsipas even more of an edge.
Their only meeting that went Thompson’s way came in a smaller event, and Stef has clearly evolved since then. With this being their first-ever clay matchup, it’s a fresh chapter—and one Tsitsipas should control from the baseline.
Expert Betting Tips
Tsitsipas to Win 2-0 @ 1.70 Odds on 1xbet
• Solid value here. Stef should dominate longer rallies and punish second serves.
Under 20.5 Total Games @ 1.93 Odds on Betway
• If Tsitsipas starts hot, this could be over quickly.
So… Any Chance of an Upset?
Honestly? Not much. Thompson’s got heart and hustle, but Stef’s just too polished on clay. That doesn’t mean it’ll be a complete blowout—but unless Tsitsipas totally drops the ball, he should take care of business.
Still, if you’re looking to chase value, live betting could be the play—especially if the first couple games are tight. But for straight-up picks? Stick with Stef.
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