Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo: Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds for the Tennis match - 23.09.2025
On 23 September 2025, the final of the Chengdu Open (ATP 250) is going to challenge the number one seed Lorenzo Musetti with Chilean qualifier Alejandro Tabilo. After a commanding semi, Musetti (World No. 9) looked to be the pick of the bunch; however, Tabilo (world No. 112) has struck with power and speed from the qualifying rounds right into the final. This is a traditional match-vs.-momentum battle — bettors should keep their eyes on serve percentages, first serve points won and tiebreak pressure.
Claim Welcome Bonus🇮🇹 Lorenzo Musetti
World No.9, Lorenzo Musetti has been showing great form on the hard court and is set to play the final in Chengdu. The top seed tore through the semifinals against Alexander Shevchenko 6-3, 6-1 - a performance that saw him winning 92% of his first serve points and not giving away a break point. Musetti is on the hunt for his third ATP Tour title of the year, and his combination of groundstroke variety and a consistently better serve have shortened many of his service games this week. We can anticipate that his good form will prompt him to dominate the points from the serve and combine heavy, angled forehands to clear the court. Consequently, he would be trying to get the rally underway and putting Tabilo in a position to make inaccurate returns.
🇨🇱 Alejandro Tabilo
Alejandro Tabilo comes as a qualifier and the tournament's surprise package. Just outside the top 100 this month, Tabilo has been just outstanding with his serve in Chengdu - he demolished Brandon Nakashima 6-4, 7-6(0) in the semi-finals, hitting 11 aces and also not allowing his opponent to break his serve in that match. His lefty spin, the desire to burst through on short balls and his recent qualifying run combine to give him match toughness and confidence on big points (especially tiebreaks). The reservation: his season before Chengdu has been a bit of a rollercoaster, so Musetti's returning and rally depth under sustained pressure could uncover his slip. Nevertheless, Tabilo's serve is what keeps him alive in short formats and tiebreak scenarios.
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👥 Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo Head-to-Head Statistics
Musetti leads their H2H 1–0 — the only recorded meeting came in the Antalya Challenger (Jan 28, 2021), where Musetti won 6-2, 6-0 (clay).
🥎 Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo Betting Tips and Odds
- Musetti to win (match winner) — the Italian in-form top seed is on a roll and has served with authority all week.
- Over 21.5 total games — Tabilo’s serve and general comfort in tiebreaks suggest at least one set will be tight.
- Each player to win a set — the Chilean’s good form and serving will probably prevent a straight-sets shock.
- The tiebreak in set 2 — the second set of the matches this week has been close; Tabilo took an important tiebreak in his semi-final.
- Combined aces Over 10.5 — both players have had high-ace counts in their late-round matches.
🥎 Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo Match Prediction
Musetti is the one I would pick to win. However, I would not be surprised if he had to fight hard in the second set and if the score reached tiebreak. Musetti is in a better position because of his better serve and smoother baseline play in recent matches while Tabilo comes from the qualifiers full of energy and has a powerful serve which allows him to be dangerous for short periods of time.
Top bet recommendations:-
🏅Over 21.5 games @ 1.61 odds on Betway
🏅2nd set over 9.5 games @ 1.66 odds on Bet365
🏅Lorenzo Musetti win 2-1 @ 3.74 odds on 1xbet
⚠️ Disclaimer: Betting odds and lines are subject to change. Please check with your bookmaker for the latest prices before placing any wagers.
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