We’ve got a mouthwatering clay-court showdown brewing in Monte Carlo as two stylish one-handers square off: Stefanos Tsitsipas and Lorenzo Musetti. Both players come off commanding straight-set wins, setting the stage for a captivating round of tennis. Tsitsipas, a two-time Monte Carlo champ, will look to maintain his dominance over Musetti, who’s still hunting for his first win against the Greek. But don’t let the H2H stat fool you—Musetti's form is peaking at just the right time.
With the ATP clay swing heating up, this clash could be closer than it looks on paper. We’ll break down both players’ recent performances, their head-to-head history, and most importantly—run the numbers through our betting model to give you the top 3 safest betting tips based on probabilities, trends, and current odds. Whether you're placing a wager or just a fan of high-quality tennis, this is your one-stop previews.
Claim Welcome BonusSTEFANOS TSITSIPAS (GREECE, ATP RANK 8)
Tsitsipas comes into this match with a record that suggests he’s sharpening up just in time for the clay season. His recent five-match form of LWLWW may look patchy at first glance, but his last outing was anything but. He demolished Nuno Borges in a swift 2-0 win (1-6, 1-6), showcasing his usual clay-court finesse and consistency from the baseline.
Looking at the numbers:
Aces: 3
Double faults: 2
First serve percentage: 57%
Break points saved: 83%
First serve return points won: 58%
Break points converted: 6
While his serve percentages might raise an eyebrow, his 83% break point save rate shows his ability to hold his nerve under pressure. What really stands out is how aggressive his return game has been—winning more than half of first-serve returns is elite.
Tsitsipas thrives in Monte Carlo, having lifted the trophy twice before. He’s already shown glimpses of the form that took him deep into previous editions. The Greek is comfortable dictating rallies with his heavy forehand and isn’t afraid to mix it up with slices, angles, and net play.
LORENZO MUSETTI (ITALY, ATP RANK 16)
Lorenzo Musetti’s game was made for clay. The Italian’s flair, variety, and comfort with sliding around the red dirt make him a constant threat—especially when confidence is high. He’s riding a hot streak with a recent form of WLWWW, and his last win was particularly impressive—a straight-sets victory over Matteo Berrettini (3-6, 3-6).
Key stats from his last match:
Aces: 0
Double faults: 1
First serve percentage: 74%
Break points saved: 0%
First serve return points won: 32%
Break points converted: 3
While his serve numbers were solid—especially the 74% first-serve in—his return game left a bit to be desired. Zero break points saved could be worrying, but against a big server like Berrettini, that’s not entirely unexpected. Musetti’s edge lies in his ability to extend rallies, lure errors, and hit with deceptive spin.
His clean win against a fellow countryman showed composure and variety. But with Musetti yet to beat Tsitsipas, he’ll need to dig deep—mentally and tactically—to flip the script this time around.
Head to Head
It’s a one-sided rivalry so far—Tsitsipas leads 5-0 against Musetti. Their most recent encounter came at the ATP 1000 in Rome last year, where Tsitsipas edged both sets 7-5, 7-5. That match, played on clay, offered a glimpse into just how tightly contested their duels can be, even if the scoreboard doesn’t show it.
Despite the lopsided H2H, Musetti has steadily improved and could finally break through. However, Tsitsipas' dominance isn’t just mental—it’s technical. He tends to rush Musetti with heavy topspin and keeps points short, not allowing the Italian to build rhythm.
Expert Betting Tips
Over 22.5 Games @ 1.87
These two often go deep into sets. A tie-break or 7-5 set is highly likely.
Tsitsipas (-2.5 games handicap) @ 1.952
With 5 previous straight-set wins over Musetti, covering this spread is highly probable.
Tsitsipas to Win @ 1.63
The Greek’s form in Monte Carlo and dominance in this matchup make this a solid moneyline bet.
Other predictions
