Lorenzo Sonego vs Alexander Zverev Prediction: Underestimated Sonego tests Zverev’s mettle

Lorenzo Sonego vs Alexander Zverev: Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds for the Tennis match - 26.05.2025

ATP 500 China Open is back in Beijing, and it will be played on the hard courts. Top-seeded Alexander Zverev is set to face off against Lorenzo Sonego in the first round of the tournament. Zverev will be coming into the game as one of the most stable players from the top 10, while Sonego is in the mid-40s ranking with somewhat mixed form but a decent hard court résumé — their head-to-head is very much in favour of Zverev. This looks like a clear favourite pick for the bookmakers). However, there are low-risk betting opportunities for those playing on the length of the match (bookie total 22.5) if they want to be more conservative with their stakes.

🇮🇹 Lorenzo Sonego

Lorenzo Sonego (ATP No. 44) had a somewhat inconsistent 2025 but is still a player to watch out for on hard courts as he has a big serve and an aggressive inside-out forehand. Earlier this month, he made it into the main draws of the Asian swing but lost in Chengdu’s second round to Marcos Giron 6-4, 6-4 — a sign that his quivering form can be exploited by those who are solid on the return. Sonego’s performance this year is close to balancing with a little over 15 wins (ESPN season stats report ~17–22 for 2025), and he is more comfortable when he scores easy points on his serve and hits through short balls. In terms of strategy, Sonego will attempt to hit the ball first, implement his slice and net approaches to get shorter rallies, and compel Zverev to come off the baseline. The truth: on facing a top-3/seeding opponent like Zverev with great court coverage, Sonego must be almost flawless in serving and have very few unforced errors if he wants to pull off a surprise win.

🇩🇪 Alexander Zverev

Alexander Zverev (ATP No.3) is still one of the tour's most complete baseline players - big let off, lightening fast inside-out forehand, and a decisive twined backhand that he uses to dictate points. His 2025 season looks very good with an impressive percentage of wins (40s vs teens year-to-date on stat trackers) and thus he is coming to Beijing as one of the winners and the seeded player.First of all, Zverev has beaten Sonego several times (great H2H statistics) and generally has match control from the baseline; his better mobility and pushing on hard courts turn him into a clear tactical favorite here.

Things to remember recently: Zverev won a trophy this year (Munich) and played team/exhibition events (Laver Cup) so he is definitely match sharp, however, he is not an easy opponent for a tight three-setter. Zverev is probably going to kick off his matches with heavy serves and go after short third balls to finish points.

👥 Lorenzo Sonego vs Alexander Zverev Head-to-Head Statistics

Alexander Zverev leads Lorenzo Sonego decisively (5-0 H2H), including a close win at Halle earlier this year.

🎾 Lorenzo Sonego vs Alexander Zverev Betting Tips and Odds

• Alexander Zverev — Match Winner:- Zverev was the most likely winner by far according to the odds from several sportsbooks.
• Under 22.5 games:- aligns with a straight-sets dominance scenario.
• Under 2.5 Sets:- the betting market was indicating a straight-sets victory as the most likely outcome and therefore this option considered safer than many set-bets.
• Zverev 2-0:- was at the top of the list in the set markets and could work as an additional moderate-risk option if you consider slightly lower value.
• Zverev to win the 1st set:- A simple, low-risk, early alternative to full match bet.

🥎 Lorenzo Sonego vs Alexander Zverev Match Prediction

Alexander Zverev to win in straight sets (2-0). He’s the class player here: top-5 ranking, superior H2H and consistent hard-court form make him the sensible favourite. Markets back this up (Zverev heavy favourite; set markets lean 2-0). 

Top bet recommendations:-

🏅Zverev win + Under 2.5 Sets @ 1.69 odds on 1xbet 

🏅Under 22.5 games @ 1.74 odds on Betway

🏅Zverev win 2-0 @ 1.69 odds on Bet365

⚠️ Disclaimer: Betting odds and lines are subject to change. Please check with your bookmaker for the latest prices before placing any wagers.