Martha Kostyuk vs Elena Rybakina Prediction: Rybakina’s firepower meets Kostyuk’s grit in WTA 1000 Montreal quarterfinal showdown

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05 Aug 2025 00:00
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Tennis WTA 1000 Montreal Canada Quarterfinal
05 August 2025 | 00:00
Court Montreal Canada
Outdoor Hard
Raphael George
03 Aug 2025
20:26
All time statistics:
1929
1167
96
60.43%
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Odds 1,6
Bet Type Rybakina to cover -4.5 games handicap
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Martha Kostyuk vs Elena Rybakina: Prediction for the Match on August 05, 2025

The high-profile quarterfinal match of the WTA 1000 National Bank Open in Montreal set for August 5, 2025: world number 12 Elena Rybakina versus number 28 Marta Kostyuk. This matchup promises interesting propositions for the punters and tennis bettors as both players are in great form on the hard courts. We will be looking into the H2H stats, serve metrics, and form trends for a comprehensive prediction of the Canadian Open quarterfinals.

Keywords: Marta Kostyuk vs Elena Rybakina, WTA Montreal prediction, Canadian Open betting tips, WTA 1000 Montreal 2025, Kostyuk Rybakina odds, tennis betting preview, Montreal quarterfinal picks.

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Ranked No. 28, Marta Kostyuk maintains 12 wins and nine losses on hardcourts this year for a ~56% winning percentage. In Montreal's round of 16, she exhibited trademark resilience by rallying from a set down to defeat McCartney Kessler, 5–7, 6–3, 6–3, underpinning her fighting spirit appreciated by tennis fans and betting experts.

The season includes a third-round passage in the Australian Open but earlier defeats at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Nonetheless, her presence on social media and during on-court interviews tells of a new tactical awareness and physical stamina growing within her. She chases down big forehands from the baseline and follows up with well-timed net approaches. Yet her extended time on the court in Montreal might work against her on this fast-paced hard court.

World No. 12 Rybakina enters this match with her 20–8 record on hard courts so far into the year (~71%). Rybakina's serve could still be considered very deadly as it averages 6.1 aces per match with about 75% points won on the first serve. She upset Dayana Yastremska 5–7, 6–2, 7–5 in the round of 16, showing great composure in clutch moments. 

Having recently broken through and won Strasbourg, she proceeded into the fourth round at Roland Garros, showing an admirable consistency in her performances during this season, especially when pressure mattered on court. Hence, right now, Rybakina possesses somewhat of a winning advantage by way of her explosive serve coupled with good conversion figures in pressure situations on the mainstage at the IGA Stadium in Montreal-that is an aspect bettors should absorb well.

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Rybakina leads the head-to-head series 2–1 in WTA matches. Notably, she has won five of their seven sets, including their most recent encounter at Stuttgart (April 21, 2024), where she cruised to a dominant 6–2, 6–2 victory on clay.

  • Rybakina won both recent H2H meetings without dropping a set (6–2, 6–2; 6–2, 6–1).
  • Rybakina’s average of 6+ aces per match and 75% first-serve points won could overwhelm Kostyuk’s return game.
  • In her last match, Kostyuk faced 53 pressure points and 20 break points—showing mental grit but also potential fatigue.
  • Rybakina has spent less time on court in Montreal, offering her a possible freshness advantage in key rallies.

Elena Rybakina is the clear favorite based on her serve stats, head-to-head edge, and hard-court efficiency. Expect her to dictate play from the baseline and capitalize on any signs of fatigue from Kostyuk.

My top 3 Betting Picks:

Rybakina to cover -4.5 games handicap @ 1.6 odds on Betway.com – Her past wins over Kostyuk suggest she can clear this line comfortably. (Rating: ⭐⭐⭐)

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Elena Rybakina to win in straight sets @ 1.8 odds on Bet365.com – Backed by her recent straight-set victories over Kostyuk and dominant serve numbers. (Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐) 

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Total games under 22.5 @ 1.61 odds on 1xbet.com – Rybakina’s service hold strength and potential for quick set closures make this a solid value pick. (Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)

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