Matteo Berrettini vs Raphaël Collignon: Prediction for the Match on November 21, 2025
On Friday, November 21, at 20:00 MSK (18:00 GMT), Matteo Berrettini will face Raphaël Collignon in the second singles match of the 2025 Davis Cup semifinals. This match will take place on indoor hard courts at the Unipol Arena in Bologna, where Italy aims for a historic third consecutive title against Belgium, which is seeking its first final appearance since 2017.
The atmosphere will be electric, with 5,000 passionate Azzurri supporters turning Bologna into a true fortress. Berrettini, Italy’s 29-year-old player ranked No. 56, is fresh off a challenging quarterfinal victory over Jurij Rodionov, where he saved three set points in the second set to win 6-3, 7-6(4). He will shoulder the nation's aspirations alongside a youthful team, as top players Sinner and Musetti are absent. Berrettini boasts an impressive 10-2 Davis Cup record, contributing to a remarkable streak over 12 ties.
On the opposing side, Collignon, Belgium’s rising star at 23 years old and ranked No. 73, is coming off a dramatic 2-6, 7-5, 7-5 victory against Corentin Moutet that helped secure Belgium's stunning 2-0 win over France. Although the players have no prior head-to-head encounters, Berrettini carries an implied win probability of 75% with odds of 1.33 on 1xbet, bolstered by his competitive year with a 20-17 record and a powerful indoor serve.
As the teams prepare to compete, the stage is set for an exciting showdown where experience clashes with ambition.
Claim Welcome Bonus🇮🇹 Matteo Berrettini: Form and Statistics
Matteo Berrettini's performance in the Davis Cup stands out, showcasing a remarkable 10-2 record (ITF), including a flawless 6-0 during Italy's successful title defense in 2024. This impressive win rate of 83% in high-pressure matches positions him among the best in the competition. Although his global ATP ranking is currently No. 56, it does not reflect his 20-17 year-to-date record, which has been impacted by injuries. Notably, he has secured victories over four top-50 opponents and achieved a commendable 72% service hold, reminiscent of his peak in the top ten.
Berrettini's dominance on clay, where he holds a 15-13 record, also translates well to hard courts, evidenced by a 35% break conversion rate that rivals the best in the sport. During the recent tournament in Paris, Berrettini began confidently by defeating qualifier Roman Safiullin 6-4, 6-3 in the opening round. He delivered 12 aces, converted two out of three break points, and saved four out of five break points faced in a decisive 89-minute match. The pivotal break at 4-3 in the first set came from a powerful forehand, while his 82% success rate on first serves proved crucial.
In the second round, Berrettini faced Tommy Paul, losing 4-6, 3-6. In this match, he achieved a 45% return rate but allowed Paul to strike 10 aces and saved three out of six break points in a closely contested 78-minute battle.
Looking at his recent indoor performances, Berrettini has compiled a record of three wins and two losses, which includes victories over players such as Rodionov and Tiafoe. After his match against Rodionov on November 19, Berrettini expressed his passion for the Davis Cup, stating, 🗣️"This fire in Davis Cup? It's what keeps me going – every point for Italy feels like coming home."
Tactically, Berrettini's serve-and-volley game has improved, achieving a 28% rate with a 70% success rate, making him particularly effective on fast indoor surfaces. Against opponents like Collignon, he can utilize his inside-out forehands to exploit weaknesses.
For those considering betting, prop bets favor Berrettini at -4.5 games, as he historically averages a 5.1-game handicap against left-handed players, and an under of 21.5 games seems prudent given his propensity for rapid matches.
As Berrettini aims for semi-final success, he works towards solidifying his legacy and reclaiming his place in the top 40 following injuries, all while bringing pride to Italian tennis.
🇧🇪 Raphaël Collignon: Form and Statistics
Collignon's impressive rise in the ATP rankings, reaching a career-high No. 73, is fueled by a remarkable record of 39 wins against 22 losses this year, including three Challenger titles and notable victories over established players such as Ruud, de Minaur, and Davidovich Fokina. His performance marks him as a significant contender in Belgium's pursuit to secure a spot in the top 100, particularly highlighted by a 64% success rate in deciding sets against opponents ranked outside the top 80. During this ascent, Collignon has demonstrated a solid hard-court record of 8 wins and 6 losses, capitalizing on 75% of his first serves while converting 38% of break points, showcasing his prowess as a counterpuncher.
Recently, in the qualifying rounds of the Paris tournament, Collignon achieved a notable 7-6(4), 6-4 victory over qualifier Murkel Dellien. He displayed resilience by saving 5 out of 7 break points in a match that lasted 95 minutes, hitting 22 winners. However, he faced a setback in the second round, losing to Thiago Agustin Tirante with a score of 6-4, 3-6, 4-6 after committing 28 errors.
Collignon's recent indoor matches show a mixed record of wins and losses, including a significant victory against Moutet and tough matches against both Tirante and Dellien. After his win over Moutet, he expressed to ITF media the pride of representing his small country, emphasizing the lack of pain when playing for national pride.
Looking ahead, Collignon's approach to net play has improved significantly, with a 22% success rate and a 65% conversion on fast hard courts since September. When facing Berrettini, he aims to disrupt his opponent's rhythm with low forehand chips directed to the backhand, a strategy that has proven effective in recent matches. Given his current form, a betting prop of Collignon +4.5 games is worth considering, as he has held serve 74% of the time against powerful hitters. Additionally, the possibility of over 2.5 sets is strong, as he has pushed four out of five elite opponents to decisive sets, displaying sharpness in tiebreaks. His year-to-date hard court record stands at 8-6, where flat returns have exploited opponents, even as double faults pose a challenge in extended rallies. Overall, Collignon's journey reflects the emergence of a promising player with aspirations for the top 50 and beyond, encapsulating the spirit of a nation eager for tennis success.
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Matteo Berrettini vs Raphaël Collignon Head-to-Head Statistics
H2H: Berrettini 0–0 overall (ATP).
With no prior meetings, the upcoming semifinal clash presents an intriguing matchup: Berrettini's top-10 experience against Collignon's Challenger-level tenacity. Their indoor hard court records show Berrettini at 3-1 for 2025, compared to Collignon's 2-1. Notably, Berrettini boasts a remarkable 98% hold rate, which could counter Collignon's struggle with a 38% return rate in unfamiliar scenarios. A compelling betting option might be the over 21.5 games, given both players' intensity and Collignon's tendency to reach decisive set points.
Matteo Berrettini vs Raphaël Collignon Betting Tips and Odds
- Berrettini -4.5 games – His 98% indoor holds average 5-game edges vs. risers like Collignon.
- Under 21.5 games – Berrettini's straights clock 18.6 games indoors (ATP), fading Collignon's 1-3 top-50 endurance.
- Berrettini 2-0 sets – 4/5 recent indoors in straights, exploiting Collignon's 0-2 vs. top-60 without a set.
Matteo Berrettini vs Raphaël Collignon Match Prediction
Who emerges victorious? The prediction favors Berrettini with a 75% likelihood.
Berrettini’s powerful serve will face off against Collignon’s agile style in a match that could either elevate Italy’s aspirations or mark a stunning achievement for Belgium.
In the first set, Berrettini will showcase his serving prowess, winning 98% of points on his serve and breaking Collignon at 4-3 after the Belgian suffers a double-fault. The scoreboard at the end of the set will reflect a score of 6-3, heavily influenced by Berrettini's strong indoor performance against Collignon’s higher error rate.
The second set sees Collignon adapt his strategy, using deft slices to dispel the potency of Berrettini’s forehand. Collignon will navigate to a 40-15 hold and manage to break Berrettini at 3-3 following an unfortunate netted volley, resulting in a set score of 4-6.
In the decisive third set, Berrettini will escalate his game, securing a break at 2-1 after navigating through three deuces and landing an impressive ace at 5-3. Ultimately, he closes it out with a final score of 6-3, 4-6, 6-2. Notably, while Collignon carries a 25% chance of causing an upset—conditional upon Berrettini's serve falling below eight aces—his resilience and fighting spirit propel him forward.
Top 3 Recommended Bets:
Berrettini -4.5 games @ 1.80 odds (odd is speculative)
Under 21.5 games @ 1.70 odds (odd is speculative)
Berrettini 2-0 sets @ 1.65 odds (odd is speculative)
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