Naomi Osaka vs Paula Badosa: Prediction and odds on the Match on 26 May 2025
At the French Open 2025, come May 26, the Round of 128 will start at the Roland Garros Stadium with the face-off of Naomi Osaka of Japan (WTA 49) against Paula Badosa of Spain (WTA 10).
Osaka, holding up a good form since January with eight wins to just two losses and a Rome R16 exit, sits at 1.80 to win against Badosa's 2.00 odds, who is at 6-4 this season and is set on making a comeback on clay from Strasbourg. Having never met before, this first-time duel will certainly draw a lot of attention.
Would the power of Osaka beat the grit of Badosa as the debuttante tries to find her old form? Our experts marry stats, trends, and insights to bring you the sharpest picks possible for this R128 tussle kicking off, so keep reading!
Claim Welcome Bonus🇯🇵 Naomi Osaka: form and statistics
Naomi Osaka booms onto Roland Garros clay like a radiant Japanese phoenix, her serve lighting the red dirt up. WTA rank 49th, Osaka has a form of 8-2 and also clay form of 8-2 for 2025. She recently lost 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 in Rome R16 to Peyton Stearns after hitting 10 aces with 0 double faults, 65% first serve, 77% first serve points won, 0/3 break points saved, and 3 break points converted.
Her clay stats for 2025 are 58.1% first serve, 75.0% first serve points won, 84.5% second serve, 6.2 aces per match, 4.9 double faults per match, 63% break points saved, 46% break points converted, and 0% tiebreak wins.
After a QF in Stuttgart and very good form in Rome, the 10-ace of Osaka is a sign that she might be making a comeback on the clay, while her break point defense is something that she needs to do much work on against Badosa.
🇪🇸 Paula Badosa: form and statistics
Like an exquisite Spanish flamenco dancer gliding on the clay at Roland Garros, there is an elegance coupled with tremendous fighting spirit. She is ranked WTA 10, showing a 6-4 record for the year and 1-2 on clay surfaces in 2025. Her recent 4-6, 6-3, 4-6 loss to Liudmila Samsonova in the Strasbourg QF had interesting match stats: 3 aces, 6 double faults, 64% first serve percentage, 58% first serve points won, 8/13 break points saved, and 4 break points converted. Her 2025 clay stats read like this: 61.5% first serve percentage, 58.7% first serve points won, 85.1% second serve points won, 1.5 aces per match, 3.5 double faults per match, 56% break points saved, 40% break points converted, and 0% tiebreak wins.
She had rather few tournaments on clay this year, for sure, but combined with her R16 run at Roland Garros 2021, Badosa should very well be able to challenge Osaka's power.
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Miami Osaka vs Paula Badosa Head-to-Head Statistics
Naomi Osaka and Paula Badosa have never met before, so this R128 clash gives birth for their very first encounter without any H2H streak to be mapped out. Osaka’s 8-2 clay record and 46 percent conversion of break points stand above Badosa’s 1-2 form and 40 percent conversion, while 75.0 percent of the time on first serves, points went for Osaka versus 58.7 percent for Badosa.
Neither of them has tiebreaked on clay this year, so it might become a set-based battle. Osaka’s recent 10-ace showing in Rome may have the edge, but Badosa’s 56 percent breakpoint saves on clay might keep it tight. The debut collision may well end up weighing on the serve of Osaka and the resilience of Badosa.
Miami Osaka vs Paula Badosa: Betting Tips and Odds
- Osaka’s 6.2 aces/match and 75.0% first serve points won make her a solid pick at 1.80 odds
- Badosa's 56% break point saves support +1.5 games at 1.811 odds.
- Their recent three-set matches (e.g., Osaka’s 7-6 tiebreak) suggest under 22.5 games (1.78 odds).
- Osaka’s 8-2 clay form backs the -1.5 games handicap at 1.85 odds.
- Badosa's 35% first serve return points won offers value for over 2.5 break points converted at 1.80 odds.
Naomi Osaka vs Paula Badosa Match Prediction
The odds give correspondent slight technical meaning: Osaka 1.80 and Badosa 2.00. Osaka leads 8-2 on clay courts and earns 6.2 aces per match and 75% of points with her first serve. Badosa's 1-2 clay outing and 3.5 double-faults average per match don't really help in absconding from Osaka's momentum in Rome, although her 56% break point saves could stretch the sets.
In Rome, no tiebreak win and 0/3 break points saved, she looks vulnerable, but her power should carry her through. A tight three-setter is expected, with Osaka's serve being the deciding factor.
Below are the top betting tips for this thrilling encounter:-
Match Prediction: Osaka in 3 sets @ 4.00 Odds on Bet365
Bet Tip: Osaka -1.5 games @ 1.85 Odds on Betway
Main Bet Tip: Under 22.5 games @ 1.78 Odds on 1xbet
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