Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Bublik: Prediction and odds on the Match on 29 May 2025
The 2025 French Open will heat up on May 29, with a thrilling Round of 64 clash at the Roland Garros Court, where Australia's Alex de Minaur (ATP 9) will meet Alexander Bublik of Kazakhstan (ATP 62). De Minaur, with a 7-3 form after a 3-0 win over Laslo Djere, is favored at 1.124, while Bublik, 7-3 himself after a 3-0 win against James Duckworth, aims to defy odds of 4.91.
Their H2H stands favorably to De Minaur at 3-0, but Bublik's big serving could pose challenges on the clay. De Minaur carries confidence off his quarterfinal run here in 2024, whereas Bublik's form recently looks good.
In anticipation of this clash at 10:00 GMT, our combined analysis of stats and trends furnishes hot betting picks for the clash in Paris—keep reading!
Claim Welcome Bonus🇦🇺 Alex de Minaur: form and statistics
An Australian cheetah, his fast-and-relentless-grit ways just illuminate the red-dirt court! Ranked 9th in the ATP in 2025, De Minaur is coming into the tournament with a 7-3 win-loss record and a clay record of 10-4. He recently defeated Laslo Djere 6-3, 6-4, 7-6 with 2 aces, 5 double faults, 43% first serves, 74% first serve points won, 3/5 break points saved, 4 break points converted.
To date, his clay stats in 2025 stand at 54.6% first serve, 67.4% first serve points won, 90.9% second serve points won, 1.4 aces per match, 2.7 double faults per match, 56% break points saved, 49% break points converted, and 50% tiebreak wins.
De Minaur is the best clay-courter in the world, which was brightened by reaching the quarterfinals of the 2024 French Open and semifinalist of the Monte-Carlo Masters this year. World-class endurance mixed with aggressive baseline rulings means he is the man-to-beat, but the first serve worked just 43% of the time against Bublik in R128- and that is going to need fixing.
🇰🇿 Alexander Bublik: form and statistics
Considered a thunderbolt from Kazakhstan, Alexander Bublik makes a storming entrance on the Roland Garros clay, with his notoriously booming serves electrifying the Parisian court! ATP ranked 62, Bublik mirrors De Minaur's 7-3 form through a 12-5 clay record in 2025. His recent win came against James Duckworth with 6-2, 6-4, 6-4; in the match, he served 16 aces and 9 double faults, hit 67% first serves, won 82% of those first serve points, saved 4/4 break points, and converted 4 break points in return.
This year, his clay stats are 62.4% first serve percentage, 73.4% first serve points won, 83.4% second serve points won, 9.7 aces per match, 5.1 double faults per match, 68% break points saved, 40% break points converted, and 100% wins in tiebreak.
A win at the 2024 Open Sud de France title and a further upset over a top seed at Adelaide show what he can do, although with 5.1 db faults on clay, he could be a liability in the face of De Minaur's excellent return game.
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Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Bublik Head-to-Head Statistics
Alex De Minaur leads Alexander Bublik, 3-0, in their head-to-head, the most recent meeting at the ATP 1000 Indian Wells 2024 with a 7-5, 6-0 De Minaur win. De Minaur's 10-4 record on clay and 49% break-point conversion overshadow Bublik's 12-5 and 40%, whereas Bublik's 68% break-point save rate has an edge over De Minaur's 56%. Bublik's 100% win rate in clay tiebreaks tops De Minaur's 50% while De Minaur's second-serve points won rate of 90.9% crushes Bublik's 83.4%.
Given De Minaur's baseline consistency, it has historically made things tough for Bublik's serve-and-volley manner; hence, this is a tough one for the Kazakh on clay.
Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Bublik Betting Tips and Odds
- De Minaur’s 3-0 H2H record and 67.4% first serve points won make him a lock at 1.124 odds
- Bublik's 9.7 aces/match on clay supports over 1.5 aces in the first set at 1.80 odds.
- De Minaur’s straight-set H2H wins and Bublik’s 5.1 double faults/match suggest under 3.5 sets at 1.75 odds.
- De Minaur’s 49% break point conversion backs the -5.5 games handicap at 1.90 odds.
- Bublik's 100% tiebreak win rate offers value for over 0.5 tiebreaks at 1.85 odds.
Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Bublik Match Prediction
Alexander de Minaur (1.124) holds a slight edge in the matchup, given the 3-0 H2H lead, 10-4 clay record, and 2024 French Open quarterfinal run, over Alexander Bublik (4.91). Bublik's 12-5 record on clay and almost 10 aces per match threaten De Minaur, but with five double faults per match and a mere 40% of break points converted, Bublik struggles as De Minaur saves 56% of his break points. The concern is De Minaur's 43% first serve in the R128, but his 74% success on first serve points should help to counter Bublik's serving. Expect a straight-set win by De Minaur, who will capitalize on consistency.
Prediction: De Minaur in 3 sets @ 1.89 Odds on 1xbet
Bet Tip: De Minaur -7.5 games @ 1.98 Odds on Bet365
Main Bet Tip: Under 3.5 sets @ 1.71 Odds on Betway
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