French Open 2025: Pavlyuchenkova vs Zheng R128
May 25 is the opening day of 2025 French Open, and the first-round 128 encounter will feature Anastasiya Pavlyuchenkova of Russia (WTA 51) facing China's Qinwen Zheng (WTA 8) at Roland Garros.
Zheng is coming into this with a 6-4 form and a semifinal appearance, with odds of 1.173 to win. Pavlyuchenkova, at 4-6 recently and with 5.1 odds, looks to repeat her Cincinnati upset. The Russian leads the H2H 1-0, putting more spice into this clay court fight.
With Zheng in the Sabalenka draw section and Pavlyuchenkova's clay experience to factor in, who will be moving onward?
Our analysis combines stats, trends, and key insights to carve out betting picks for this first-round battle—jump in!
Claim Welcome Bonus🇷🇺 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: Russian Veteran’s Clay Challenge
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova steps onto the Roland Garros clay with immense experience serving as a shield against the toughest opponents. Ranked WTA 51, Pavlyuchenkova sports a 4-6 form with a 1-2 clay record in 2025. The 3-6, 0-6 loss at the hands of Sofia Kenin in the Rome R64 showed 3 aces, 2 double faults, 55% first serve, 63% first serve points won, 0/5 break points saved, and 1 break point converted.
The 2025 clay stats are the same as above-were considered, with 50.5% first serve, 71.0% first serve points won, 85.7% second serve, 2.7 aces/match, 5.0 double faults/match, 58% break points saved, and 44% converted, with 0% tiebreak wins.
French Open finalist in 2021, her 1-0 h2h advantage over Zheng (2024 Cincinnati) elevates the hope of an upset, but she has to tame 5.0 double faults per match if she is ever to fight the aggressive Chinese.
🇨🇳 Qinwen Zheng: Chinese Star’s Roland Garros Quest
Zheng glides onto the Roland Garros clay in style-her power and precision are appealing to watch. Zheng is WTA ranked 8, with a form of 6-4 and 6-3 on clay for 2025.
Her last performance in the Rome semifinals was marked by a 6-7,6-4,6-7 loss to Coco Gauff with 1 ace and 4 double faults, a 53% first serve, 51% first serve points won, 8/17 break points saved, and 10 break points converted. Her clay stats for 2025 stand at 52.2% for the first serve, 68.0% first serve points won, 87.9% second serve, 2.8 aces/match, 3.9 double faults/match, 55% break points saved, 46% break points converted, and 0% tiebreak wins.
Great summer for Zheng on clay after defeating Sabalenka in Rome and winning Olympic gold, though she will need to sharpen her serving consistency to dominate Pavlyuchenkova.
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👥 Head-to-Head: Pavlyuchenkova vs Zheng
At the 2024 Cincinnati League R16 meeting, Pavlyuchenkova held an edge 1-0 and won by straight sets (7-5, 6-1).
On clay, Zheng holds a 6-3 advantage with a 46% break-point conversion rate against Pavlyuchenkova's 1-2 and 44%, though Pavlyuchenkova's 71.0% winner of points on first serve is better than Zheng's 68.0%. Neither player has won a tiebreak this year on the clay courts, so straight-set victories should come.
An R128 rematch would pit Pavlyuchenkova's vast experience against Zheng's power, with the H2H series going in favor of the Russian but with the current form going to the Chinese star.
📉 Top Betting Trends for Pavlyuchenkova vs Zheng
- Zheng’s 6-3 clay record and 46% break point conversion make her a strong pick at 1.173 odds
- Pavlyuchenkova’s 2.7 aces/match on clay offers value for over 2.5 aces at 1.80 odds.
- Their 2024 Cincinnati match (19 games) and Zheng’s form suggest under 19.5 games (1.88 odds).
- Zheng’s 6-3 clay form supports the -5.5 games handicap at 1.88 odds.
- Her 58% break point saves make +5.5 games a safe bet at 1.88 odds.
French Open 2025 R128 Predictions and Betting Picks
With her 1.173 odds, casual punters favor Qinwen Zheng due to a 6-3 record on clay and 46% break point conversions, instead of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova’s 1-2 record and 5.0 double faults per match. Despite her 1-0 H2H lead, Pavlyuchenkova’s 4-6 form, 0/5 break points saved in Rome show she is very vulnerable. Zheng’s semifinal run in Rome with a win over Sabalenka further shows her clay credentials, while her 3.9 double faults could give Pavlyuchenkova some openings. Expect Zheng to win in straight sets as she has the aggressive pattern of play from the baseline.
Below are the top 3 picks for this upcoming match:
Pick: Zheng in 2 sets @ 1.60 Odds on 1xbet
Bet Tip: Zheng -5.5 games @ 1.88 Odds on Betway
Value Tip: Under 19.5 games @ 1.88 Odds on Bet365
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