Anca Alexia Todoni vs Jessica Pegula Prediction: Can Todoni Upset Pegula in R128?

Anca Alexia Todoni vs Jessica Pegula: Prediction and odds on the Match on 27 May 2025

A day of exciting Round of 128 match at Roland Garros awaits on May 26: Anca Alexia Todoni (WTA 88) of Romania versus Jessica Pegula (WTA 3). Pegula enters the fray as a 1.175 favorite with a 6-4 form, R16 exit in Strasbourg; Todoni, going at 6-4 odds, hopes to secure her first main-draw victory here following a Rome qualifier win. H2H: no prior meetings-both faced off for the first time ever on clay, putting the experience of Pegula against the comfort of Todoni on the surface. 

Third seed Pegula is aiming for her first Grand Slam, while Todoni wants to start carving a name for herself. Pepper added to selling points is Pegula recently dealing with emotional grief off the court since the death of her dog, Tucker. 

Our analysis mixing stats, trends, and insight will bring you scorching sharp picks for this R128 showdown.

🇷🇴 Anca Alexia Todoni: form and statistics

On the Roland Garros clay, Anca Alexia Todoni perhaps comes in like a wild Romanian blaze, her fiery determination burning up the red clay. At WTA 88, the 20-year-old brings along a 6-4 record as of now and a 6-2 on clay in 2025. Her last fully played match stands as a 6-2, 6-2 victory over Harriet Dart in the Rome qualifier R1, with 4 aces, 0 double faults, 77% first serve, 60% first serve points won, 9/10 break points saved, 5 break points converted. That, of course, was followed by a walkover loss to Ana Blinkova. 

Her 2025 stats on clay: 69.6% first serve, 60.8% first serve points won, 91.9% second serve, 1.4 aces/match, 1.5 double faults/match, 65% break points saved, and 61% converted, with 0% tiebreaks won. 

With three WTA Challenger clay titles, inclusive of the Megasaray Hotels Open in Antalya, Todoni’s clay credentials are evident, but lack of experience on the big stage might stand against Pegula in a battle of seasoned games.

🇺🇸 Jessica Pegula: form and statistics

The American eagle-like tennis player Jessica Pegula flies over the Roland Garros clay courts, with her dependable wings ready to face any challenges with an effortless glide. WTA-ranked third in 2025, Pegula is carrying a 6-4 form score and an 8-4 clay record. Her latest match loss came to Anna Kalinskaya in Strasbourg R16, 6-4, 4-6, 2-6, with 4 aces, 7 double faults, 49% first serve, 73% first-serve points won, 2/6 break points saved, and 3 converted. 

Her 2025 clay details record 59.8% first serve, 64.9% first serve points won, 89.4% second serve, 1.6 aces/match, 2.6 double faults/match, 61% break points saved, 44% break points converted, and 0% tiebreak wins. The interval from Charleston has not been so good for her on clay, though, at 3-4; however, she peaked in Austin and Charleston and made the Roland Garros quarterfinal in 2022. 

Meanwhile, her emotional strain working against Todoni might test her focus after the demise of her dog Tucker.

Anca Alexia Todoni vs Jessica Pegula Head-to-Head Statistics

Anca Alexia Todoni-Jessica Pegula have had no formal meetings to date; hence, this R128 clash marks the first in their H2H record. Todoni's record on clay stands at 6-2, with a break point conversion rate of 61%, overshadowing Pegula's 8-4 on clay with only 44% conversion. 

Meanwhile, Todoni could save 65% of break points against Pegula's 61%. Neither player has won a tiebreak on clay this year; therefore, the match could end up being decided by sets. An edge for Pegula also exists in experience with a career record of 461-256 and a 65.9% win percentage on clay service game over the past year, while Todoni's 61% break point conversion might chip away at Pegula's 49% on first serve in Strasbourg.  

This very first meeting will therefore see Todoni's comfort on clay challenged by Pegula's Grand Slam quality.

Anca Alexia Todoni vs Jessica Pegula Betting Tips and Odds

• Pegula’s 8-4 clay record and 65.9% service game wins on clay make her a strong pick at 1.175 odds
• Todoni's 61% break point conversion on clay supports +5.5 games at 1.93 odds.
• Pegula’s 73% first serve points won and Todoni’s 0% tiebreak wins suggest under 19.5 games (1.83 odds).
• Pegula’s 44% break point conversion and ranking edge back the -5.5 games handicap at 1.833 odds.
• Todoni’s 91.9% second serve points won on clay offers value for over 7.5 games won at 1.80 odds.

Anca Alexia Todoni vs Jessica Pegula Match Prediction

Jessica Pegula (1,175) has the technical advantage of an 8-4 clay record, 65.9% service game wins, and the WTA No. 3 ranking over Anca Alexia Todoni (5.05). Todoni's 6-2 form on clay, combined with a 61% break point conversion, do indicate promise, but her inexperience in big stages (first main draw at Roland Garros) and 0% in tiebreak wins are nothing compared to Pegula's 2022 quarterfinal appearance here. A loss at Strasbourg for Pegula, coupled with 7 double faults, may already signal some vulnerability, more so with the incumbency of grief; even then, 73% of first-serve points won should be uphill. Pegula should bag the title in straight sets, depending on experience.

Below are the top betting picks for this game:-

Match Prediction: Pegula in 2 sets @ 1.60 Odds on 1xbet 

Bet Tip: Pegula -5.5 games @ 1.833 Odds on Betway. 

Main Bet Tip: Under 19.5 games @ 1.83 Odds on Bet365