Sabalenka vs Rakhimova: French Open 2025 R128 Preview & Betting Tips
A gripping Round of 128 match at Roland Garros will open the 2025 French Open on May 25, featuring Belarus’ Aryna Sabalenka (WTA 1) against Russian Kamilla Rakhimova (WTA 75).
Sabalenka, coming off a very strong 9-1 and being down just before the QF in Rome, is a 1.01 favorite against Rakhimova who stands at 5-5 and 9.7 odds, aiming to pull the major upset with a 5-10 record on the clay. Sabalenka leads 2-0 head-to-head, last meeting and winning in Washington, in a classic contest of power against grit. With Sabalenka looking for one long run and Rakhimova hoping to convert around this form, something dramatic is assured.
Our analysis mixes stats, trends, and insight to give you sharp betting picks for this opening-round clash - let's go!
Claim Welcome Bonus🇧🇾 Aryna Sabalenka: Belarusian Powerhouse’s Clay Charge
Aryna Sabalenka sweeps in like a thunderous force-of-nature down the Roland Garros clay, with power ready to resolver the tournament.
WTA top 1 ranked, Sabalenka carries with her that sleek 9-1 form and 11-2 clay record in 2025. Her just-passed defeat by Zheng at Rome QF, 4-6, 3-6, saw 0 aces, 1 double fault, 65% first serve, 59% of first serve points won, 7 out of 10 break points saved, and 0 of 0 break points converted.("Her 2025 clay stats encompass 64.1% first serve; 66.7% first serve points won; 90.0% second serve; 3.1 aces per match; 2.5 double faults per match; 69% break points saved; 44% break points converted; and a clean sweep 100% in tiebreaks.")
After three Grand Slam titles, Sabalenka's revival on clay, even with a hiccup in Rome, puts her in contention for the very top. Her 2-0 head-to-head advantage over Rakhimova illustrates supremacy, and she will be looking to batter with her baseline aggression.
🇷🇺 Kamilla Rakhimova: Russian Grit on the Rise
Kamilla Rakhimova enters the Roland Garros clay courts like a crafty artisan, weaving in resilience at every rally. The World No. 75 enters with a 5-5 form and a 5-10 record on the clay in 2025.
Her most recent 2-1 loss to Camila Osorio at Rabat R16 recorded 4 aces, 7 double faults, 63% first serve, 56% first serve points won, 4/11 break points saved, and 5 break points converted. Her clay stats for 2025 include 59.5% first serves in, 63.7% first serve points won, 86.4% second serve won, 1.8 aces per match, 3.6 double faults per match, 54% of break points saved, 49% of break points converted, and 0% in tiebreaks won.
Consistent by nature, Rakhimova will face an uphill task against Sabalenka's huge hitting but her recent vantage of 5 break points in Rabat is indicative of a fighting spirit. She will need to test the top-seed from every error.
More Tennis Predictions
Head-to-Head: Sabalenka vs Rakhimova
Aryna Sabalenka is ahead of Kamilla Rakhimova 2-0, with the most recent meeting being that Rakhimova won in three sets (7-5, 4-6, 6-4) in the 2025 Washington R16. Sabalenka’s power has mostly prevailed as she has won 4 of the 5 sets, with the total games averaging 22.5.
The French Open 2023 clash between them featured Rakhimova being dismantled 6-2, 6-2, as Sabalenka converted break points on 44% of occasions, whereas Rakhimova managed 49%.
Sabalenka stands perfect at her tiebreaks versus Rakhimova with none, giving her a slight advantage in close sets. This R128 rematch will see Sabalenka's dominance potentially clashing with Rakhimova's grit, with most of their history favoring the Belarusian.
Top Betting Trends for Sabalenka vs Rakhimova
- Sabalenka’s 11-2 clay record and 69% break point saves make her a lock at 1.01 odds
- Her 1.8 aces/match offers value for over 2.5 aces at 1.80 odds.
- Sabalenka’s 6-2, 6-2 H2H win suggests under 16.5 games (1.90 odds).
- Aryna's 11-2 clay form supports the -7.5 games handicap at 1.82 odds.
- Kamilla’s 49% break point conversion makes +7.5 games a safe bet at 1.94 odds.
French Open 2025 R128 Predictions and Betting Picks
Making 1.01 the favorite, Aryna Sabalenka, with an 11-2 clay record, 66.7% points won on the first serve, and a 2-0 H2H record against Kamilla Rakhimova, takes the limelight. Rakhimova's 5-10 clay record and 0% tiebreak win rate do not look good compared to Sabalenka's perfect 100% tiebreak record and 69% break point save rate, even though Sabalenka has only converted 49% of the break points against her.
Sabalenka's momentum might be unaffected after the recent Rome QF defeat against Zheng, while Rakhimova's double faults (3.6/match) could prove costly.
Expect Sabalenka to cruise to a straight-sets win, based on baseline powder.
Below are the top betting tips for this match:
Bet Pick: Sabalenka -7.5 games @ 1.78 Odds on 1xbet
Bet Tip: Sabalenka -7.5 games @ 1.81 Odds on Betway
Value Tip: Under 16.5 games @ 2.00 Odds on Bet365
Other predictions
