Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa: Prediction for the Match on May 31, 2025
Its May 31, 2025, for cacophonic rivalry, with the red clay pulsing at Roland Garros on which Daria Kasatkina (WTA 17) will be coming head-to-head with Paula Badosa (WTA 10) for the 32nd round of the French Open 2025 in Paris. Kasatkina emerged to win 2-0 against Leolia Jeanjean as Badosa defeated Elena-Gabriela Ruse 2-1. Given Badosa at 1.49 and Kasatkina at 2.637 odds, their 4-3 H2H—Kasatkina's last-victory incident being Badosa's retirement—only adds the number three to the edge.
Kasatkina wants to evoke the grit of the Land Down Under, while Badosa will try to reclaim her claycourt throne. The underdog prowess fighting its way to the top, or a Spanish powermace, ready to silence the crowd.
Take a plunge through stats, form, and predictions for this clay-court spectacle!
Claim Welcome Bonus🇦🇺 Daria Kasatkina: form and statistics
Daria Kasatkina is storming onto Parisian clay courts just like an Australian wildfire, and nothing aside from her gritty determination would seem to stand in their way to snuff out Paula Badosa’s dream! Ranked WTA 17, Kasatkina in her late-tilted form has played 4-6 with success in two recent matches, May 29 victory over Leolia Jeanjean in two sets, 6-4 and 6-2, winning points off her first serve 63% of the time, and converting six break points while averaging 5.3 double faults per match on clay, the numbers of which underline in-consistency of character. Her 4-4 clay record off only this year shows 55.8% on points off first serves and 48% in conversion of break points, coupled with 0% in-win percentage on tiebreakers, which signals difficulty under pressure.
Since the switch to Australia in March 2025, the win this time here for Kasatkina is her first ever at a Grand Slam as an Aussie, bolstering confidence. Before this win, she said to The Guardian, “I feel free and happy” even after a 1-6, 3-6 loss against Emma Raducanu in Strasbourg. The fuel for her fire is the 4-3 head-to-head advantage against Badosa, which includes a retirement win in the 2024 Ningbo semifinal. Will this wildfire, despite all her double-fault woes, blaze past Badosa, or will inconsistency put out the flames?
🇪🇸 Paula Badosa: form and statistics
Paula waltzes onto the red clay as a Spanish bullfighter, her hammer forehand serving as a cape flung willy-nilly against Kasatkina’s advance! Currently ranked number 10 in the WTA, with an unimpressive 6-4 edge, Badosa holds a 2-1 advantage against Elena-Gabriela Ruse after having their last meeting on the 29th of May-this year: 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, with five aces, 68% first-serve points won, and five break points converted, but with an average of 4.5 double faults per match giving away signs of pressure.
She is claimed to be 3-0 on clay this year, winning 65.8% of first-serve points and converting 55% of break points, while an unfortunate 0% win rate in tie-break points gives her something to aspire to. Badosa, 27, had reached the quarters of the 2021 French Open and was named the WTA Comeback Player of 2024 after some injury setbacks.
She snatched a victory over Naomi Osaka in the first round, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, stating, according to BBC Sport, "I'm back and stronger." The 3-4 H2H deficit against Kasatkina, a sour retirement loss in Ningbo 2024 included, will hurt, but she shines on those clays. Can this matador tame the wildfire—with a few double faults thrown in—or will the ghosts of past losses cloud her swing?
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Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa Head-to-Head Statistics
The headlining duel of this event is between Daria Kasatkina and Paula Badosa, with Kasatkina leading 4-3. Their rivalry kindled in the 2024 Ningbo semifinals when Badosa retired after dropping the first set 4-6. Things are even on clay at 1-1: Badosa having smashed Kasatkina 6-1, 6-1 in Stuttgart 2023, and Kasatkina returning the favor by winning Rome 2022 6-4, 6-4. However, the break point numbers hint that Kasatkina has the slight edge in that department at 48%, while Badosa sits higher at 55%. Badosa clocks an ace every two games at 3.0, practically tripling the output from Kasatkina at a mere 1.0.
On X, the excitement buzzes with the crowd divided on whether Kasatkina's grit or Badosa's power will go down victoriously. So, on the Parisian clay, will the Aussie extend her lead, or can the Spaniard bring it back? This clash will certainly set the narrative by far!
Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa Betting Tips and Odds
- Kasatkina’s 48% break points converted and Badosa’s 55% suggest under 21.5 games at 1.92 odds for a tight match.
- Badosa's 3.0 aces/match and 65.8% first-serve points won back Badosa -3.5 games at 1.95 odds.
- Kasatkina’s 5.3 and Badosa’s 4.5 double faults/match on clay support over 5.5 total double faults at 1.87 odds.
- Both players’ break point stats align with over 8.5 total breaks at 1.90 odds.
- Their 0% tiebreak win rates on clay back no tiebreaks at 1.85 odds.
Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa Match Prediction
The stadium of the French Open trembles with anticipation with Daria Kasatkina (2.637) taking on Paula Badosa (1.49) in an R32 thriller of the event. She does show fight with a 4-6 record and 2-0 in Jeanjean wins—63% in first-serve points, 6 breaks—but 5.3 double faults per match and 4-4 on clay show her weak side. Badosa's run of 6-4 and 2-1 in wins against Ruse—5 aces, 68% first-serve points won—shows her resilience, with her 3-0 record on clay and 55% conversion on break points making the case even further.
Their 4-3 H2H, including Kasatkina's win in Ningbo 2024, adds intrigue, but Badosa's recent form and quarterfinals in 2021 tilt it her way. Kasatkina's grit can still test the solidity of Badosa's power on clay.
Below are the top picks for this game:
Prediction: Badosa to win in straight sets @ 2.21 Odds on 1xbet
Bet Tip: Under 21.5 games @ 1.92 Odds on Betway
Main Bet Tip: Badosa -3.5 games @ 1.95 Odds on Bet365
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