Giulio Zeppieri vs Carlos Alcaraz: Prediction and odds on the Match on 26 May 2025
Being held on May 27th, the Round of 128 sees a premier clash between Italian Giulio Zeppieri (ATP 306) and Spanish defending champion Carlos Alcaraz (ATP 2). Zeppieri comes in fresh off an 8-2 form in qualifiers, as he meets a hot Alcaraz, 9-1 after winning the Italian Open. Alcaraz has a head-to-head lead of 1-0; however, Zeppieri's current winning streak in three matches brings some flavor.
With Alcaraz heavily favorite at 1.012 compared to Zeppieri's long shot at 23.00, can the underdog survive on clay? Would Alcaraz's recovery from injury and his longstanding rivalry with Sinner add some drama to the meeting, as Zeppieri looks to take advantage of home support?
We take a look at our analysis involving stats, trends, and news, equipping you with sharp betting insights for this opening-round clash—keep on reading!
Claim Welcome Bonus🇮🇹 Giulio Zeppieri: form and statistics
Like a Roman gladiator, Giulio Zeppieri storms onto the clay at Roland Garros with the fiery spirit of the home crowd behind him. Ranked ATP 306, Zeppieri boasts an 8-2 record all year and 4-3 on the clay in 2025. His latest qualifier win over Federico Agustín Gómez in Roland Garros was a 6-1, 6-4 performance with stats showing 7 aces, 3 double faults, 77% on first serves, 80% points won on good first serves, 3 out of 3 break points saved, and 3 break points converted.
Clay stats for 2025 include first serves in at 65.5%, 67.3% points won on first serves, 85.8% points won on second serves, a number of aces at 5.7 per match, double faults at 3.1 per match, retaining 63% break points when under pressure, converting 47% break points, and must not forget the 1/1 win in tiebreaks.
Thanks to Kei Nishikori's withdrawal, Zeppieri has managed to get through three matches and six sets in qualifiers, thereby preparing him for a very challenging game against Alcaraz. His aggressive serving and 47% conversion of break points may well give the champ a few tests; impressive consistency will be his saving grace.
🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz: form and statistics
Carlos Alcaraz graces the red dirt of Roland Garros like a matador, delighting the Parisian audience with his flair and power. ATP no. 2, Alcaraz enters with 9-1 form and 15-1 on clay in 2025.
In the Italian Open final, anyway, he eked out a win against Jannik Sinner, 6-7, 1-6, with 4 aces, 2 double faults, 64% first serve, 73% first serve points won, 2/2 break points saved, and 2 break points converted. He averaged 66.4% first serve, 68.8% first serve points won, 87.3% second serve, 1.6 aces per match, 2.9 double faults per match, 65% break points saved, 42% break points converted, and 83% tiebreak wins on clay in 2025.
His Monte Carlo and Italian Open titles, coupled with his comeback through a right adductor tear and hamstring injury, are marks of his absolute prime form. With a 6-match, 7-set streak and a possible Sinner final impending, he is a clay court giant ready to batter Zeppieri.
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👥 Giulio Zeppieri vs Carlos Alcaraz Head-to-Head Statistics
Carlos Alcaraz takes the 1-0 lead in their head-to-head, winning by the usual 2-1 scoreline (7-5, 4-6, 6-3) in the Umag semifinals back in 2022. The bright Alcaraz prowess on clay, where he managed to convert 42% of his break points against Zeppieri's 47%. Having an average of 5.7 aces per match on clay, Zeppieri could quickly get sets into tiebreaks, which are won by Alcaraz 83% of the time, while Zeppieri stands at 1/1.
In clay court trades, Alcaraz's baseline consistency, going 15-1 this year, would surely triumph over Zeppieri's 4-3 career record, yet the fiery side of the Italian is his recent run of six-set matches. This R128 showdown, Alcaraz's experience facing Zeppieri's momentum, with history favoring the Spaniard.
📉 Giulio Zeppieri vs Carlos Alcaraz Betting Tips and Odds
- Alcaraz’s 15-1 clay record and 68.8% first serve points won make him a lock at 1.012 odds
- His 5.7 aces/match on clay offers value for over 4.5 aces at 1.90 odds.
- Alcaraz’s 2022 Umag win (22 games) and form suggest under 27.5 games (1.87 odds).
- Alcaraz’s 15-1 clay form supports the -9.5 games handicap at 1.68 odds.
- Zeppieri’s 63% break point saves make +9.5 games a viable bet at 2.13 odds.
Giulio Zeppieri vs Carlos Alcaraz Match Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz (1.012) is the hottest pick in the here-and-now with a perfect 15-1 clay record, winning 68.8% of his first serve points and a H2H 1-0 against Giulio Zeppieri (23.00). He might be slightly threatened by Zeppieri's 8-2 form on clay and some 5.7 aces per match, but with a 4-3 clay record and 3.1 double faults allowed, Zeppieri may never see the level of break point-save efficiency Alcaraz achieves (65%) or tiebreak win percentage (83%).
Alcaraz is in top form, having recently won the Italian Open and coming off an injury, whereas Zeppieri's run through qualification just doesn't have enough depth to pose a real threat. Expect Alcaraz to strut his stuff and win this one in straight sets on his own ground.
Below are the top bet picks for this match:-
Match Prediction: Alcaraz -9.5 games @ 1.61 on Bet365
Bet Tip: Alcaraz -9.5 games @ 1.68 on Betway
Main Bet Tip: Under 27.5 games @ 1.87 on 1xbet
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