Jasmine Paolini vs Ajla Tomljanovic: Prediction and odds on the Match on 28 May 2025
On May 28, the Round of 64 begins and brings forth a battle at Roland Garros between the Italian Jasmine Paolini (WTA 47) and Australian underdog Ajla Tomljanovic (WTA 71). Paolini, favored at 1.096, is 8-2 in her recent matches and had a 2-1 R128 win over Yuan Yue, while Tomljanovic has a 6-4 mark following a straight-set victory over Maya Joint and is looking to upset the odds of 7.1.
It's a maiden showdown, and this tilt on clay will be Paolini's unbeaten Italian Open form versus Tomljanovic's never-say-die effort at the comeback. With the match start time set at 12:00 GMT, our analysis off stats and trends will give you some very sharp picks—read on!
Claim Welcome Bonus🇮🇹 Jasmine Paolini: form and statistics
Ranked WTA 4, she is at an 8-2 form and holds an 11-2 record on clay in the year 2025. Paolini won R128 versus Yuan Yue, 6-1, 4-6, 6-3, hitting 1 ace with no double faults, 78% first serve in, 61% first serve points won, 7/12 break points saved, and 8 break points converted.
Conversely, Paolini's 2025 clay stats are 74.9% first serve, 59.6% first serve points won, 93.8% second serve, 0.9 aces/match, 1.0 double faults/match, 51% break points saved, 54% converted, and 0% tiebreak wins.
Paolini is a force to be reckoned-with on clay, having lifted the Italian Open trophy this year for the second WTA 1000 title and reaching the 2024 French Open final. Furthermore, Paolini graced the cover of Vanity Fair Italia, where she spoke candidly about mental health, thereby raising her profile ahead of this R64 match against Tomljanovic.
🇦🇺 Ajla Tomljanovic: form and statistics
Australian at heart, Ajla Tomljanovic bolts onto the Roland Garros clay and puts her tenacity into quite a show on the red dirt! WTA No. 71, Tomljanovic holds down 6-4 form and 8-4 clay record in 2025. On her path to the 2-0 R128 victory over Maya Joint, she made an ace, committed 4 double faults, hit 67% first serve, won 62% of first serve points, saved 3/4 break points, and converted 5 break points.
For clay in 2025, she boasts a 69.6% first serve, 60.4% first serve points won, 79.3% second serve, 1.2 aces per match, 3.9 double faults per match, 55% break points saved, 40% break points converted, and 0% tiebreak wins.
Now coming with tremendous resilience are the 2025 semifinals at the Moroccan Open and the First Round of 128 win after the knee injury and uterine fibroids, while the 3.9 double faults per match stand out as a glaring weak spot against Paolini's receiving game.
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Jasmine Paolini vs Ajla Tomljanovic Head-to-Head Statistics
Jasmine Paolini and Ajla Tomljanovic have never met in a Head-to-Head, making this R64 their first bump. Paolini’s 11-2 clay record and 54% conversion on break points have the slight edge over Tomljanovic’s 8-4 and 40%, and in break point saves, Tomljanovic leads with 55% to Paolini’s 51%. Both are 0% on tiebreaks on clay this year, so it should be set-driven. Having won 93.8% of points on her second serve, Paolini holds serve better than Tomljanovic, who won only 79.3.% points on her second serve.
With no past matches on which to draw, the first will pit Paolini's current form against the grit of Tomljanovic on clay.
Jasmine Paolini vs Ajla Tomljanovic Betting Tips and Odds
- Paolini's 11-2 clay record and 54% break point conversion make her a lock at 1.096 odds.
- Tomljanovic's 55% break point saves support +5.5 games at 2.15 odds.
- Paolini’s 2-1 R128 win and Tomljanovic’s 3.9 double faults/match suggest under 18.5 games at 1.97 odds.
- Paolini’s 61% first serve points won backs the -5.5 games handicap at 1.666 odds.
- Tomljanovic's 60.4% first serve points won offer value for over 1.5 break points converted at 1.80 odds.
Jasmine Paolini vs Ajla Tomljanovic Match Prediction
Jasmine Paolini currently holds a slight advantage with an 11-2 record on clay, including Italian Open titles, along with 93.8% of points won on serve 2 over Ajla Tomljanovic.
Tomljanovic has put up resistance with an 8-4 record on clay and a first-round win against Danka Kovinic. On the other hand, her 3.9 double faults per match and 40% break points conversion don't quite match up with Paolini's consistency of saving 51% of breaking points.
Paolini's remarkable comeback in the first round against Yuan Yue is proof of her stalwart nature under pressure. Given these, expect a straight-sets win for Paolini utilizing her consistency.
Below are the top betting picks for this exciting clash:
Prediction: Paolini -5.5 games @ 1.65 Odds on 1xbet
Bet Tip: Paolini -5.5 games @ 1.666 Odds on Betway
Main Bet Tip: Under 18.5 games 1.97 Odds on Bet365
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