Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz: Prediction for the Match on June 3, 2025

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz: Prediction for the Match on June 3, 2025

Fans, the tension in the air is palpable. On June 3, 2025, at 12:00, Court Philippe Chatrier will witness a blockbuster quarterfinal featuring Tommy Paul (No. 12) versus Carlos Alcaraz (No. 2) in the French Open. This red clay showdown will pit Paul's never-say-die spirit against Alcaraz's defending-champion clout for a ticket to the semi-finals. Alcaraz has never really been held back, holding a slight 5-2 lead in the head-to-head; though Paul's Olympic victory in 2024 at least keeps things spicy. The Flash favorite stands here at 1.086 odds, while Tommy is a distant 8.2 (BetMGM). Coming off some gritty wins, Paul went into the quarterfinals also ending a 22-year drought for an American. That said, what else are we waiting for? Time for the breakdown.

Tommy Paul: form and statistics

Tommy Paul is an American ironman forging history at Roland Garros. The 27-year-old No. 12 in the world has racked up a 22-11 record for 2025, with a 9-4 record on clay. He's the first American male to reach a French Open quarterfinal since Andre Agassi in 2003, at which stage he defeated Alexei Popyrin 6-3, 6-3, and 6-3 on May 31 (ABC News, June 1). It is the type of win to preserve one's energy: 61% service games won and 38% of break points converted in 1 hour and 45 minutes. The clay season has seen him make semifinal appearances in Rome and Dallas, but his endurance after back-to-back five-setters poses a question. Posts on X have dubbed him a "dark horse" as fans try to hype his Olypmic clash with Alcaraz. Can Paul pull it off?

Carlos Alcaraz: form and statistics

Carlos Alcaraz is the clay court king defending his 2024 crown. The 22-year-old Spaniard, ranked No. 2, boasts a record of 31-5 in 2025, 18-1 on clay, having won Monte-Carlo and Rome. He is into his third consecutive Roland Garros quarterfinal after beating Ben Shelton 7-6(8), 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 on June 1, hitting 47 winners in a 3-hour-19-minute battle (Yahoo Sports, June 1). Alcaraz's clay court statistics for 2025 speak of winning 79.5 % of his service games and 43.3% of return games, highlighting his high versatility. Social media is buzzing about his 100th clay win, although some are mentioning possible fatigue setting in after four-setters. Will he fend off Paul's challenge?

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Head-to-Head Statistics

Alcaraz leads 5-2, holding a 2-1 advantage on clay. Their last meeting was Alcaraz winning 6-3, 7-6(7) at the Olympics on 1 August 2024, after Paul rallied from 2-5 down in the second set (josemorgado on X). Paul won on hard courts (Canada 2022-23), while Alcaraz dominates elsewhere, with three of those seven matches going to three sets, averaging 27 games. Posts on X describe a "blockbuster" history, with Paul's Olympic battle giving hope. This rematch on clay may turn the tide—will Paul strike back?

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Betting Tips and Odds

• Alcaraz's 18-1 clay record backs Alcaraz to win at 1.086 odds.
• Paul's 9-4 clay mark supports over 5.5 games in the first set at 1.85 odds.
• Their three-set trend leans toward over 32.5 games at 1.85 odds.
• Alcaraz's 43.3% return rate backs under 2.5 sets for Paul at 1.80 odds.
• Paul’s grit suggests over 9.5 games in the second set at 1.87 odds.

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Match Prediction

A quarterfinal with so much drama is set for June 3, 2025, at 12:00 on Court Philippe Chatrier, with Tommy Paul (8.2) taking on Carlos Alcaraz (1.086). While Paul has been fighting hard for his 9-4 clay record and a 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 win against Popyrin, serving at 61% in the service games, Alcaraz stands on his side with an 18-1 clay record and outings that include a win 7-6(8), 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 over Shelton, with 47 winners. The head-to-head stands 5-2 with Alcaraz in favor, but with Paul pushing in the Olympics, it is close. Alcaraz will most probably lead, thus Paul will force a fourth set.

Below are the top picks for the match:

Prediction: Alcaraz wins 3-1 @ 3.3 odds on Bet365

Bet Tip: Over 32.5 games @ 1.85 odds on Betway

Main Bet Tip: Over 3.5 sets @ 1.95 odds on 1xbet