Aryna Sabalenka vs Cristina Bucsa Prediction: World No.1 faces spirited Spaniard at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center

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Belarus
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31 Aug 2025 23:40
Spain
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Tennis Grand Slam US Open New York USA Round of 16
Date: 31-August-2025
Kickoff: 18:00
Venue: National Tennis Centre New York USA 
Raphael George
30 Aug 2025
07:48
All time statistics:
1929
1167
96
60.43%
Statistics
Odds
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Odds 1,6
Bet Type Over 17 total games
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Cristina Bucsa: Prediction for the Match on August 31, 2025

In New York, Aryna Sabalenka will clash with Cristina Bucsa in the round of 16 at the 2025 US Open, giving us more drama-filled tennis. This Sabalenka vs Bucsa prediction looks at recent results, ranking, and other factors at Flushing Meadows, inscribed by the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Sabalenka’s powerful serving and steady play in tiebreaks meet Bucsa’s current drive and aggressive shot-making in a familiar battle of experience versus momentum. 

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As the tournament favorite and the WTA world No. 1, Aryna Sabalenka is advancing to the Round of 16 with the hopes of defending her US Open title. Her power game and serving aggression have proven to be effective this fortnight. Sabalenka further solidified her big-match temperament by closing a winding third-round match with a composed tiebreak win against Leylah Fernandez 6-3, 7-6(2). Sabalenka’s season has been built on headline results on hard courts and a noticeable improvement in clutch play during deciding moments, especially tiebreaks, and her opponent this time is no different. That mindset, developed over Grand Slams and WTA 1000 tournaments, makes her the favorite. In recent on-court remarks, she mentioned that the victory was emotionally important and that getting even fueled her focus. Look for her serve to be the key weapon; her adversaries should remain on the front foot to continually throw off her rhythm and timing. She has extensive experience in pressure points and chooses attacking tactics over playing it safe.

As an unseeded player, Cristina Bucsa makes her way into the Round of 16 with fresh and strong energy. As the WTA rankings show, she ranks 95th, and with good reason having battled through qualifiers and tour events. At Flushing Meadows, she defeated Elise Mertens in a hard-fought third-round match, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3, following her victory over Alexandra Eala in the earlier rounds. Bucsa mixes stout defense, angles, and sudden aggression, which in a way defines her play style. Higher seeds have struggled with her play style this fortnight. In her interviews, Bucsa has downplayed expectations of her performance, stating that she is enjoying the run. It seems that she is simply embracing the process, which translates to aggressive play. Social media and tournament coverage have put a spotlight on her as an underdog, while momentum-sensitive bettors might see value in her continued rise. While her serve might falter when under pressure, her aggressive returns and court skills demand her opponents engage in long rallies, which heightens the likelihood of an upset. There will be long sets and tactical changes if Bucsa maintains her aggressiveness through the match.

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Sabalenka and Bucsa have never met on the professional tour.

  • Sabalenka to win outright – The world No.1 has not dropped a set this US Open and carries a 75% win rate on hard courts in 2025. (1.042 odds)
  • Bucsa to win a set – She upset Elise Mertens in three sets and thrives when matches extend, winning 60% of her deciding sets this year. (3.65 odds)
  • Over 17.5 total games – Both Sabalenka’s last match (7-6 set) and Bucsa’s previous upset (three sets) pushed scorelines long, making this a strong angle. (1.74 odds)
  • Sabalenka to win a tiebreak – She’s riding an 18-match tiebreak winning streak, highlighted in her victory over Fernandez. Bucsa often stretches sets to 7-5/7-6, so a breaker is likely.
  • Match to go over 2.5 sets – Bucsa’s third-round win and Sabalenka’s tested tiebreak suggest extended rallies; three sets feel likely. (4.85 odds)

I’m convinced Sabalenka will advance, but Bucsa’s form suggests she won’t fold quickly. Her ability to force three sets and drag top players into long games makes this Round of 16 clash volatile for bettors.

My best 3 betting picks: 

📌 Over 17 total games @ 1.6 odds on Bet365

📌 First set over 8.5 games @ 1.69 odds on Betway

📌 Aryna Sabalenka Win & Over 16.5 games @ 1.6 odds on 1xbet

Odds
Bet Type
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Odds 1,6
Bet Type Over 17 total games
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Odds 1,69
Bet Type First set over 8.5 games
Bonus 250 USD
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Odds 1,6
Bet Type Aryna Sabalenka Win & Over 16.5 games
Bonus 100 EUR
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