US Open 2025 Semifinal Prediction: Sabalenka vs Pegula
The prime-time US Open semifinal sets up a showdown for the top-seeded Aryna Sabalenka and No. 4 Jessica Pegula at Arthur Ashe Stadium. The rematch of last year's final headlines a packed night session with storylines about Sabalenka defending her title, while Pegula is determined to claim her first Grand Slam in her home country. We go through the H2H trends, form, trusted odds, value angles, and with smart tennis betting tips after the series: winner combo, total games, include tiebreak possibilities.
Claim Welcome Bonus🇧🇾 Aryna Sabalenka (form & statistics)
World Number One Sabalenka thus enters her second week's title defence as the top seed at Arthur Ashe Stadium. She reached the semis via walkover after Marketa Vondrousova withdrew with a knee injury and should therefore be fresher than most. She indeed has yet to drop a set on court these two weeks and has had to win two tiebreaks. Throughout 2025, Sabalenka has been a semifinalist in every major and also won the Miami Open, confirming her hard-court credentials. She won last year's New York final against Pegula 7-5, 7-5, while she also defeated her in the Miami championship in March 7-5, 6-2. Former opponent Vondrousova's injury elicited a sympathetic feeling from her, and she wished her the best, adding, however, that all her thoughts are focused on defending her crown.
🇺🇸 Jessica Pegula (form & statistics)
Jessica Pegula, world No. 4, has entered the semifinals of the US Open without dropping a set, thanks to a calm 6-3, 6-3 victory over Barbora Krejcikova. Her baseline clarity and first-strike returns have given her very few opportunities for opponents throughout the fortnight. The American is into back-to-back New York semifinals and is looking for revenge from last year's final defeat at the hands of Sabalenka. She has also been in strong form throughout 2025, with the majors and her runner-up finish in Miami in which Sabalenka denied her 7-5, 6-2. "I feel very confident in who I am and what I am doing right now, but I also know it's going to get really tough," Pegula said after the quarterfinal. It has been an efficient path for Pegula, who is now going to face the No. 1 seed again-well supported by the partisan crowd and her reliable serve-plus-forehand patterns.
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👥Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Head-to-Head Statistics
Sabalenka leads 7–2 and has won the last three meetings, including the 2024 US Open final (7-5, 7-5) and 2025 Miami final (7-5, 6-2).
🏷️Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Betting Tips and Odds
- Sabalenka to Win + Over 20.5 Games —Sabalenka dominates the H2H, but Pegula’s consistency pushes matches long.
- Over 20.5 Total Games – Both players serve well; Sabalenka’s recent breakers suggest at least 21 games.
- Sabalenka -4.0 Games Handicap – The world No. 1 has covered this line in three straight wins vs Pegula.
- Tiebreak in Match - Yes — Sabalenka has already played two tiebreaks this tournament; Ashe night sessions often run tight.
- Correct Score Sabalenka 2–0 – Straight-set wins in 2024 US Open final and 2025 Miami final back this outcome.
🎯Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Match Prediction
I'm taking the side of the champion's first-strike power and of the match-up data at this point: Pegula's clean running and home crowd support should stretch the games, but Sabalenka's serve-plus-forehand patterns and 7–2 H2H tilt all the weight on her part.
My best 3 bet tips:-
📌Sabalenka to win + Over 18.5 games @ 1.93 odds on 1xbet
📌Over 20 total games @ 1.615 odds on Betway
📌Tiebreak in the match – Yes @ 2.84 odds on Bet365
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